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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 357920 times)
Reignman
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« Reply #2375 on: July 30, 2004, 12:02:02 am »
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This is an outstanding and unbiased site:

http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/
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Senate Prediction:
Score - 60
State Wins - 33/33
State Precentages - 27/33

khirkhib
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« Reply #2376 on: July 30, 2004, 03:56:21 am »
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Shouldn't Clinton, if he campaigns a lot, be able to win Arkansas for Kerry?

Now, I know it isn't the same when he runs as compared to when he endorses, etc. But still, he's a fairly recent ex-president and favourite son. If he could knock up Arkansas by a few % that could well be enough.

Well, what I have heard recently is that that has become exactly the plan.  Kerry has embraced Clinton and asked him to spend the next three months campaigning around the southern swing states like Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri and such.  

I think it's a great idea.  Clinton still has the same old Elvis magic.  He gives a speech better than Monika Lewinski smokes a cigar. Wink  There are a lot of Monday Morning quarterbacks who say that this was one of Gore's (many) big errors.  The Lewinski/Jones debacle was still fresh and Gore thought that Clinton was too tainted by it to be much use as a campaigner.  I think that was a poor decision, but hindsight is 20-20.

Clinton is going to stump for Kerry, and I think it can only help.  The polls still show everything very tight.  The race is a close one and people are sticking to their guns.  It's too close to call right now.  I don't expect a big bump from the conventions, either.

freedomburns

Having Clinton Campaign in the gravy states is a good idea. The gravy states are the ones that he has an off-chance of winning and doesn't need to count on.  Even if Clinton can help make them competive increases the  number of toss up states and makes Bush have to spread his attention thinner.
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Siege40
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« Reply #2377 on: July 30, 2004, 09:27:37 am »
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Shouldn't Clinton, if he campaigns a lot, be able to win Arkansas for Kerry?

Now, I know it isn't the same when he runs as compared to when he endorses, etc. But still, he's a fairly recent ex-president and favourite son. If he could knock up Arkansas by a few % that could well be enough.

Well, what I have heard recently is that that has become exactly the plan.  Kerry has embraced Clinton and asked him to spend the next three months campaigning around the southern swing states like Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri and such.  

I think it's a great idea.  Clinton still has the same old Elvis magic.  He gives a speech better than Monika Lewinski smokes a cigar. Wink  There are a lot of Monday Morning quarterbacks who say that this was one of Gore's (many) big errors.  The Lewinski/Jones debacle was still fresh and Gore thought that Clinton was too tainted by it to be much use as a campaigner.  I think that was a poor decision, but hindsight is 20-20.

Clinton is going to stump for Kerry, and I think it can only help.  The polls still show everything very tight.  The race is a close one and people are sticking to their guns.  It's too close to call right now.  I don't expect a big bump from the conventions, either.

freedomburns

That's odd... those are the states I specifically name.... I'm not suppose to be good at politics.... wierd

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President - July 1, 2005 - Nov 4, 2005
Secretary of State - Mar 6, 2005 - July 1, 2005
Senator - Nov 5, 2004 - Mar 1, 2005
Northeast Governor - Aug 29, 2004 - Nov 5, 2004
Northeast Lt. Governor - Apr 9, 2004 - Aug 29, 2004

PC Scores: Econ - -6.25 Social - -4.26

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AuH2O
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« Reply #2378 on: August 01, 2004, 04:39:04 pm »
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Clinton can't win anything for Kerry.

In fact, I can't think of a single example of someone out of office delivering a state via campaigning.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2379 on: August 01, 2004, 05:40:18 pm »
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Clinton and the DNC hurt McBride in Florida vs JEB Bush back in 2002. You know the one where JEB won by 13% and somehow it's all irrevelant to 2004. Roll Eyes
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freedomburns
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« Reply #2380 on: August 07, 2004, 07:19:42 pm »
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I think Dazzleman said it best:  The very presence of a Perot-type candidate illustrated Bush's weaknesses.

In that case, the very presence of a Ralph Nader-type candidate should illustrate Kerry's weaknesses.  

If it weren't for the reality of the five states that were so close in 2000 that Nader's votes arguably made the difference, more people would vote for him this time.  Also, he would be given a greater forum to expound his policies, like he should be.  The two-party system is rigged to maintain power stays with the two parties.  They have a virutal lock-hold on power in the US.

freedomburns
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tweed
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« Reply #2381 on: August 15, 2004, 12:21:31 pm »
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Current Snapshot:


Kerry/Edwards 312
Bush/Cheney 226

Kerry has been up since he picked Edwards (mid-July) on my map.  I'm trying my best not to get excited, because I learned my lesson in 1992 when Perot dropped out.
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Siege40
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« Reply #2382 on: August 16, 2004, 12:28:43 pm »
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Current Snapshot:


Kerry/Edwards 312
Bush/Cheney 226

Kerry has been up since he picked Edwards (mid-July) on my map.  I'm trying my best not to get excited, because I learned my lesson in 1992 when Perot dropped out.

