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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 345546 times)
Sibboleth
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« Reply #2175 on: May 31, 2004, 10:20:35 am »
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Re: VA becoming "more Republican".
Using State Legislative results in VA is deeply flawed... most districts in VA are uncontested, and a lot of the Democrats in VA used to be rather right wing (eg. Harry F Byrd... or Virgil Goode, before he ratted).
You ought to know that.
Secondly to describe *Warner* as a *Republican* is plain silly. Sure he's a moderate-to-populist-rural-orientated-Democrat, but *that does not make someone a Republican*.
Your other analysis is highly suspect as well.
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'Gentlemen, a desert. A place of savage reference for the good people of Ohio. A place to fear and love. A blasted region. Something to remind us what we hewed out of. A place without malls. An Other for Ohio's Self. Cacti and scorpions and the sun bearing down. Desolation. A place for people to wander alone. To reflect. Away from everything. Gentlemen, a desert.'
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« Reply #2176 on: May 31, 2004, 10:24:59 am »
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Quote from: VP Al on May 31, 2004, 10:20:35 am
Re: VA becoming "more Republican".
Using State Legislative results in VA is deeply flawed...
Or just about every other state...
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« Reply #2177 on: May 31, 2004, 10:26:58 am »
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Republicans have an 11 seat advantage is the NY senate.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #2178 on: May 31, 2004, 10:38:08 am »
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Quote from: Lewis Trondheim on May 31, 2004, 10:24:59 am
Quote from: VP Al on May 31, 2004, 10:20:35 am
Re: VA becoming "more Republican".
Using State Legislative results in VA is deeply flawed...
Or just about every other state...

True... but for some reason it's worse in VA... sod all candidates get opposed... meaning that a gain of 2 seats is thought of as huge...
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'Gentlemen, a desert. A place of savage reference for the good people of Ohio. A place to fear and love. A blasted region. Something to remind us what we hewed out of. A place without malls. An Other for Ohio's Self. Cacti and scorpions and the sun bearing down. Desolation. A place for people to wander alone. To reflect. Away from everything. Gentlemen, a desert.'
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« Reply #2179 on: May 31, 2004, 10:39:41 am »
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In VA, the House is Conservative GOP, but the Senate is N.E. liberals and Rockafeller Republicans.
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« Reply #2180 on: May 31, 2004, 10:44:19 am »
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On the subject of State legislatures, has anyone else heard what the NC GOP has done to the Co-Speaker?
Ouch!
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'Gentlemen, a desert. A place of savage reference for the good people of Ohio. A place to fear and love. A blasted region. Something to remind us what we hewed out of. A place without malls. An Other for Ohio's Self. Cacti and scorpions and the sun bearing down. Desolation. A place for people to wander alone. To reflect. Away from everything. Gentlemen, a desert.'
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« Reply #2181 on: May 31, 2004, 12:08:09 pm »
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Quote from: VP Al on May 31, 2004, 10:44:19 am
On the subject of State legislatures, has anyone else heard what the NC GOP has done to the Co-Speaker?
Ouch!


Did you hear the Governer of S.Carolina brought pigs into the state house. In honor of pork! lol
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #2182 on: May 31, 2004, 12:10:52 pm »
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Quote from: Senator-StatesRights on May 31, 2004, 12:08:09 pm
Quote from: VP Al on May 31, 2004, 10:44:19 am
On the subject of State legislatures, has anyone else heard what the NC GOP has done to the Co-Speaker?
Ouch!

Did you hear the Governer of S.Carolina brought pigs into the state house. In honor of pork! lol

Huh
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'Gentlemen, a desert. A place of savage reference for the good people of Ohio. A place to fear and love. A blasted region. Something to remind us what we hewed out of. A place without malls. An Other for Ohio's Self. Cacti and scorpions and the sun bearing down. Desolation. A place for people to wander alone. To reflect. Away from everything. Gentlemen, a desert.'
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2183 on: May 31, 2004, 01:25:51 pm »
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What is this guy thinking?


