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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 354658 times)
Mort from NewYawk
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« Reply #525 on: January 09, 2004, 02:03:25 pm »
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I believe that the long term demographic in NM and NV favors the Democrats. Beyond Hispanics, there is a significant movement of young people and retirees, not only from CA, but from urban areas in the East, to fast growing towns like Las Vegas, Henderson, and Santa Fe. AZ and CO are not the same - their population centers have been established for a longer time and are more conservative - I wouldn't put them in the Democratic column unless the Democrats had a real edge nationally.
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« Reply #526 on: January 09, 2004, 03:16:17 pm »
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Bush leads Dean and Clark by 9 in IL poll

January 9, 2004
By SARAH ANTONACCI of Copley News Service


SPRINGFIELD - With 10 months left before the presidential election, a Copley News Service poll finds that fewer than half of the respondents would vote to re-elect President George W. Bush, and his Democratic challengers have some work to do to get their names out to the voters.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., conducted the poll Monday through Wednesday, asking 625 registered Illinois voters across the state a variety of questions about the presidential election. Those questions involved candidate name recognition, favorable ratings and who voters would select if the election were held today.

The sample has a margin of error of 4 percent.

"There's no election right on top of this, so I wasn't terribly surprised by the results," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research. "These numbers more than likely will change over time. It's changing on a daily basis.

"Bush is well known to all the voters in the state, and some of the Democratic candidates are not as well known. At least three of them are recognized by 90 percent of the voters. (John) Kerry and (Wesley) Clark are still blank slates to sizeable portions of the electorate."

The poll asked voters whether they recognized the names of Bush and of the five Democratic challengers generally considered the front-runners. The three Democrats voters generally recognized were U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (the 2000 vice presidential candidate) and Vermont Gov. Howard Dean.

Jason Gerwig, a spokesman for Bush, said Thursday he considers the numbers promising for the president. The poll found that 42 percent of those surveyed view Bush favorably, 37 percent unfavorably and 21 percent were neutral.

"Looking at these numbers - and ones especially for the Democrats - for a state that people have written off as Democratic, these numbers show anything but," Gerwig said.

Dean spokesman Kevin Conlon said he looks at the name-recognition poll a little differently. Dean had a 20 percent favorable rating, 31 percent unfavorable and 40 percent neutral; 9 percent of respondents didn't recognize Dean's name.

"His unfavorables are less than Bush. That's comparable to other recent polls," Conlon said.

Illinois' primary isn't until March 16. As a result, many of the candidates haven't begun campaigning here. Instead, they are concentrating on states with earlier primaries.

That's why Conlon thinks the poll results are good for Dean.

"It's not the same as in Iowa, where he's been 100 times. We're very confident that when the voters of Illinois get to know him more and more, he will do even better," Conlon said. "We feel good about those results, and we feel confident that we put together a wonderful slate of candidates and we have every reason to think we can prevail."

Dean is generally considered the Democrat to beat in the early primaries.

Coker said Illinois has a history of leaning toward Democratic candidates, but it will be interesting to watch Dean when he begins to campaign here. Dean has been targeting Democratic activists in primary states, Coker said.

"He's taken a calculated gamble to go left to win the nomination and then work his way toward the middle by fall," Coker said. "Dean's unfavorable rating (in the Copley poll) is almost as high as Bush's. That's something to ponder should he become a nominee."

The poll also asked voters who they would vote for when each of the five leading Democrats were matched head-to-head with Bush.

Bush beat them all, but never with a majority of the entire survey. His margins ranged from 9 percent (over Dean and Clark) to as low as 4 percent (over Lieberman and Gephardt).

"I'm not surprised, with the state's political leanings, that his leads are only small," Coker said.

Adam Kovacevich, a spokesman for Lieberman, said the poll numbers show Democrats, especially his candidate, are running strong in Illinois.

"These results show that Joe Lieberman is in the best position possible to beat Bush in the general election," he said.

The poll did not consider four other Democratic candidates who are running behind in polls: U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, Al Sharpton, former U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois and U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio.

Bill Buck, a spokesman for Clark, said he views the head-to-head numbers as strong for his candidate because he's someone "whose only been running for president since September against a sitting president in a state he's never campaigned in."

Poll respondents also were asked if they thought Bush is doing a good job as president. On that question, 49 percent ranked his performance "good" or "excellent," 27 percent said "fair," 23 percent said "poor" and 1 percent were undecided.

Gerwig said those numbers are encouraging for the president.

"If you take the people who thought he was doing a fair job, that adds up to 76 percent," he said. "These are great numbers."

Pollsters also asked voters if they approve of Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq. Fifty percent said they do, 41 percent do not and 9 percent were undecided. In a similar question on the economy, 44 percent expressed approval, 46 percent disapproval and 10 percent were undecided.

"It is early, and this is by no means a snapshot of what we'll see in November," Gerwig said. "The fact that the numbers are so good for the president so early on, when no one is really thinking about the race, is encouraging."

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« Reply #527 on: January 09, 2004, 03:21:42 pm »
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Dean would still win Illinois easily.  In April Polling here in NY, Gephardt trailed Bush by 16%.  Now, Dean has a 5% lead here.