Well I don't know. I agree with 96% with your prediction. However, the most recent poles I've seen have Bush winning Nevada. Also, in most poles I've seen Missouri is a dead die. But in the end it'll go Bush. Making Missouri the incorrect Bellweather state only twice in its history (Adlai Stephenson I think was the other).

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President - July 1, 2005 - Nov 4, 2005
Secretary of State - Mar 6, 2005 - July 1, 2005
Senator - Nov 5, 2004 - Mar 1, 2005
Northeast Governor - Aug 29, 2004 - Nov 5, 2004
Northeast Lt. Governor - Apr 9, 2004 - Aug 29, 2004

PC Scores: Econ - -6.25 Social - -4.26

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StatesRights
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« Reply #2383 on: August 18, 2004, 09:31:38 pm »
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Here is a map from the realm of impossible :

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Ernest
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« Reply #2384 on: August 18, 2004, 10:17:10 pm »
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Agreed.  There is no way that Bush would win Alabama and lose Mississippi.  Put Mississippi into the Bush column and that map would be merely very extremely improbable.
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« Reply #2385 on: August 23, 2004, 07:26:00 am »
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Kerry 296 / Bush 242

Dave
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Shira
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« Reply #2386 on: September 17, 2004, 12:24:33 pm »
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Kerry 296 / Bush 242

Dave

I wish the Brits and the Canadians could participate in the US elections.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2387 on: September 17, 2004, 12:25:53 pm »
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Kerry 296 / Bush 242

Dave

I wish the Brits and the Canadians could participate in the US elections.

I wish England would take New England back.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #2388 on: September 17, 2004, 12:29:34 pm »
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I wish Texas was still in Mexico.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2389 on: September 17, 2004, 12:31:01 pm »
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I wish Texas was still in Mexico.

Me too.
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Siege40
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« Reply #2390 on: September 17, 2004, 04:15:56 pm »
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The tide seems to have shifted, for me at least it's a predicted Bush win.... sadly.

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President - July 1, 2005 - Nov 4, 2005
Secretary of State - Mar 6, 2005 - July 1, 2005
Senator - Nov 5, 2004 - Mar 1, 2005
Northeast Governor - Aug 29, 2004 - Nov 5, 2004
Northeast Lt. Governor - Apr 9, 2004 - Aug 29, 2004

PC Scores: Econ - -6.25 Social - -4.26

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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2391 on: September 17, 2004, 05:54:20 pm »
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I wish Texas was still in Mexico.

Me too.

I wish Spain had kept Florida.
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amkbailey
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« Reply #2392 on: September 22, 2004, 10:17:16 am »
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I think that the current predictions are making this site irrelevant except for historical election information.  We all have to admit that there are only 2 possible winner to this election.  No, one of them is not Badnarik as the perdictions would have you think, but it is Bush and Kerry.  I think that people should be a little more realistic about who they think will win.  It is a perdiction page not a fantasy page.  My last perdiction was made in protest to the obvisously skewed picks.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #2393 on: September 22, 2004, 10:22:34 am »
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I think that the current predictions are making this site irrelevant except for historical election information.  We all have to admit that there are only 2 possible winner to this election.  No, one of them is not Badnarik as the perdictions would have you think, but it is Bush and Kerry.  I think that people should be a little more realistic about who they think will win.  It is a perdiction page not a fantasy page.  My last perdiction was made in protest to the obvisously skewed picks.

You have the predictions and the mok elections confused.  You can't pick anyone but Bush and Kerry on the prediction page.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2394 on: September 25, 2004, 07:33:39 am »
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New Prediction


332-206...or 336-202, can't remember.
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there's no ghosts in the graveyard, that's not where they live
they live in between a, 'what is' and 'what if?'
Hitchabrut
republicanjew18
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« Reply #2395 on: September 26, 2004, 10:53:24 am »
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I guess I think the Dutch should've kept NY and the English can keep MA and RI.
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Brace yourselves for me.

Economic Left/Right: 7.05
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 0.67
ArthurBranch
mpirner
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E: 4.65, S: 6.78

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« Reply #2396 on: October 09, 2004, 04:40:15 pm »
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Alright, my map is up!  How do I post it?
« Last Edit: October 09, 2004, 04:53:43 pm by mpirner »Logged
muon2
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« Reply #2397 on: October 09, 2004, 05:41:20 pm »
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Alright, my map is up! How do I post it?
It is posted in the predictions area. The image is here:

If you quote this message you'll see the link to your map.
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Donovan
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« Reply #2398 on: October 10, 2004, 05:01:54 am »
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Alright, my map is up! How do I post it?
It is posted in the predictions area. The image is here:

If you quote this message you'll see the link to your map.
Alright, my map is up!  How do I post it?
It is posted in the predictions area. The image is here:

If you quote this message you'll see the link to your map.

DO you seriously think that Kerry is going to lose Oregon, MN, and New Jersey. Bush already pulled funding from NJ and Oregon.
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K. Osmers
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« Reply #2399 on: October 10, 2004, 10:12:50 am »
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I wish Texas was still in Mexico.

We're not all bad... Sad
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