Ecuador's presidential election

[ThePrezMex]

Hey, it seems that nobody noticed that today Ecuador is holding the first round of its presidential election. I know, Ecuador, along with Bolivia, is a failed and disastrous country (sorry if I offend somebody, but I think that's true - we can debate it), but I've seen other not very interesting races being discussed here.
Besides, it is an important election, because it is one of Hugo Chavez's last chances of influence elections in Latin America in the way he wants.
After pro-Chavez candidates failed in Peru and Mexico this year (Thank God!), he now has Ecuador and Nicaragua.
There are four main candidates, and like ten minor ones. No one is going to win right away, it looks likely, and they will go to a runoff. However, up to some weeks ago, it was looking as if the two leftist candidates (one more pro-Chavez than the other) were going to advance: Leon Roldos (left) and Rafael Correa (very left/pro-Chavez - despite having an economics degree from the United States). And the Conservative candidates were going to fail: Alvaro Noboa (reportedly the richest man in Ecuador) and Cinthya Viteri (a very attractive pro-business and pro-market woman).
Now it seems like the run-off will be between Correa and Noboa.
If Correa wins, then Ecuador is fully aligned with Venezuela/Bolivia/Cuba (and Nicaragua next month) - if Noboa wins, then Ecuador will not be aligned with Venezuela, but Chavez will for sure try to destabilize him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hey, Viteri is hot.

I'd still vote for Correa though. He called Bush "incredibly dim-witted". We need someone willing to tell it like it is.

[YoMartin]

Correa might be leftist, but he´s not touching the country´s dollarized economy. So, I´m not really sure about a "full alignment" with Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia. Venezuela has $$$ and oil to offer, but these last two...

BTW, Correa is not running candidates for Congress. And we know how non-partisan presidents (in Ecuador, Brazil, Peru) have failed in the past...

[Tender Branson]

Hey, Viteri is hot.

She´s over 40 and looks like 25

[AuH2O]

She is hot.

Noboa won the first round and faces Correa in the runoff. If Noboa can take most of Gutierrez' and Viteri's support he should win.

Funny thing is, Chavez has really been kind of a big help to the US. His endorsement is now pretty much a kiss of death.

[ThePrezMex]

They haven't even finished to count all the votes, but with 94% of the votes counted Noboa has 26.6% and Correa 22.8%
In third place came another leftist, Leon Roldos; in fourth, former President Lucio Gutierrez and in fifth, Viteri (with around 9% of the votes).
Viteri's votes very probably are going to go to Noboa, but he would still be 15 points behind. And Correa could propably count with most of Roldos' votes which would put him in around 40%. So the key is Lucio Gutierrez. He's very unpredictable. If you all remember, when he got into the presidency he campaigned on issues very close to Chavez - then, when he was president he actually became much more conservative and continued sound economic policies - which eroded his support and he was then overthrown (not only because of that but for many other reasons). So, it's hard to know where he stands.

I was checking an Ecuadorean newspaper while writing this, and Correa is changing his strategy. He just said that he would break with Chavez if he meddles with Ecuador's internal affairs and that he would help Colombia to fight the FARC guerrillas. Seems that this Correa guy is way smarter than Peru's Ollanta Humala, who didn't not criticized Chavez and was defeated by Alan Garcia in the run-off. So, Correa is apparently learning that Chavez can be the kiss of death and he's trying to portray himself as his own man. However, I'm convinced that is mere political posturing and he's still in bed with Chavez.