At this time 24 years ago: Carter-62% Reagan 33%.
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« Reply #528 on: January 09, 2004, 03:31:19 pm »
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only 300 votes different in 2000, plus GOP picked upa  house seat there i believe.

Still think it would have went GOP if FL wasn't called early, as many have specualted nationally.

Arizona-Went for Bush 51-45% despite Gore not campaigning there.  Likely Republican 2004 but not out of reach.

Colorado-Denver is liberal as hell, but the rest of the state is very conservative, so Republican for the near future.

New Mexico-Has gone Dem in recent Presidential Elections but drifting republican.  Will only go dem is Richardson is VP.
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« Reply #529 on: January 09, 2004, 03:33:24 pm »
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Are you talking about Illinois in the 200 presidential race?  Because that is what I'm talking about and I'm not sure you are. Smiley
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« Reply #530 on: January 09, 2004, 03:34:54 pm »
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i was talking NM, in response to the post about it.  See I quoted it.
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« Reply #531 on: January 09, 2004, 03:35:38 pm »
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Illinois- just wait until they get to know Dean! Smiley  and his unfavorables are already aheado f his favorable, not a good sign for him.
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« Reply #532 on: January 09, 2004, 03:36:17 pm »
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Ahh, okay.

With your strange quoting policy I get confused.
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« Reply #533 on: January 10, 2004, 08:11:13 pm »
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I don't believe Edwards could carry NC, let alone any of the rest of the South.


Research 2000 poll of North Carolinians, 1/04:

Approve of presidential bid by Edwards: 55 % (vs. 39% last year)-- due to increase in number of Democrats in NC who support his bid.

Bush vs. Edwards: 53-40
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« Reply #534 on: January 10, 2004, 08:12:48 pm »
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I don't believe Edwards could carry NC, let alone any of the rest of the South.


Research 2000 poll of North Carolinians, 1/04:

Approve of presidential bid by Edwards: 55 % (vs. 39% last year)-- due to increase in number of Democrats in NC who support his bid.

Bush vs. Edwards: 53-40


Edwards still gets beat into the ground.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #535 on: January 10, 2004, 08:17:19 pm »
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agcat,

agcat, read Al Franken's book. That's an eye-popper.

This is kind of like 1972. No liberals knew of anyone who was supporting Nixon and were shocked election night.

I support Franken. The more books he sells, the further isolated Dems become from the mainstream voter.  It happened to conservatives in 1996.
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« Reply #536 on: January 10, 2004, 08:28:59 pm »
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agcat,

agcat, read Al Franken's book. That's an eye-popper.

This is kind of like 1972. No liberals knew of anyone who was supporting Nixon and were shocked election night.

I support Franken. The more books he sells, the further isolated Dems become from the mainstream voter.  It happened to conservatives in 1996.

That is called an echo chamber.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #537 on: January 10, 2004, 10:46:25 pm »
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I'll graph my predictions when I get a chance, but here are my detailed predictions. This assumes no earth-shattering events between now and Nov. '04 and the Dems nominating either Dean or Gephardt and a competitive race.

Solid Dem: VT, NY, CT, RI, MA, MD, DC, DE, NJ, CA, WA, HI, IL

Solid GOP: ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, ID, MT, WY, UT, AK, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, KY, LA, IN

Lean Dem:

Maine
New Mexico (Gore won barely in '00 and a Hispanic Dem was solidly elected Governor--should be able to turn out Hispanics on election day)
Pennsylvania (more competitive if Dean is the nominee)
Michigan (ditto for MI)

Lean GOP:

Colorado
Tennessee
Florida (it'll be very close, but I must sadly say it leans GOP due to increased GOP registration and a solid win for Jeb Bush in 2002)
Nevada (a bit more competitive due to Yucca Mountain and an increasing Hispanic population)
Arizona (though more Democratic than in '00)

Tossup:

NH: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
MO: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
IA: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
WV: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
AR: Lean GOP, though highly competitive if Clark gets VP
OH: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
MN: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
WI: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
OR: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep

I figured Dean would overperform in states Nader did well in in 2000 (MN, WI, OR) and Gephardt would do well in his home state and in states with a high union population (MI, OH, PA, WV).

Dean isn't even all that popular among Dems in NH.  He's not running away with the primary and the state has shown no support for candidates that want to raise taxes as Dean has vowed to do by repealing Bush's tax cuts to pay for new social spending.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #538 on: January 10, 2004, 10:49:11 pm »
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Tennessee is going to be close(again) and is certainly going to be worth a watch.
I'm curious as wether or the interesting voting patterns displayed in the state in the 2002 gubernatorial election will be repeated.

That a conservative Democrat can win statewide in TN? Sure. Too bad there aren't any on the presidential ballot this November.
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« Reply #539 on: January 10, 2004, 11:29:36 pm »
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I don't believe Edwards could carry NC, let alone any of the rest of the South.


Research 2000 poll of North Carolinians, 1/04:

Approve of presidential bid by Edwards: 55 % (vs. 39% last year)-- due to increase in number of Democrats in NC who support his bid.

