AZ a non-toss up toss up

[millwx]

A new Arizona poll (June 10th-13th, 600 LV, by Market Solutions Group) shows Bush 44%, Kerry 41%, Nader 2%, Other 2%, and undecided 11%.

I think it's safe to presume that AZ is at least "Lean Bush" since every poll shows him ahead.  But the last two have him up by only 3%, and this latest one was conducted during the Reaganathon.

By most people's standards (5% lead), it looks like AZ is a toss-up.  It's to GW Bush as Washington is to Kerry (all the polls have Kerry ahead in Washington, so he almost certainly is; but they're also all close enough so that the 5% "rule" makes it a toss-up).

[Ben.]

by Market Solutions

Never heard of the firm, and going on gut i get the sense that that poll may not be very good. Most polls are showing AZ less strongly Bush than in 2000 but still highly likley to go for "W" in November.  

[millwx]

Most polls are showing AZ less strongly Bush than in 2000 but still highly likley to go for "W" in November.

Yes, they do all show Bush winning there... as I said.  But I'm not sure what "most polls" you're talking about.  Since April only one poll (out of about 5) shows him with greater than a 5% lead... and that was in a 3-way matchup; in that same poll Bush was only up 4% head-to-head (though the 3-way may be more correct, since Nader has gained ballot access in AZ).  Well respected Public Opinion Strategies, in fact, also showed it only a 3% Bush lead in AZ.

Anyway, yes, I have no doubt that AZ will go to Bush.  But, I just find these non-tossup tossups to be interesting.  There are a lot of states grouped into the "tossup" category that are consistently polling in favor of one candidate.  Check out the list, using the tossup criteria here on the Atlas:

Washington: 6 polls, 6-of-6 for Kerry.  A non-tossup tossup.
Oregon: 6 polls, 3 Kerry, 2 Bush, 1 tie.  A true tossup!
New Mexico: 2 polls, 1 Kerry, 1 Bush.  A true tossup!
Minnesota: 5 polls, 5-of-5 for Kerry.  A non-tossup tossup.
Iowa: 7 polls, 6-of-7 for Kerry.  A non-tossup tossup.
Wisconsin: 6 polls, 4 Kerry, 2 Bush.  Borderline tossup.
Michigan: 9 polls, 8 Kerry, 1 Bush.  A non-tossup tossup.
Ohio: 7 polls, 3 Kerry, 4 Bush.  A true tossup!
West Virginia: 6 polls, 2 Kerry, 3 Bush, 1 tie.  A true tossup!
Pennsylvania: 8 polls, 6 Kerry, 2 Bush.  A non-tossup tossup.
New Hampshire: 5 polls, 2 Kerry, 1 Bush, 2 ties.  A true tossup!
Florida: 7 polls, 3 Kerry, 4 Bush.  A true tossup!

Depending on Dave's formula, Arizona *MIGHT* now get tossed into the tossup pool.  If so, it would be...
Arizona: 4 polls, 4 Bush.  A non-tossup tossup.

So... my point is, of the 12 "tossups" (not including AZ) almost half of them (5) look like solid "leaners".  If AZ now gets ruled a tossup, it's 6 of 13 that are solid "leaners".  So, we've really only got about 7 true tossups, and given some of the nuances, we might not even have that.  For example, Bush has been +5% and +7% in FL the last two polls... it may be truly "leaning" Bush.  On the flip side, the one poll in NH that Bush led was the oldest; the most recent 4 have been ties or Kerry leads... it's clearly VERY close there, but it may be truly "leaning" Kerry.  Similarly, Bush has led in 4 of the last 5 Ohio polls, with that 5th being the dreaded LA Times poll... so, OH may be "lean" Bush.

Sure, of course all of these "slight leans" are still in play.  The leader clearly only has, at best, a 3-5% lead... something easily surmountable by the trailing candidate if the news breaks his way and/or if he focuses his campaign on the state(s).  But, as it stands, I see only four truly undecided tossup states... Oregon, Wisconsin, West Virginia and New Mexico. .. and even Wisconsin is debatable as Bush led in only the two least reliable polls while Kerry led in the rest.

