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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 361505 times)
classical liberal
RightWingNut
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« Reply #2175 on: May 31, 2004, 10:39:41 am »
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In VA, the House is Conservative GOP, but the Senate is N.E. liberals and Rockafeller Republicans.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #2176 on: May 31, 2004, 10:44:19 am »
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On the subject of State legislatures, has anyone else heard what the NC GOP has done to the Co-Speaker?
Ouch!
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2177 on: May 31, 2004, 12:08:09 pm »
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On the subject of State legislatures, has anyone else heard what the NC GOP has done to the Co-Speaker?
Ouch!


Did you hear the Governer of S.Carolina brought pigs into the state house. In honor of pork! lol
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #2178 on: May 31, 2004, 12:10:52 pm »
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On the subject of State legislatures, has anyone else heard what the NC GOP has done to the Co-Speaker?
Ouch!

Did you hear the Governer of S.Carolina brought pigs into the state house. In honor of pork! lol

Huh
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2179 on: May 31, 2004, 01:25:51 pm »
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What is this guy thinking?


Picks up the upeer south but loses the upper midwest?
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« Reply #2180 on: May 31, 2004, 01:51:47 pm »
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Kerry wins Virginia yet loses Wisconsin and New Mexico?

Odd.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2181 on: May 31, 2004, 01:56:16 pm »
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On the subject of State legislatures, has anyone else heard what the NC GOP has done to the Co-Speaker?
Ouch!

Did you hear the Governer of S.Carolina brought pigs into the state house. In honor of pork! lol

Huh

I believe they overrode the governers veto so he brought pigs into the state capital in honor of "pork" spending.
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« Reply #2182 on: May 31, 2004, 03:01:04 pm »
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The map I posted a while ago is Al Cephmiar's.  He is a bit delusional Smiley
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« Reply #2183 on: May 31, 2004, 03:18:53 pm »
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How many of you plan on considering a change to your predictions after Kerry's VP is announced?

Personally, I think a lot could hinge on it.  I'm not a believer of a landslide in 2004.  I think this will be won on the margin, where factors like a VP pick can make a big difference.  

So I'm not even going to predict state-by-state until I know who Kerry's running mate is.

I will, of course, still predict a Kerry victory, but a very, very close one.
I think its worth making a prediction to have something on the record. Saying that, I think the the VP choice is well worth a revisit to the prediction map. I don't think a lot will hinge on it, but one or two states may.

My current predictions dates immediately after Super Tuesday. I expect my next update will follow the Democrat VP selection.
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« Reply #2184 on: May 31, 2004, 03:20:08 pm »
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I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.
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« Reply #2185 on: May 31, 2004, 06:23:08 pm »
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I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.

I asked this before but never got a response. How will this effect the farther left Dems who would have thrown their votes to Kerry?
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« Reply #2186 on: May 31, 2004, 06:26:58 pm »
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I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.

I asked this before but never got a response. How will this effect the farther left Dems who would have thrown their votes to Kerry?
it won't.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2187 on: May 31, 2004, 06:57:37 pm »
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I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.

I asked this before but never got a response. How will this effect the farther left Dems who would have thrown their votes to Kerry?
it won't.

Kucinich is very popular among some Democrats. If they really don't care for either Bush or Kerry I can see many of them voting for Kucinich. Especially in Ohio.
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« Reply #2188 on: May 31, 2004, 07:02:48 pm »
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I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.

I asked this before but never got a response. How will this effect the farther left Dems who would have thrown their votes to Kerry?
it won't.

Kucinich is very popular among some Democrats. If they really don't care for either Bush or Kerry I can see many of them voting for Kucinich. Especially in Ohio.
hey may get a few green votes but most democrats don't want to lose again because of a "nader" factor.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2189 on: May 31, 2004, 07:04:55 pm »
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I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.

I asked this before but never got a response. How will this effect the farther left Dems who would have thrown their votes to Kerry?
it won't.

Kucinich is very popular among some Democrats. If they really don't care for either Bush or Kerry I can see many of them voting for Kucinich. Especially in Ohio.
hey may get a few green votes but most democrats don't want to lose again because of a "nader" factor.

Not everyone that votes are political junkies like us. If a Ohioan sees his hometown fellow on his ballot he would probably heavily weigh voting for him. Not everyone that votes thinks of factors and what third party candidates do. They vote for who they believe will do the best job.
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« Reply #2190 on: May 31, 2004, 07:49:55 pm »
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I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.
On March 23, 2003, John Hagelin wrote that the Natural Law Party was "supporting [Kucinich] in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination."  

This isn't quite the same as saying that Kucinich is going to get the 2004 NLP nomination (if there is one).
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« Reply #2191 on: June 01, 2004, 08:23:48 am »
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I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.
On March 23, 2003, John Hagelin wrote that the Natural Law Party was "supporting [Kucinich] in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination."  

This isn't quite the same as saying that Kucinich is going to get the 2004 NLP nomination (if there is one).
Right.
I don't Kurkick is running.
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« Reply #2192 on: June 01, 2004, 08:28:29 am »
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The map I posted a while ago is Al Cephmiar's.  He is a bit delusional Smiley

Hey!
I was assuming a Kerry-Edwards ticket... and that map isn't the importent one... the importent one is (IMO) the confidence map:

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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
classical liberal
RightWingNut
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« Reply #2193 on: June 01, 2004, 11:58:32 am »
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If SC is lean GOP, then so are KY and IN.
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
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« Reply #2194 on: June 01, 2004, 12:04:56 pm »
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If SC is lean GOP, then so are KY and IN.
All 3 are solid GOP, but I think SC will be the closest of the 3, with KY being most solid GOP.  Weird, I know, but it's what I think.
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« Reply #2195 on: June 01, 2004, 01:15:24 pm »
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If SC is lean GOP, then so are KY and IN.

Textiles... and the map assumes a Kerry-Edwards ticket...
The map *will* change... KY was almost a leaner.
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2196 on: June 01, 2004, 02:43:17 pm »
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I don't understand why you think Kerry will have more pull in the upper south than Gore did.
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classical liberal
RightWingNut
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« Reply #2197 on: June 01, 2004, 03:28:02 pm »
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Kerry won't, Edwards will.
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2198 on: June 01, 2004, 03:29:11 pm »
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John Engle has submitted 2 predictions in 24 hours.  Take a look, and decide which is the crazier:


And:


I say the first one.
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MAS117
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« Reply #2199 on: June 01, 2004, 11:16:55 pm »
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I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.
On March 23, 2003, John Hagelin wrote that the Natural Law Party was "supporting [Kucinich] in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination."  

This isn't quite the same as saying that Kucinich is going to get the 2004 NLP nomination (if there is one).

Thanks for clearing that up Andrew.
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