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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 351661 times)
jravnsbo
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« Reply #150 on: December 19, 2003, 11:08:53 pm »
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Honestly I've been wondering why Europeans care so much about our electiuons.  seems like we have more european democrats than american ones.

Not a big deal, but we just don't see the reverse, Americans could care less about European elections for the most part.


Sadly, I don't think they are jokes. Why would anyone join a forum like this with the sole purpose of making jokes?
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« Reply #151 on: December 19, 2003, 11:53:22 pm »
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Because with our electiuons we will rule the world.

Honestly I've been wondering why Europeans care so much about our electiuons.  seems like we have more european democrats than american ones.

Not a big deal, but we just don't see the reverse, Americans could care less about European elections for the most part.


Sadly, I don't think they are jokes. Why would anyone join a forum like this with the sole purpose of making jokes?
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« Reply #152 on: December 20, 2003, 04:46:23 am »
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Because with our electiuons we will rule the world.

Honestly I've been wondering why Europeans care so much about our electiuons.  seems like we have more european democrats than american ones.

Not a big deal, but we just don't see the reverse, Americans could care less about European elections for the most part.


Sadly, I don't think they are jokes. Why would anyone join a forum like this with the sole purpose of making jokes?

America is more important than most European states. Also, it is a matter on national ego. Americans have a tradition of not caring and not knowing about anything else besided their own country, living in their own little world, which occurs in most big states (China, France, Japan, the UK, etc). This works because you are big enough. It wouldn't work for Swedes since we live in a so small country!
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« Reply #153 on: December 20, 2003, 08:00:27 am »
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Because with our electiuons we will rule the world.

Honestly I've been wondering why Europeans care so much about our electiuons.  seems like we have more european democrats than american ones.

Not a big deal, but we just don't see the reverse, Americans could care less about European elections for the most part.


Sadly, I don't think they are jokes. Why would anyone join a forum like this with the sole purpose of making jokes?

America is more important than most European states. Also, it is a matter on national ego. Americans have a tradition of not caring and not knowing about anything else besided their own country, living in their own little world, which occurs in most big states (China, France, Japan, the UK, etc). This works because you are big enough. It wouldn't work for Swedes since we live in a so small country!

Unlike Europe, America is practically an island that is why we only care about us.
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« Reply #154 on: December 20, 2003, 10:27:00 am »
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Is this the ghost of G.P.Nye?
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« Reply #155 on: December 20, 2003, 12:00:36 pm »
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As a citizen of the UK, the 2004 election is importnant to me because the USA has a lot of influence. Decisions made by Bush for instance on the US economy, rebound not only on Wall Street but in London too. From my albeit limited experience, most Brits prefer the Democratic candidate, regardless of whether they are Labour, Conservative or Liberal Democrat voters themselves. The British public hate incompitent, 'folksy' politicians usually, so there was a strong dislike of George Bush even before the events of Iraq. I can remember most people I talked to thought highly of Clinton and wanted Gore to win in 2000. While I supported Bush's stance on Iraq (more to do with Tony Blair's assurances rather than Bush's), I hope he is defeated in 2004.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #156 on: December 21, 2003, 01:20:59 am »
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Humm I have some British friends too and they want Bush to win to keep the strong relationship with Blair.

REELECT PRESIDENT BUSH!
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« Reply #157 on: December 21, 2003, 02:27:34 am »
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Humm I have some British friends too and they want Bush to win to keep the strong relationship with Blair.

REELECT PRESIDENT BUSH!

Well, that depends on if Blair can get re-elected himself.

And they always say that you become friends with people who are most like you. So OF COURSE your British friends want Bush to win again....they are REPUBLICANS like you! (or think like a Republican anyway) lol Grin
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« Reply #158 on: December 21, 2003, 05:25:39 am »
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Blair won't have any trouble getting re-elected.
Trust me on this.
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« Reply #159 on: December 21, 2003, 10:32:43 am »
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Yes, you are right. Blair is a shoe-in come 2005/6. Blair does have a strong working relationship with Bush, but ideologically they clash. Blair and Clinton saw eye to eye on far more things than Blair and Bush do, and I would imagine that if a Democrat is elected in 2004, they will have just as strong a relationship. I have a sneaking suspicion that Blair wouldn't mind if Bush lost...as long as it's not to Dean!
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« Reply #160 on: December 21, 2003, 10:54:04 am »
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Agreed, although I doubt he would have any serious problems with Dean.
Kuchinich on the other hand...
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« Reply #161 on: December 21, 2003, 01:11:25 pm »
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No, some are some aren't I have lotso f friend son both sides of the aisle and across political spectrum across the world.