Oh, and incidentally, the two non-tossup tossups that Bush takes (FL and OH) would give him 269 EVs.  So, Kerry needs to pray for that heavy undecided break in his favor which seems so questionable, or he'd better do something.  A tie goes to the incumbent, given the makeup of the House.  Lucky for Kerry, he's got 4+ months and can also hope that some of Bush's poll numbers reflect the Reagan effect.  Otherwise, as things stand now, he's toast.  If he takes all of his non-tossup tossups PLUS all of the true tossups (WV, OR, WI and NM), he'll tie Bush at 269 EVs.

[The Vorlon]

Link to Arizona Poll please?

[millwx]

Link to Arizona Poll please?

The Vorlon... got it off of Polling Report subscription section.  So, I don't really have a link.  However, it was done for the Arizona Republic.  I went to their web site...
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/
...the story is on their front page (second story down) but, oddly, the link doesn't work.

...uh, just tried it again, it worked...
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0620azpoll20.html

[The Vorlon]

Link to Arizona Poll please?

The Vorlon... got it off of Polling Report subscription section.  So, I don't really have a link.  However, it was done for the Arizona Republic.  I went to their web site...
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/
...the story is on their front page (second story down) but, oddly, the link doesn't work.

...uh, just tried it again, it worked...
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0620azpoll20.html

[??????????]

Can we get a graphic Vorlon?

[Gustaf]

Well, I'd say there are lean-tossups and lean-solids. North Carolina and Maine would be a lean-solids, wheras Arizona and Michigan would be lean-tossups.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Sorry Gustaf,

The recent Arizona PUBLIC polls have been seriously defective.

Arizona is solidy Bush.

Bush has a better chance of carrying California than Kerry does of carrying Arizona.

The poll cited is so defective it makes the recent LA Times poll look good.

[millwx]

The recent Arizona PUBLIC polls have been seriously defective.

Arizona is solidy Bush.

Bush has a better chance of carrying California than Kerry does of carrying Arizona.

The poll cited is so defective it makes the recent LA Times poll look good.

Sorry Carl,

The Public Opinion Strategies poll, which is largely agreed to NOT be defective showed the same thing, a 3% Bush lead.  I don't disagree AT ALL with your notion that Bush will go to AZ.  But all this talk (not just by you) that Bush has a better chance of taking CA than Kerry has of taking AZ is just plain silly.  AZ is close, period.  Your accusation of the latest polls is not only unfounded, but not supported by the best "analyst" here...

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4200406080

[struct310]

AZ is solid Bush.  He will win by 8+%.  The recent polls have bias towards Kerry, especially the ASU one.

[The Vorlon]

Can we get a graphic Vorlon?

The 3% Bush lead is the same as a Public Opinion Strategies poll done recently, other than that I have no comment, other than to say POS is right a heck of alot more than they are wrong.

The newspaper article quoting "independant" opinion on this poll was a bit dubious.  The "independant" Pollster/Professor from ASU they quoted is about a "Bush Friendly" as say the LA Times, but that in and of it's self tells us nothing about the actual poll.

I have no history on the firm either.

Regarding POS: (Public Opinion Strategies)

POS is the pollster for a Dozen+ GOP senators, a big chunk of the House, half the GOP Governors...

POS Definitely gets the big "thumbs up" on my end.  These guys are good

And with POS, I think we can rule out a "liberal bias" with a reasonably high degree of certainty - Firms don't come any deeper shades of GOP Blue...

Link to POS Battleground polls

Bush won Arizona by 6.62% in 2000, and the Demographics are slowly sliding the Democrat's way in that state.

The result is not "crazy" but other than that, I don't have enough information to comment specifically on this poll.

GOP "base" is pretty complacent in that state, so the small lead number among "likely" voters reflects that.

Bush +2 to 4% - matches my map so I thinks it's "ok"

Arizona to Bush is like Minnesota to Kerry.

Bush should win the state, but he will have to defend it.  GOP has a good size registration advantage, if it gets really close, the GOP can always get a few extra % with a hard core GOTV effort.

Will post more later if I can on this poll if I get more detail.

