Virginia Senate: Allen Vs. Webb

[RJ]

I've been looking at the polls in this race for quite a while now and I'm still having a hard time believing this race is even close, let alone George Allen could lose. Polls are reporting anything from Allen by 2-6%, although more of them are closer to 2.

Is it really this close? I was convinced that this race and recent events were a bump in the road, especially with a rightist state like Virginia and given the fact that Allen is such a favorite son. What happened? There must be more to this than Allen making a fool out of himself with recent(month and a half old) comments.

Does Webb still have minimal funding? What does he have to do to win?

[nini2287]

Allen's run about as bad of a campaign as possible which is why his lead has shrunk so much.  However, I think pretty much everyone whom Allen's offended have joined the Webb camp and if Webb were to make up the remaining ground; he'd have to do it on the issues.  From what I've seen so far, Webb isn't a great articulator and I don't think he'll be able to do it.  I'd like to be proven wrong, however.

[bullmoose88]

National tide against GOP, VA may be trending D somewhat (albeit slowly), but I don't think Webb can get any closer barring a major change

[Deano963]

Unfortunately, Allen by 0-5%. Sigh........

[bullmoose88]

I said Allen 0-5%

[Nym90]

Allen by less than 5, although Webb could well win.

[Smash255]

Allen by 2%.  With everything that has happened in this race, combined with VA trending Democrat (and northern VA FLYING Democratic) though southern & western VA's GOP trend holds the overall Dem trend down somewhat it is still moving leftward, I don't see Allen winning by anymore than he did in his 00 race when he knocked off Robb

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Looking into my crystal ball... ok paper weight....

Allen wins by 2.6%

[okstate]

Allen will win by about 3-4 points. However, if demographic trends continue in Virginia expect a lot more Dem success in '08 and then again in '12

[7,052,770]

Unfortunately, Allen by 0-5%. Sigh........

[MarkWarner08]

As of now, Allen wins 50-48-2. In three weeks, who knows what the climate will look like. Webb will need that extra boost from Fmr. Gov. Warner in the last week.

[adam]

As of today, I have Allen winning by 1%-2%

[Adlai Stevenson]

Webb unfortunately can't win.  This is due to mainly to Gail Paker who shaves off about 2% of the vote who would clearly support Webb.  What I can't understand is why Webb hasn't made areas in Southern Virginia with conservative Democrats more competetive? 

[Democratic Hawk]

Allen by between 0%-5%, unfortunately

Dave

[Virginian87]

What pessimists we have here on the Democratic side.  There's still a couple of weeks, and it's ENTIRELY realistic that Webb can win.  The polls in this race are starting to closely shadow those of the Virginia gubernatorial race last year.  Kaine was the underdog for nearly the whole campaign, and then pulled ahead only in the last week or so.

I'll go out on a limb and say Webb by 0.5-1%.

Call me a partisan hack if you will, but if some Republicans are still predicting a Santorum win in Pennsylvania, I think Webb has at least as good a chance.

[Eraserhead]

I think he loses by 2% now.

[Adlai Stevenson]

What pessimists we have here on the Democratic side.  There's still a couple of weeks, and it's ENTIRELY realistic that Webb can win.  The polls in this race are starting to closely shadow those of the Virginia gubernatorial race last year.  Kaine was the underdog for nearly the whole campaign, and then pulled ahead only in the last week or so.

I'll go out on a limb and say Webb by 0.5-1%.

Call me a partisan hack if you will, but if some Republicans are still predicting a Santorum win in Pennsylvania, I think Webb has at least as good a chance.

You partisan hack you!  Actually what you say gives me renewed hope - I suppose its feasible if there is a Democratic wave that gives us Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Tennessee then Virginia could narrowly fall into our column.  I believe that kind of thing has happened before.

And as others have said, the fact that Kaine was behind until the last week of the 2005 campaign and that Warner is going to campaign in the last week doesn't mean its over.  Plus the DSCC's new ad campaign. 

[auburntiger]

The GOP realizes that PA, MT are lost causes, and they're pulling money out of OH and RI and focusing HEAVILY on MO, TN, VA.

That said, the GOP will hold onto 2 out of those 3, if not hold onto all 3.
VA: Allen by 3%
TN: Corker by 2%
MO: Talent by 0-0.5%

OH: Brown by 3%
PA: Casey by 6%
RI: Whitehouse by 4%
MT: Tester by 5%

For what it's worth, I think the Dems will take the House.

[JSojourner]

Webb certainly has a better chance in the Old Dominion than Santorum in Pennsylvania.  That said, George Allen has that pro-football, NASCAR, far right conservative thing going that lots of my good 'ol boy friends in Virginia love.  (At least half my customers are Virginians.)

What I do find interesting is this.  (And please, this is PURELY anecdotal so take it with a huge grain of salt.)  Webb seems popular among the Virginians I've talked to from military families and traditions.  His past service to this country may get those Tidewater-Norfolk-Virginia Beach votes John Kerry couldn't get.  Oh, believe me...I know Kerry SHOULD HAVE gotten those votes.  But there's a difference in some voters' minds between a decorated hero from Massachusetts...and one who served in the Reagan administration.

Whether Webb wins or loses, he was the Democrats' very best choice for the job. 

[Virginian87]

What I do find interesting is this.  (And please, this is PURELY anecdotal so take it with a huge grain of salt.)  Webb seems popular among the Virginians I've talked to from military families and traditions.  His past service to this country may get those Tidewater-Norfolk-Virginia Beach votes John Kerry couldn't get.  Oh, believe me...I know Kerry SHOULD HAVE gotten those votes.  But there's a difference in some voters' minds between a decorated hero from Massachusetts...and one who served in the Reagan administration.

Kaine beat Kilgore in Norfolk, Newport News, and Virginia Beach, and he's not even a veteran.  There is no doubt in my mind that Webb can do the same.  Plus Phil Kellam is running a great campaign in Virginia Beach to unseat Thelma Drake in the 2nd District.  This could help bring a lot of support to Webb from this area.

To win the election, Webb must win handily in Northern Virginia (and especially the more conservative exurbs like Loudoun and Prince William Counties).  He also must strongly capture metro Richmond and try to make inroads in Hanover County, Chesterfield (always a challenge), and Fredericksburg.  If he can win Hampton Roads, as well as take enough votes away from Allen in Southwest and the Piedmont, he can win the election.  Of course, that last part is the most challenging, but with Webb's moderate social stances and pro-Second Amendment views (not to mention that he has roots in the panhandle), I believe he will do better in Southwest than most people expect.

[Raoul Takemoto]

Allen by 4.

[RJ]

That said, George Allen has that pro-football, NASCAR, far right conservative thing going that lots of my good 'ol boy friends in Virginia love.  (At least half my customers are Virginians.)

This is why I think Allen will win by 5-10%. I'll say the fact that Ohio and Tennessee are "red" states Bush carried is irrelevant since the governors races in those states are over and the Democratic candidate will win, giving close senate races in those states a coattails effect.

But this is Virginia. There's no such race this year there. Everyone also admits Webb hasn't done much in the line of campaigning, or at least effective campaigning. Furthermore, Virginia has gone Republican in every presidential election since 1964, one of only 2 states east of the Mississippi to do that. That tells me Virginians vote Republican for national offices. I'm not quite buying into this "trending Democrat" thing.

If I'm a Republican, this race right here makes me the most nervous.