Humm I have some British friends too and they want Bush to win to keep the strong relationship with Blair.

REELECT PRESIDENT BUSH!

Well, that depends on if Blair can get re-elected himself.

And they always say that you become friends with people who are most like you. So OF COURSE your British friends want Bush to win again....they are REPUBLICANS like you! (or think like a Republican anyway) lol Grin
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« Reply #162 on: December 22, 2003, 07:19:11 am »
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Honestly I've been wondering why Europeans care so much about our electiuons.  seems like we have more european democrats than american ones.

Not a big deal, but we just don't see the reverse, Americans could care less about European elections for the most part.


Sadly, I don't think they are jokes. Why would anyone join a forum like this with the sole purpose of making jokes?

As a British citizen I am concerned what happens in the US, since it has a large impact on the UK. America catches a cold, the world sneezes, as the saying goes. For this reason I would prefer a Democrat to win the 2004 election. Democrats I believe are less isolationist, more internationalist and generally foster better international relations. This has to be a good thing. This is probably why pretty much all foreigners would prefer to see Dean in the white house than Bush. Bush just doesn't cut it with me. He comes across as a bit of a hick, no offense intended. He is more of a hunting, gun-toting, Bubba than an international statesmen. As someone said earlier this makes the British feel very uneasy! The vast majority of Britons distrust or have negative opinions of Bush.
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« Reply #163 on: December 22, 2003, 09:20:32 am »
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I agree that most Europeans would prefer Dean.  

Dean would carry western Europe handily.  Perhaps Howie needs to move to France and run for something.  He'll get slaughtered here.
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« Reply #164 on: December 22, 2003, 10:30:21 am »
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No, the French wouldn't elect an American come hell or high water, no matter how liberal!! He'd probably be right at home in the 'wet' wing (i.e liberal wing), of the Tory party. Even Dean isn't left enough for the Lib Dems or Labour, but I could easily see him being elected in Chipping Barnet :-)
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« Reply #165 on: December 22, 2003, 11:22:31 am »
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No, the French wouldn't elect an American come hell or high water, no matter how liberal!! He'd probably be right at home in the 'wet' wing (i.e liberal wing), of the Tory party. Even Dean isn't left enough for the Lib Dems or Labour, but I could easily see him being elected in Chipping Barnet :-)

Most people in Sweden think, quite rightly, that the Democrats pretty much correponds with the Swedish right, whereas the Republicans are off the edge! It can be seen, for example, that the Swedish left, left of centre, centre, right of centre and right hate Bush. The "conservative", or rather libertarian, right is split on whether to hate him or not.
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« Reply #166 on: December 22, 2003, 12:05:37 pm »
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Although it has to be noted that the Swedish "right" would be considered as leftish is most other countries!
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« Reply #167 on: December 22, 2003, 02:44:26 pm »
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Although it has to be noted that the Swedish "right" would be considered as leftish is most other countries!

Well, yeah, I suppose so...
Though, we have liberals (European ones), we just don't have any conservatives. Still, to cut taxes to, say, Finnish levels of 43% of GDP is seen as madly radical in Sweden, so I guess you are right.
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« Reply #168 on: December 23, 2003, 08:22:03 pm »
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Pennsylvania...I think will stay democratic.

Pennsylvania is basically a 3 region state.

The Southeast which consists of Philly and its burbs has been trending democratic and probably will continue to do so for the forseeable future. Southeastern PA is more like the Northeast as a whole...even the Republicans which usually have 49/51% of suburban registration (democrats still don't break the 40% mark there yet) are pretty liberal-the democrats in the city or the burbs go without saying. These republicans or the regionites as a whole probably will go for someone like Dean or Clark in the plus 60% range. Sad to say, but its true, and its the fastest growing part of the state.

The central PA...carville called it Alabama...very republican, very conservative...Bush should carry the T of pennsylvania easily...just a matter if its in the high 50%s or low 60%s.

But Bush's waffling on tariffs (which in my view should never have been implemented in the first place, but I'm from the SE anyway) will likely cost him the West of the state, where the GOP had been making large inroads...and making up the loses it had incurred back east. Now that Bush has removed the tariffs, he's likely to alienate voters in that area...probably costing him the state--then again, the state had been trending democratic since nov 2002 anyway with a democratic governor whose sure to use his weight to tip the state to the Ds anyway.