[millwx]

Bush won Arizona by 6.62% in 2000, and the Demographics are slowly sliding the Democrat's way in that state.

The result is not "crazy" but other than that, I don't have enough information to comment specifically on this poll.

GOP "base" is pretty complacent in that state, so the small lead number among "likely" voters reflects that.

Bush +2 to 4% - matches my map so I thinks it's "ok"

Arizona to Bush is like Minnesota to Kerry.

Vorlon... thank you for the unbiased assessment.

[The Vorlon]

Bush won Arizona by 6.62% in 2000, and the Demographics are slowly sliding the Democrat's way in that state.

The result is not "crazy" but other than that, I don't have enough information to comment specifically on this poll.

GOP "base" is pretty complacent in that state, so the small lead number among "likely" voters reflects that.

Bush +2 to 4% - matches my map so I thinks it's "ok"

Arizona to Bush is like Minnesota to Kerry.

Vorlon... thank you for the unbiased assessment.

Trying to get all 50 states right this year

[Lunar]

Will you offer a different snapshot on November 2nd than your prediction you gave a while back?

(Kerry wins NV, NM, WV, and OH in that one)

[The Vorlon]

Will you offer a different snapshot on November 2nd than your prediction you gave a while back?

(Kerry wins NV, NM, WV, and OH in that one)

There are three demographic groups that are bouncing back and forth right now, to a rather surprising degree actually...

1) Married white women
2) Working class younger males
3) College Educated single men

The volatility in these groups makes it real hard to get a read on thing

For now anyway, NV, NM, WV, and OH for Kerry would be how I would bet on Nov 2nd.

[??????????]

Will you offer a different snapshot on November 2nd than your prediction you gave a while back?

(Kerry wins NV, NM, WV, and OH in that one)

There are three demographic groups that are bouncing back and forth right now, to a rather surprising degree actually...

1) Married white women
2) Working class younger males
3) College Educated single men

The volatility in these groups makes it real hard to get a read on thing

For now anyway, NV, NM, WV, and OH for Kerry would be how I would bet on Nov 2nd.

[Gustaf]

Carl,

I'd like to see some more proof before I take your word for that. Fact remains, Clinton won Arizona in 1996 and Bush only got just above 50% there in 2000. It's not solid, certainly not as solid as California.

[millwx]

I'd like to see some more proof

There is none.  For the last three months...

ASU (4/23-26) showed Bush 41%, Kerry 38%
BRC (4/29-5/4) had Bush 45%, Kerry 37%
KAET/ASU (5/20-5/23) had Bush 43%, Kerry 38%
POS (6/8) had Bush 48%, Kerry 45%
Market Solutions (6/10-6/13) had Bush 44%, Kerry 41%

The pro-Bushers will claim bias in the ASU polls... not an entirely unfounded accusation, but not a certain conclusion either.  Then they'll hang their hats on the BRC/Rocky Mountain poll... ignoring its large Nader factor (head-to-head it was much closer).  As for POS and Market Solutions?  I've heard one pro-Busher argue that the POS polls were all biased towards Kerry to try to invigorate the Republicans.  Give me a HUGE break.  Must be that vast right wing conspiracy!    Please.  And now that Market Solutions agrees?  Oh, well, no one is familiar with Market Solutions, so it must be biased too.  Sheesh, enough already!  Not only is there no "proof" that Bush is solid in AZ, there's not a single piece of evidence.  On top of that, folks here are really arguing over nuances anyway.  No one (you may think otherwise, I don't know) has stated any belief that Kerry will take Arizona.  Last I checked, Arizona doesn't partition their EVs.  So, whether Bush wins it by 1% or 12% is irrelevant.  The only relevance any of this has is strategy... if it's close, Bush will need to spend money in AZ to secure his victory.  And I'm sure Bush's team will believe these polls before believing some vague perception that he's "solid" in AZ... the average of these polls is 4.4%, and the single most reliable one (POS) has 3%.  So, Bush will, and probably already is, spending money in AZ.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Can we get a graphic Vorlon?

The 3% Bush lead is the same as a Public Opinion Strategies poll done recently, other than that I have no comment, other than to say POS is right a heck of alot more than they are wrong.