Picks up the upeer south but loses the upper midwest?
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« Reply #2184 on: May 31, 2004, 01:51:47 pm »
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Kerry wins Virginia yet loses Wisconsin and New Mexico?

Odd.
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« Reply #2185 on: May 31, 2004, 01:56:16 pm »
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Quote from: VP Al on May 31, 2004, 12:10:52 pm
Quote from: Senator-StatesRights on May 31, 2004, 12:08:09 pm
Quote from: VP Al on May 31, 2004, 10:44:19 am
On the subject of State legislatures, has anyone else heard what the NC GOP has done to the Co-Speaker?
Ouch!

Did you hear the Governer of S.Carolina brought pigs into the state house. In honor of pork! lol

Huh

I believe they overrode the governers veto so he brought pigs into the state capital in honor of "pork" spending.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2186 on: May 31, 2004, 03:01:04 pm »
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The map I posted a while ago is Al Cephmiar's.  He is a bit delusional Smiley
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"If the Constitution means anything, it surely means that the president does not have unreviewable authority to summarily execute any American whom he concludes is an enemy of the state"

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« Reply #2187 on: May 31, 2004, 03:18:53 pm »
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Quote from: kfseattle on May 31, 2004, 04:21:18 am
How many of you plan on considering a change to your predictions after Kerry's VP is announced?

Personally, I think a lot could hinge on it.  I'm not a believer of a landslide in 2004.  I think this will be won on the margin, where factors like a VP pick can make a big difference.  

So I'm not even going to predict state-by-state until I know who Kerry's running mate is.

I will, of course, still predict a Kerry victory, but a very, very close one.
I think its worth making a prediction to have something on the record. Saying that, I think the the VP choice is well worth a revisit to the prediction map. I don't think a lot will hinge on it, but one or two states may.

My current predictions dates immediately after Super Tuesday. I expect my next update will follow the Democrat VP selection.
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« Reply #2188 on: May 31, 2004, 03:20:08 pm »
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I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.
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« Reply #2189 on: May 31, 2004, 06:23:08 pm »
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Quote from: JUSTICE MAS117 of the AFSC on May 31, 2004, 03:20:08 pm
I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.

I asked this before but never got a response. How will this effect the farther left Dems who would have thrown their votes to Kerry?
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« Reply #2190 on: May 31, 2004, 06:26:58 pm »
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Quote from: Senator-StatesRights on May 31, 2004, 06:23:08 pm
Quote from: JUSTICE MAS117 of the AFSC on May 31, 2004, 03:20:08 pm
I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.

I asked this before but never got a response. How will this effect the farther left Dems who would have thrown their votes to Kerry?
it won't.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2191 on: May 31, 2004, 06:57:37 pm »
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Quote from: Senator texasgurl24 on May 31, 2004, 06:26:58 pm
Quote from: Senator-StatesRights on May 31, 2004, 06:23:08 pm
Quote from: JUSTICE MAS117 of the AFSC on May 31, 2004, 03:20:08 pm
I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.

I asked this before but never got a response. How will this effect the farther left Dems who would have thrown their votes to Kerry?
it won't.

Kucinich is very popular among some Democrats. If they really don't care for either Bush or Kerry I can see many of them voting for Kucinich. Especially in Ohio.
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« Reply #2192 on: May 31, 2004, 07:02:48 pm »
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Quote from: Senator-StatesRights on May 31, 2004, 06:57:37 pm
Quote from: Senator texasgurl24 on May 31, 2004, 06:26:58 pm
Quote from: Senator-StatesRights on May 31, 2004, 06:23:08 pm
Quote from: JUSTICE MAS117 of the AFSC on May 31, 2004, 03:20:08 pm
I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.

I asked this before but never got a response. How will this effect the farther left Dems who would have thrown their votes to Kerry?
it won't.

