GOP Redirects Funds From Faltering Races

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Washington Post

Faced with a deteriorating political climate, Republican Party officials are hoping to keep control of the House and Senate with a strategy aimed at shoring up enough endangered incumbents to preserve their majorities, while scaling back planned spending on races that now appear unwinnable.

In recent days, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has given back television time it had reserved in Democratic-held districts in West Virginia, South Carolina and Ohio -- apparently concluding that those races are beyond reach unless something dramatic changes the national political environment in the 25 days before the Nov. 7 election.

The Republican National Committee, which is using its substantial resources to supplement the party's Senate campaign committee, has spent virtually all of its television money in just three states -- Ohio, Missouri and Tennessee -- hoping to build a levee strong enough to save those seats and the Senate majority.

Rest of article here

[Tender Branson]

The Republican National Committee, which is using its substantial resources to supplement the party's Senate campaign committee, has spent virtually all of its television money in just three states -- Ohio, Missouri and Tennessee -- hoping to build a levee strong enough to save those seats and the Senate majority.

Clear signs of the GOP playing defense now ...

[Deano963]

The Republican National Committee, which is using its substantial resources to supplement the party's Senate campaign committee, has spent virtually all of its television money in just three states -- Ohio, Missouri and Tennessee -- hoping to build a levee strong enough to save those seats and the Senate majority.

Clear signs of the GOP playing defense now ...

And, if the polls are to be believed, the RNC's strategy is not yet having an effect, at least in Ohio and Missouri. Heck, Sherrod Brown has actually increased his lead in several different polls since the barrage against him began.....

It seems voters are not so receptive to the 'taxes and terra' message of the GOP this year...

[Sam Spade]

This means the races of WV-01, SC-05 and OH-06, I presume.  (I've needed to lower WV-01 in the rankings myself, but have been sort of lazy about it).

This means that the Democratic races the GOP and Dems are actually contesting by putting decent money into (as I noted last night in another thread) are GA-08, GA-12, IA-03, IL-08 and VT-AL.

The two races on the periphery that I would think are still being observed are OR-05 and TX-17, in that order.  OR-05 is a self-funded GOP candidate, so I don't know how much funds they have to pour into there if they wanted to.

Rather small list, don't you think.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I still wonder why the GOP is even bothering with IA-03. Boswell has survived tough years before, he's certainly not going down this year.

IL-8 is the only one they have a serious chance of taking.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

IL-8 is the only one they have a serious chance of taking.

Exactly, they'll be lucky to get within 5 points of any Democrat besides Bean.

[Eraserhead]

They are wasting money on the Ohio Senate race. I would actually put it in Virginia if I was them.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

They are wasting money on the Ohio Senate race. I would actually put it in Virginia if I was them.

And while we're at it, the NRCC should spend $20 million on NY-26, because it'd look bad if Reynolds lost.

[Deano963]

They are wasting money on the Ohio Senate race. I would actually put it in Virginia if I was them.

I agree. Virginia should be their third firewall state, not Ohio. I don't think the $10 million the RNC is spending there is going to save Dewine.

[Gustaf]

I wouldn't really agree. DeWine is still within striking distance in Ohio and 2004 proved that there is a strong Republican machine. Even Pennsylvania and Montana still look competitive and they need to keep as many races as possible competitive. If they lose Virginia it's most likely over anyway (I really can't see the Democrats winning Virginia without winning the entire senate). Missouri should be their primal focus, if you ask me. That seems to be the pivotal state to me.

[Angel of Death]

They are cutting and running.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I wouldn't really agree. DeWine is still within striking distance in Ohio and 2004 proved that there is a strong Republican machine. Even Pennsylvania and Montana still look competitive and they need to keep as many races as possible competitive. If they lose Virginia it's most likely over anyway (I really can't see the Democrats winning Virginia without winning the entire senate). Missouri should be their primal focus, if you ask me. That seems to be the pivotal state to me.

I think Ohio is more or less lost to the GOP; they are going to get kicked hard on election day by the voters.  They've been in power so long in the state and there will be some notable casualties as people finally turn against them. 

I disagree about PA and MT; Santorum's campaign may close the gap in the final weeks but he is clearly not going to win and Burns is truly finished in Montana.  All the polling coming out of the states confirms it. 

I also cannot see the Democrats taking Virginia, nevertheless the GOP needs to defend it more robustly, Allen's current lead of around 3% is based up on his cash advantage over Webb and the DSCC is meeting that with ads now. 

I think you're right about Missouri, the demographics and the polls show that Talent is not done for like Santorum, DeWine and Burns yet and as McCaskill is behind in funding by spending more the RCCC could still force them to make sacrifices in Tennessee and Virginia.

[Deano963]

I wouldn't really agree. DeWine is still within striking distance in Ohio and 2004 proved that there is a strong Republican machine.

You're forgetting that Ohio Republicans don't have the anti-gay marriage amendment on the ballot this year to drive up turnout among conservatives like they did in '04. Without it, turnout will be lower and Dewine does not excite the Fundi base in the first place. Blackwell excites them and most will probably hold their nose to vote for Dewine, but that will not be enough to save him this year, not with an excited Dem base and him trailing badly among indies and moderates to Brown. This race is nowhere near as winnable for the GOP as VA is.

[adam]

It's the only reasonable thing to do at this point.