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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 354618 times)
Saratoga2DM
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« Reply #25 on: November 23, 2003, 06:19:26 pm »
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thanks a lot Zork, I could not have said it better myself.
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Ryan
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« Reply #26 on: November 24, 2003, 02:55:25 am »
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I submitted my predictions today for the 2004 presidential election.  I am looking forward to electing a Democratic candidate into office.  It is my prediction that whomever is nominated will be the next President.

LOL I gotta say that I'm impressed that you submitted a reasonably non-partisan and neutral analysis inspite of your obviously strong views.
I had expected a copy of the 1964 map or something Tongue Grin
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Sibboleth Bist
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« Reply #27 on: November 24, 2003, 01:05:56 pm »
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2000 was a fluke. The Dems did very badly in Appalachia in 2000 due to:
a) Kyoto
b) "Modernisation"(which has got worse recently).
c) Guns

Look at recent results in Appalachia.
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timroman
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« Reply #28 on: November 24, 2003, 03:39:53 pm »
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I have to say, Dave's electoral college calculator is quite nice.  The only way to make it better would be to add a map that would show the results you choose...

The old one that I used (http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/calculator.html) didn't have a map either.

TR
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afleitch
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« Reply #29 on: November 25, 2003, 03:28:29 pm »
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Although I am not a fan of Howard Dean, and i'm Britsih to boot, writing off his chances in the south is a dangerous trap. Disregarding his Condederate flag statement, he may tap into disgruntled southern voters both black and white if he plays his cards right. He is a supporter of gun ownership, which could appeal to many (Not that I am trying to make any assumptions of gun ownership based on state) A southern running mate would also help Dean. If he ran with Clarke, Arkansas would fall to the Democrats, not only because of Clarke, but because of an inbuilt Clinton-era political mechanism which could be put into effect. Louisiana is also a likely target state especially when looking at the recent gubernatorial race. I feel Florida, despite the closeness of 2000, is out of the Dems reach in 2004, as are Georgia and Tennessee. Kentucky could be persuaded and i wouldn't rule out North and South Carolina. North Carolina would be a target if John Edwards can make a good shot at the nomination or if he is selected as Dean's or any other candidates running mate. The 'high' war veteran concentration in South Carolina could also see this state as a close call if Wesley Clarke is involved, but it is likely to remain Republican. Gains in the south are needed by the Dems if they are in danger of loosing ground in northern states such as Oregon, Maine and Minnesota.
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Sibboleth Bist
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« Reply #30 on: November 25, 2003, 03:43:15 pm »
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NC's economic situation is looking bleak at present, and it'll get worse if the E.U imposes tariffs on textiles as revenge for the tariffs on steel.

SC is a Dem no no. SC gave Clinton under 40% in 1992(but, I hear you cry, so did FL. True but Perot ran well in FL) and is not going to go Dem until they rebuild in SC's northern counties.

Don't rule out GA, it's prone to sudden and unpredictible swings in opinion.
But because of the above don't predict a pick-up either.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #31 on: November 25, 2003, 09:24:01 pm »
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Illegal Aliens could decide 2004 Winner?
Interesting article  in National Review:
http://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/latest.asp#019982
Since Congressional seats are apportioned based on populaiton in a state, not citizens, CA illegal immigrants and non-rsident aliens result in about 6 addional EV for CA.  Should the Democrat win by a few EV, one could make the argument that those EV were due to the non-resident and illegal aliens in CA.
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"Scientists are treacherous allies on committees, for they are apt to change their minds in response to arguments" C.M. Bowra

The only way to reverse the failed polices of the past is OMG: Obama Must Go!
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« Reply #32 on: November 26, 2003, 09:16:51 am »
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Realpolitik,
You and I have had this discussion before.  Forget the South.  The cultural divide between the national Democrats and southern whites is waaaay too huge.  You keep implying the possibility that somehow economic issues might trump cultural and social issues in the minds of Southern voters.  It has never happened before and is even less likely today when that cultural gap is larger than it has ever been.  I know you are not predicting a GOP loss in Virginia, Georgia, and NC, but the fact that you even mention it as a possibility tells me you severely underestimate the very conservative nature of the southern region of the country.  Believe me, nothing would delight me more than to have a Howard Dean take his core message to the South. in a general election.