Kucinich is very popular among some Democrats. If they really don't care for either Bush or Kerry I can see many of them voting for Kucinich. Especially in Ohio.
hey may get a few green votes but most democrats don't want to lose again because of a "nader" factor.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2193 on: May 31, 2004, 07:04:55 pm »
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Quote from: Senator texasgurl24 on May 31, 2004, 07:02:48 pm
Quote from: Senator-StatesRights on May 31, 2004, 06:57:37 pm
Quote from: Senator texasgurl24 on May 31, 2004, 06:26:58 pm
Quote from: Senator-StatesRights on May 31, 2004, 06:23:08 pm
Quote from: JUSTICE MAS117 of the AFSC on May 31, 2004, 03:20:08 pm
I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.

I asked this before but never got a response. How will this effect the farther left Dems who would have thrown their votes to Kerry?
it won't.

Kucinich is very popular among some Democrats. If they really don't care for either Bush or Kerry I can see many of them voting for Kucinich. Especially in Ohio.
hey may get a few green votes but most democrats don't want to lose again because of a "nader" factor.

Not everyone that votes are political junkies like us. If a Ohioan sees his hometown fellow on his ballot he would probably heavily weigh voting for him. Not everyone that votes thinks of factors and what third party candidates do. They vote for who they believe will do the best job.
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« Reply #2194 on: May 31, 2004, 07:49:55 pm »
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Quote from: JUSTICE MAS117 of the AFSC on May 31, 2004, 03:20:08 pm
I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.
On March 23, 2003, John Hagelin wrote that the Natural Law Party was "supporting [Kucinich] in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination."  

This isn't quite the same as saying that Kucinich is going to get the 2004 NLP nomination (if there is one).
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Vasall des Midas
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« Reply #2195 on: June 01, 2004, 08:23:48 am »
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Quote from: Andrew on May 31, 2004, 07:49:55 pm
Quote from: JUSTICE MAS117 of the AFSC on May 31, 2004, 03:20:08 pm
I havent posted in the 146 other threads in this board, but for the mock election, I would just like to point out that the Natural Law Party endorsed Rep. Dennis Kuchinich for President.
On March 23, 2003, John Hagelin wrote that the Natural Law Party was "supporting [Kucinich] in his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination."  

This isn't quite the same as saying that Kucinich is going to get the 2004 NLP nomination (if there is one).
Right.
I don't Kurkick is running.
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Quote from: True Federalist on April 28, 2013, 01:25:07 am
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #2196 on: June 01, 2004, 08:28:29 am »
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Quote from: Boss Tweed on May 31, 2004, 03:01:04 pm
The map I posted a while ago is Al Cephmiar's.  He is a bit delusional Smiley

Hey!
I was assuming a Kerry-Edwards ticket... and that map isn't the importent one... the importent one is (IMO) the confidence map:
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'Gentlemen, a desert. A place of savage reference for the good people of Ohio. A place to fear and love. A blasted region. Something to remind us what we hewed out of. A place without malls. An Other for Ohio's Self. Cacti and scorpions and the sun bearing down. Desolation. A place for people to wander alone. To reflect. Away from everything. Gentlemen, a desert.'
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« Reply #2197 on: June 01, 2004, 11:58:32 am »
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If SC is lean GOP, then so are KY and IN.
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« Reply #2198 on: June 01, 2004, 12:04:56 pm »
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Quote from: RightWingNut on June 01, 2004, 11:58:32 am
If SC is lean GOP, then so are KY and IN.
All 3 are solid GOP, but I think SC will be the closest of the 3, with KY being most solid GOP.  Weird, I know, but it's what I think.
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« Reply #2199 on: June 01, 2004, 01:15:24 pm »
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Quote from: RightWingNut on June 01, 2004, 11:58:32 am
If SC is lean GOP, then so are KY and IN.

Textiles... and the map assumes a Kerry-Edwards ticket...
The map *will* change... KY was almost a leaner.
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'Gentlemen, a desert. A place of savage reference for the good people of Ohio. A place to fear and love. A blasted region. Something to remind us what we hewed out of. A place without malls. An Other for Ohio's Self. Cacti and scorpions and the sun bearing down. Desolation. A place for people to wander alone. To reflect. Away from everything. Gentlemen, a desert.'
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