Bush vs. Edwards: 53-40


Do you have a source/link for the NC info?
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« Reply #540 on: January 11, 2004, 01:47:28 pm »
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I don't believe Edwards could carry NC, let alone any of the rest of the South.


Research 2000 poll of North Carolinians, 1/04:

Approve of presidential bid by Edwards: 55 % (vs. 39% last year)-- due to increase in number of Democrats in NC who support his bid.

Bush vs. Edwards: 53-40


Do you have a source/link for the NC info?
Yeah, you got a link?
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« Reply #541 on: January 11, 2004, 04:39:39 pm »
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Actually Goldwater won Louisiana in 1964.
Also, I don't think that Clark would lose Arkansas if he were nominated.

Pryor ran almost as an ideological soulmate of Bush-- like Landrieu did.  Reps. Berry and Ross and Sen. Lincoln supported the war resolution. My guess is that Pryor would have voted in favor.   Clark can be painted as a liberal and that's bad news in any state in the South.
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« Reply #542 on: January 11, 2004, 04:43:02 pm »
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I just added my map today.  It's nothing special, just the 2000 results with NH, WV, and NV switiching to the Ds.  I assumed Dean would be the nominee, but I'm personally pulling for Gephardt.

What is it with people thinking New Hampshire loves Howard Dean? Most voters here had no idea who he was.  If we follow the political goings-on of another state, it's Massachusetts.  Dean barely won re-election in 2000 in Vermont.  He couldn't be elected governor of New Hampshire, and yet, somehow he can win the state's electoral votes?
« Last Edit: January 11, 2004, 04:45:08 pm by NHPolitico »Logged

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« Reply #543 on: January 11, 2004, 04:44:32 pm »
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Kerry will Lose in NH & Gepthart will lose in Iowa
Dean will win & Be the Nommie & Lose to Bush
49 to 41

Right except 56-41 for Bush.
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« Reply #544 on: January 11, 2004, 04:47:23 pm »
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I've heard the poll in SC that had Sharpton in 2nd place, though, had a very high percentage of blacks polled. I didn't hear how high but I know I've heard experts say that they feel that black turnout was overestimated in that poll, and that others had Sharpton significantly lower.

Blacks make up half of the Democrat primary voting population in SC.   This poll would have to have a ridiculous number of black voters in the sample for the results to overrepresent the black vote.
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« Reply #545 on: January 11, 2004, 04:49:03 pm »
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Kerry will Lose in NH & Gepthart will lose in Iowa
Dean will win & Be the Nommie & Lose to Bush
49 to 41

Right except 56-41 for Bush.
Bush 51% Dean 47%
Bush 334 Dean 204
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« Reply #546 on: January 11, 2004, 04:49:34 pm »
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Kerry will Lose in NH & Gepthart will lose in Iowa
Dean will win & Be the Nommie & Lose to Bush
49 to 41
Shut up! You always say Dean will win. And you give nothing to back it up. If you're going to say Dean will win, thats fine. But I notice you spread this in all the threads, as if Dean is already nominated. Explain yourself, and I won't be so mean.

Dean has the support of major unions and the ultra left.  The will help him win the nom.

The story of Dean's union support has been the most underreported story of this whole Democrat campaign season.  He's done incredibly well stealing union support from Gephardt.  Everyone talks about the beer drinkers versus the wine drinkers (Gephardt's supporters versus Dean's), but Dean has plenty of Gephardt's beer drinkers in his fold, too.
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« Reply #547 on: January 11, 2004, 04:50:49 pm »
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Dean will win the nomination and go down in November something like 54 - 46.  Pretty substantial win considering we are a 50 - 50 nation.


I think the GOP won 53% of all votes cast in the 2002 midterms.  That's pretty close to 54% and not at all shocking or unexpected.
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« Reply #548 on: January 11, 2004, 04:52:28 pm »
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I'd say I've seen analysists predict the black turnout in SC could be as high as 49%


I've heard the poll in SC that had Sharpton in 2nd place, though, had a very high percentage of blacks polled. I didn't hear how high but I know I've heard experts say that they feel that black turnout was overestimated in that poll, and that others had Sharpton significantly lower.

Yep, that's a very good approximation.  It could even be higher if Bush is as strong among white male voters as it has been thought. They won't show up to participate and the raw number of blacks voting won't change, but their power goes up.
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« Reply #549 on: January 11, 2004, 04:55:01 pm »
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Greetings from the Empire State:

Well, things are heating up in this presidential campaign, and Gore endorsing Dean puts him in a very good position.  But its still early and anything could happen.   Some of my political friends think that with this endorsement, Dean may clinch the nomination, however I think they maybe jumping the gun a little.  

Personally, I am excited about the possibility of a Dean - Clark ticket, or vice versa.  If these two are on the same ticket then the Dems have the best shot at winning the White House.  The Dems still need to realize that they need Southern Electoral Votes in order to win the election.    

See you all later.

Dean-Clark would be odder than an Oscar Madison-Felix Unger ticket.  
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"I like to help old ladies across the street. Sometimes they don't want to be helped. It's terrible." -- Barry Seinfeld
Don't tell me we can't change.
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