I firmly believe there is a Liberal Democratic cacoon on both coasts whereby Democrats are so isolated from the rest of the country that they actually believe what plays in New York, Los Angelos, and Boston is not going  to bother the "folks" in Raleigh, NC.  They get this by constantly talking amongst themselves and having no exposure whatsoever to people in "flyover country".  They literally live in a cacoon.  It doesn't help their situation at all that the Democratic candidates are madly dashing even further to the left to capture the lefty activists that form the majority of Democratic primary voters.  That will get the nomination, but what good is the nomination if the nominee gets buried in the general election?

Read Zell Miller's book.  It will be an eye opener.
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CHRISTOPHER MICHAE
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« Reply #33 on: November 26, 2003, 10:05:59 am »

agcat,

agcat, read Al Franken's book. That's an eye-popper.
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agcatter
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« Reply #34 on: November 26, 2003, 11:25:27 am »
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I'm afraid that's the kind of stuff Democrats are reading and buying into these days and there lies the Dems problem in a nutshell.   It may make them feel good and all of that, but it's no recipe for winning a general election.

Don't get me wrong.  I'm a partisan and I admit it.  That's why I have no problem with liberals ceding the middle to the Republican Party.  Nominate Howard Dean.  Buy into Franken, Michael Moore. the hollywood left, the whole thing.  I'm just saying that you can't afford to run too far left or right if you want to win.

How far left has the Dem Party veered?  Well, case in point is Florida which was 50-50 in the last election.  Mason-Dixon released a poll yesterday showing none of the current Dem candidates within 20 points of Bush in Florida.  BTW, Mason-Dixon hit Florida right on in 2000 and was right on the button in the 2002 governor's race.  You are alienating a hell of a lot of swing voters when you go from 50-50 to 20 down.
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CHRISTOPHER MICHAE
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« Reply #35 on: November 26, 2003, 12:27:42 pm »

There's a better EV calculator on John Edward's website(!)
What is the web-address for Jonathan Edwards?
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #36 on: November 26, 2003, 02:52:49 pm »
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There's a better EV calculator on John Edward's website(!)
What is the web-address for Jonathan Edwards?

www.edwards2004.org
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afleitch
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« Reply #37 on: November 26, 2003, 04:34:24 pm »
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Here's something to play with. Say that history was different. Say that for some unknown reason (however farfetched!) Carter defeats Reagan in 1980. Who would be up for election in 1984 and how would history have progessed presidentially since then? I have a feeling Mondale would have been up for election in 1984, after being veep for 8 years, what about the Republicans? What about 88? Let the imagination run riot!
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Demrepdan
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« Reply #38 on: November 26, 2003, 04:53:34 pm »
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What is the web-address for Jonathan Edwards?
It's just John Edwards...just to let you know. Not Jonathan. The nickname for Jonathan is JON. John, per se, is a name. Nicknames for JOHN include, Johnny and Jack.
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Moderately-Liberal Progressive Populist Libertarian Democrat.
Sibboleth Bist
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« Reply #39 on: November 27, 2003, 12:42:42 pm »
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Actually "John" is a shortend name. He was baptised as "Johnny".
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Ryan
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« Reply #40 on: November 27, 2003, 03:05:11 pm »
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There's a better EV calculator on John Edward's website(!)
What is the web-address for Jonathan Edwards?