The newspaper article quoting "independant" opinion on this poll was a bit dubious.  The "independant" Pollster/Professor from ASU they quoted is about a "Bush Friendly" as say the LA Times, but that in and of it's self tells us nothing about the actual poll.

I have no history on the firm either.

Regarding POS: (Public Opinion Strategies)

POS is the pollster for a Dozen+ GOP senators, a big chunk of the House, half the GOP Governors...

POS Definitely gets the big "thumbs up" on my end.  These guys are good

And with POS, I think we can rule out a "liberal bias" with a reasonably high degree of certainty - Firms don't come any deeper shades of GOP Blue...

Link to POS Battleground polls

Bush won Arizona by 6.62% in 2000, and the Demographics are slowly sliding the Democrat's way in that state.

The result is not "crazy" but other than that, I don't have enough information to comment specifically on this poll.

GOP "base" is pretty complacent in that state, so the small lead number among "likely" voters reflects that.

Bush +2 to 4% - matches my map so I thinks it's "ok"

Arizona to Bush is like Minnesota to Kerry.

Bush should win the state, but he will have to defend it.  GOP has a good size registration advantage, if it gets really close, the GOP can always get a few extra % with a hard core GOTV effort.

Will post more later if I can on this poll if I get more detail.

With all due respect, I agree that in general POS is a good firm, but, like all other pollsters, they make errors from time to time.

I would like to see the internals of the POS survey, the dates the suvey was conducted,  the sample composition and the exact wording of all the questions asked.

There numbers simply do NOT reflect private surveys or external data (voter registration).

Excluding the south and border states, partisan voter registration is both available in most states, and is relatively accurate (compared to electoral history) in predicting results.  This data in Arizona is in marked contradiction to the "close' survey you cited.

One factor that has depressed Bush's support here somewhat (although not as much as the surveys cited indicate) is the lengthy deployments of National Guard units.  If Bush can get other countries to make a more substantial force contribution in Iraq, and get the Iraqis to assume more responsibility for their own internal defense against terrorists, I think most of the units will be brought hom and the issue will diffuse.

Another factor which briefly (slightly) hurt Bush in May was Gas prices (distances driven are higher in Arizona than in most states).  Since gas prices have declined about 13 cents a gallon in the last three weeks, this problem has largely evaporated.

Finally, Bush's guest worker proposal ticked off much of his base in March and April.  Since Bush has shut up about this proposal since then, the anger has considerably diminished.  I suppose that if you asked the respondents of their opinion about Bush's guest worker program as a lead in question, you would get a close result.

Also, with regard economic data, the most recent unemployment rate in my county (Pima) is 4.2%.  As you know, economic data is also a good indicator of election results.

As I previously noted, while I think Harris is a quality firm, I think their survey showing Bush ahead by ten point nationally is not unbelieveable.  

In conclusion, even with the problems cited above, Bush leads Kerry in Arizona by at least seven points.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Bush won Arizona by 6.62% in 2000, and the Demographics are slowly sliding the Democrat's way in that state.

The result is not "crazy" but other than that, I don't have enough information to comment specifically on this poll.

GOP "base" is pretty complacent in that state, so the small lead number among "likely" voters reflects that.

Bush +2 to 4% - matches my map so I thinks it's "ok"

Arizona to Bush is like Minnesota to Kerry.

Vorlon... thank you for the unbiased assessment.

I think if you review the posts on this forum, I am in general agreement with Vorlon (for whom I have considerable respect).

 However, I believe that Vorlon tends to place a little too much reliance on the history of the firm conducting the poll.  Even good pollsters get it wrong occasionally, for a number a reasons.  

Unfortunately we do not have the specifics on the POS survey at this time, which might shed light on why they are considerably off in their results.

I stand behind my previous statement regarding the Republic poll!

[Rococo4]

Bush is still a good bet to win AZ in 2004 - though he will have to campaign there and not take it for granted.  It should be close to a true toss up by 2008, or 2012 at the absolute latest.

McCain backing Bush openly and if he appears there with him will really help his solidify the state.