The bigger problem is not Pennsylvania, Bush doesn't have to win PA...its West Virginia, a state thats probably going to be hit the hardest by no more tariffs and has a strong democratic registration edge. Coupled with Ohio (Republicans haven't won the white house without it). Bush could be in serious trouble in the former steel belt.
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« Reply #169 on: December 23, 2003, 08:34:43 pm »
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Not against a Howard Dean type.  Ohio stays comfortably Republican.
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« Reply #170 on: December 24, 2003, 04:20:55 am »
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I agree with bullmoose's analysis of PA(one question: do you think that any House members might be threatend by the steel tariffs? And another: why is the strong GOP area in the centre of PA called the "T"? It looks more like a "Z")

Bush would struggle to keep WV anyway("No child behind" f***** up WV budget), but the Tariff's could be a killer for him there.

Ohio is a more conservative state than PA or WV, but it was close last time and a GOP congressman has said it's a tossup so I suppose it is.

Another state that the Tariffs issue could hurt Bush in is Arkansas(seriously!), but he's probably givin AR up already.
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« Reply #171 on: December 24, 2003, 10:51:33 am »
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Why would bush give up arkansas, he won it last time.  Plus it is socially conservative state like Bush, and Dean will definately not play well there.
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« Reply #172 on: December 24, 2003, 04:24:01 pm »
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If I were Dem strategists, I'd worry more about defending states such as Wisconsin, Oregon, Iowa, and New Mexico where Gore scraped by with 1/2 of one percent or less.  Might even worry about Minn where the margin was a slender 2%.  There's a much greater chance that these states switch sides than for Arkansas (won by Bush by 6%) changing hands.

Realpolitik is once again completely discounting the cultural conservatism of the red states.  Howard Dean won't come within 15 points of carryinjg Arkansas.  I suspect he's in for a disappointment when it comes to West Virginia as well.  People in these two states are no more going to turn national security over to Howard Dean than a man in the moon.

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« Reply #173 on: December 24, 2003, 08:03:17 pm »
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I wouldn't be so confident.

Granted, West Virginia is a very very very (you get the point) socially conservative state. Its also very evangelical. Democrats still vastly outnumber Republicans and lets face it, West Virginians vote for democrats even when they're socially moderate or even liberal (Dukakis, Clinton [Twice]). If Dean moves to the center come election season, as we know he has to (you can only try the Barry Goldwater strategy once or twice before people place electablilty ahead of principles)

Same thing goes for Arkansas, Tennessee, and Louisiana...granted they're far more Republican by nature...its not like a moderate or even Liberal democrat can't carry these states...I doubt conservatives thought Clinton a socially conservative candidate, but yet all 3 states went for Clinton in 92 and 96.

Now am I saying that Tennessee or Arkansas will land in Dean's column come November...its not likely, the GOP has a pretty good machine in those two states and with the exception of TN Gov (where the last R was pretty unpopular) the GOP has the momentum.  Louisiana (a catholic state) where the democrats have a pretty well oiled machine could go the way of Dean or Clark providing they present a reasonably mainstream image...but that remains to be seen.
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« Reply #174 on: December 24, 2003, 08:10:49 pm »
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I always thought it looked more like an "I" (with large top and a large bottom)[although the bottom runs into Pittsburgh and suburban Philly and some of those counties can go democratic so its more accurate to call it a T-the entire stateline with New York goes Republican, Erie county on occasion as well)

PA politics is confusing at times. In national elections for president, the SE has voted for the more liberal (socially) candidate as long as he doesn't talk about borrowing and spending (fiscally moderate or even conservative) the West is the opposite. So in congressional elections (especially now that the GOP has drawn the districts to favor them) the East votes for Moderate, fiscally conservative republicans [free traders] or similarly positioned democrats [you don't get a liberal democrat outside the city for congressional races] while out west the republicans and democrats tend to be protectionist, socially conservative candidates.

Thats why the SE where the counties around philly are very republican, yet vote for Clinton and Gore into the 60% range while the west is predominantly democratic around Pittsburgh and Erie yet has been voting Republican as of late. So I doubt congressional candidates will be hurt since they likely share the views of their consituents. Bush however, (who was supposed to be a free trade guy) might get hurt out west.


Just a hunch though...11 months is still pretty early to predict.
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