U can get the EV calculator itself on

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

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« Reply #41 on: November 27, 2003, 05:07:30 pm »
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Actually "John" is a shortend name. He was baptised as "Johnny".
Thanks for bringing that to my attention, I looked it up and you're right. Smiley However, I knew his full name wasn't Jonathan.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2003, 05:08:19 pm by Demrepdan »Logged

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« Reply #42 on: November 27, 2003, 07:49:40 pm »
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Okay, I'm having a heapload of problems in uploading the gif files and I've spent enough time on it and in addition, how do you change colors, etc.?  Paint?  If so, just a TAD bit too much time.  So I'm just gonna say my predictions here:

Now, this is only assuming it'll be Bush vs. Dean.  If Clark gets it, Arkansas goes to lean Democrat.  To me, there's very little change from 2000.  Due to the fact I believe Democrats still don't hold a clear message, Bush looks like he'll recapture the election.  Even if Dean wins the Democratic nominee, we're literally seeing McGovern/Dukakis II.  America really don't want an extreme President, you gotta be near the middle.  With that being said.........

you can bet your bottom dollar these 8 states will be STRONG Democrat (come election day 2004, the Democrat contender will capture these states/district):  Vermont (even if Dean doesn't get it), Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York (even if the RNC is held in NYC and Bush gives the 9/11 "feel," I still think NY is gonna be strongly Democrat), New Jersey, Maryland, Washington DC (DUH?), Illinois, and California (even with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger at the helm, I still think California will be strongly Democrat).

likewise these are 21 STRONG Republican:  Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Indiana (this one was kinda tough, almost lean Republican, but I'll go with strong), Ohio (I want to say tossup, but I'm actually gonna gonna go on a limb and say strong), Tennessee (likewise with Indiana), Alabama, Mississippi, the whole tornado alley really (North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and duh Texas), Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado (same boat as Indiana but not only I think lean probably, but almost a tossup, but I'm gonna go with the gut feeling of strong), Utah, and Alaska.

true tossups in my eyes will be these 11 states:  Maine (and if I had to choose, I'd say lean Democrat), New Hampshire (I'm gonna go with gut and say lean Democrat), Pennsylvania (I'd say lean Republican if I had to choose), West Virginia (lean Democrat), Florida (I'm gonna go with slight Republican here, but it's still a tossup), Wisconsin (I'd lean slightly to the Republican side), Minnesota (this one can really go anywhere, hence a tossup, but I will play safe and say lean Republican), Iowa (lean Democrat), Nevada (this one is really tough....but I will go with gut and say lean Democrat), New Mexico (I'm gonna go for lean Republican here, this is my home state and I know we have a Democrat Governor, but I have this sense we're gonna vote Republican because we don't know Dean or Clark all too well), Oregon (this is a tough one, I WANT to say strong Democrat, but this one is a tossup)

the 3 lean Republican states are:  Missouri (although it's almost a tossup for me to be honest), Louisiana (same case for Missouri), Arizona (same case for Missouri),

I don't know lean or strong, but these will be Democrat states:  Connecticut, Delaware, Michigan, Washington, Hawai'i

I don't know lean or strong, but these will be Republican states:  Kentucky, Arkansas (again, this is if Dean captures it, Clark is a whole nother story)

I know my issues and reasonings for the way I chose each state by the way :-)

With that, I say Bush will win 307-231 (EV)

Breakdown percentages I see it like this (not including tossups, as these are just brute predictions):
Maine - >40% Democrat
New Hampshire - >40% Democrat
Vermont - >80% Democrat
Rhode Island - >80% Democrat
Connecticut - >50% Democrat
New York - >80% Democrat
New Jersey - >80% Democrat
Pennsylvania - >40% Republican
Delaware - >50% Democrat
Maryland - >70% Democrat
Washington DC - >80% Democrat
West Virginia - >40% Democrat
Virginia - >70% Republican
North Carolina - >80% Republican
South Carolina - >80% Republican
Georgia - >80% Republican
Florida - >40% Republican
Michigan - >40% Democrat
Ohio - >50% Republican
Indiana - >60% Republican
Kentucky - >40% Republican
Tennessee - >60% Republican
Alabama - >80% Republican
Mississippi - >80% Republican
Wisconsin - >40% Republican
Illinois - >80% Democrat
Minnesota - >40% Republican
Iowa - >40% Democrat
Missouri - >40% Republican
Arkansas - >40% Republican
Louisiana - >40% Republican
North Dakota - >80% Republican
South Dakota - >80% Republican
Nebraska - >80% Republican
Kansas - >80% Republican
Oklahoma - >80% Republican
Texas - >80% Republican
Montana - >80% Republican
Idaho - >80% Republican
Wyoming - >80% Republican
Colorado - >60% Republican
Utah - >80% Republican
Nevada - >40% Democrat
New Mexico - >40% Republican
Arizona - >40% Republican
Washington - >50% Democrat
Oregon - >40% Democrat
California - >60% Democrat
Alaska - >80% Republican
Hawai'i - >50% Democrat

I welcome any response(s) - I'll try my best and check this site every now and then.  

my 2008 predictions are in the appropriate forum.  Check it out *soon*
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agcatter
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« Reply #43 on: November 27, 2003, 09:58:04 pm »
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I think you just about nailed it state by state.  I can't really can't see a state that I'd argue much with - percentages are about right I'd say.
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Beet
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« Reply #44 on: November 28, 2003, 12:13:14 am »
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How far left has the Dem Party veered?  Well, case in point is Florida which was 50-50 in the last election.  Mason-Dixon released a poll yesterday showing none of the current Dem candidates within 20 points of Bush in Florida.  BTW, Mason-Dixon hit Florida right on in 2000 and was right on the button in the 2002 governor's race.  You are alienating a hell of a lot of swing voters when you go from 50-50 to 20 down.

If what you say is true, Lieberman is not within 20 points of Bush in Florida either, so how can the problem be that Democrats are too far left as you say?

Also I wouldn't categorize the entire West and Northeast as a "cocoon", they are the most populated regions in the country, and together are more populated than the South and Plains states. If Republicans can win elections, It's because the Northeast elects a lot of moderate Republicans (like Olympia Snowe) and because they have an advantage in the swing region, the Midwest right now, probably due to Bush's personal windfall from 9/11 and the feel-good (but troubled) war.
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Ryan
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« Reply #45 on: November 28, 2003, 03:54:27 am »
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Mikey welcome aboard, I too am much impressed with your analysis. Smiley
Got kinda Deja Vu feeling when I read ur state by state analysis Cheesy

A couple of questions:

- Why is Hawaii not in the definite Strong Dem column??

- For that matter how about Connecticut, Delaware?? I realise they COULD go GOP but only in a landslide and in that case, a couple more from the Strong Dem column would join them.

- In my opinion Kentucky works the other way around for the GOP. Its safe except for a landslide.

- Why is La. and not Tenn. a GOP lean??

that's enough for starters Smiley
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Ryan
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« Reply #46 on: November 28, 2003, 04:00:46 am »
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Okay, I'm having a heapload of problems in uploading the gif files and I've spent enough time on it and in addition, how do you change colors, etc.?  Paint?  If so, just a TAD bit too much time.

Lol we've all had our share. There is another forum thread for technical issues with predictions. Post a run-down of ur probs there and the big guy (Dave) will help ya out.
As for the coloring in paint taking time; what feature are you using? Mine took five minutes using the "fill with color" feature. I'd recommend that. Smiley
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Nym90
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« Reply #47 on: November 28, 2003, 03:26:35 pm »
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Actually, I think a lot of your percentages are way off Mikey. You have a lot of states going more than 80% for one candidate or the other, and almost certainly neither candidate will get over 80% of the vote in any state except for the Democrats in the District of Columbia. The last time any candidate topped 80% of the vote in any of the 50 states was Johnson in Rhode Island and Goldwater in Mississippi in 1964, and likewise Bush would have to win a landslide of equal proportions to Johnson's to even have a chance at 80% of the vote anywhere (Utah or Wyoming the most likely possibilities).
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Sibboleth Bist
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« Reply #48 on: November 29, 2003, 09:04:07 am »
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Yes... I was wondering about that...
I just can't see the GOP winning 80% in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia etc...

Or the Dems winning 80% in Illinois, New York, New Jersey etc...
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John
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« Reply #49 on: November 29, 2003, 02:26:07 pm »
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Bush will Carry the Same States as he did in 2000 but Pick Up Iowa & Minn
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John
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