If the SNP won. A few questions....

[afleitch]

I’m going to put forward a few questions that I wonder if anyone can answer. I'll post my own thoughts later

Imagine the SNP has won the May 07 elections. It is the largest party and has managed to secure a coalition and a majority. Before the parliament reconvenes, the SNP state that they will hold a referendum on independence immediately, and have the ‘numbers’ in parliament to do so. Support for indepenendece has a slight advantage in the current polls. It is now July 2007.

1. Tony Blair. He is still PM, and in his mind, was due to stand down around now. But with a possible constitutional crisis could he be urged and make a case for, staying on?

2. Gordon Brown (or John Reid) expects to be voted as Labour leader and PM. But being Scottish, his own future in parliament and even as a British citizen is now in question. Would the Labour Party have second thoughts and plump for a non-Scottish leader?

3. The House of Commons. It is unsure whether or not Holyrood or the Commons has the authority to call for an independence referendum. If it is the Commons, then what would happen if they decline, or if the MP’s vote against a bill allowing for an independence vote? Would Holyrood organize it’s own and would support for independence increase north of the border because of the constitutional snub by Westminster. Or would the Commons vote it through and hope it fails when the time comes.

It is now October 2007. Scotland has voted for independence with the date itself set for November 30th.

4. With Scotland due to leave the UK, and presumably it’s MP’s with it, what happens to Scottish born MP’s? Will Brown/Reid take British citizenship and hope to find a seat in England and would this be seen by the English public as ‘saving their own skin’? Again could this also hurt Liam Fox for example and result in a fresh leadership election for the Liberal Democrats. Or could they all head north and try their hand at running for the Scottish Parliament or presumably a new Senate?

5. With Scotland independent, the current Commons is trimmed and Labour’s majority has automatically been wiped out. Would the PM, whether it be Blair or Brown or someone else be forced to call a new General Election? Which party would benefit from the situation?

6. Wales. There are presumably calls by Plaid and other parties for more powers for the Assembly. Would this be granted or would there be waryness that Wales may follow Scotland’s lead?

[Harry Hayfield]

Question 5:

Composition of the current House of Commons
Lab 355 Con 198 Lib Dem 63 SNP 6 Plaid 3 Ind 2 Respect 1 NI 18

Composition of Boundary Changed Commons (2009)
Lab 344 Con 214 Lib Dem 63 SNP 6 Plaid 2 Ind 2 Respect 1 NI 18

Scotland removed from the Commons
Lab 303 Con 213 Lib Dem 52 Plaid 2 Ind 2 Respect 1 NI 18 Lab maj 15

Wales Referendum
YES 33% NO 67% (based on support for Plaid Cymru and turnouts)

[merseysider]

There is no way in the world the Scots would vote for independence - it may hold a certain emotional appeal when they're stopped on the street and asked by a pollster (the 'Braveheart' factor), but when asked to cut themselves off from the rest of the UK (and the Westminster block grant) support would melt away like an ice cream on a 35C summer afternoon.

The best thing I ever heard about the Scots came from the former SNP MP Jim Sillars when he lost his seat in '92 - they are a nation of "Ninety Minute Nationalists".

Even if the SNP win the Scottish parliament elections they will probably only do so with less than a third of the vote and dependent on various odds-and-sods like the Greens and the remnants of the Sheridan Party. It is possible they could form a pact with the LibDems, in which case the LDs may insist that there is no referendum anyway.

Plus the Nats have a great knack for seizing defeat from the jaws of victory. Everyone thought Iraq would give them a big boost last time but they ended up losing seats, and getting barely 20% of the vote. Their support is a mile wide and an inch deep.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suspect that if the SNP won by enough to be in a position where they could realistically try to call/argue for/whatever a referendum (which currently looks unlikely, but just about possible), Westminster would insist on something more than 50%+1=Indepedence.
You would probably be looking at either a demand for over two thirds to be in favour, or for over 80%, 90% (or whatever) of the electorate to have voted. Maybe both, or something similer.

[afleitch]

but when asked to cut themselves off from the rest of the UK (and the Westminster block grant) support would melt away like an ice cream on a 35C summer afternoon.

Of course it all depends on who is exactly subsidising whom It is a myth that we are subsidised. The UK generates £12.2 bn in oil from off the Scottish coast. From 1982-2002 while the UK developed a £410 bn defecit, Scotland by itself produced a £24bn surplus. As for government expenditure as a % of GDP, Scotland ranks lower than Northern Ireland, the North East, Wales, the North (including Merseyside;) and is almost evens with the Midlands.

Also when it comes to water...well lets just say they would have to start flooding Wales again

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course it all depends on who is exactly subsidising whom It is a myth that we are subsidised. The UK generates £12.2 bn in oil from off the Scottish coast. From 1982-2002 while the UK developed a £410 bn defecit, Scotland by itself produced a £24bn surplus.

Because that oil is clearly going to last forever

[afleitch]

Of course it all depends on who is exactly subsidising whom It is a myth that we are subsidised. The UK generates £12.2 bn in oil from off the Scottish coast. From 1982-2002 while the UK developed a £410 bn defecit, Scotland by itself produced a £24bn surplus.

Because that oil is clearly going to last forever

Of course not. But Scotland has the potential to supply 90% of the UK's energy needs in wind and off shore wave power alone. And any energy surplus to sell is a good thing

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Of course it all depends on who is exactly subsidising whom It is a myth that we are subsidised. The UK generates £12.2 bn in oil from off the Scottish coast. From 1982-2002 while the UK developed a £410 bn defecit, Scotland by itself produced a £24bn surplus.

Because that oil is clearly going to last forever

Don't you know that peak oil is just liberal propaganda spread by crazy anti-oil extremists like Boone Pickens?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course not. But Scotland has the potential to supply 90% of the UK's energy needs in wind and off shore wave power alone. And any energy surplus to sell is a good thing

I refuse to believe any and all claims about the wonder/white elephant that is renewable energy that include statistics higher than "20%"... and I get suspicious about those

Btw, I actually think that the SNP would be better off arguing for increased powers for Holyrood, rather than pushing for a referendum on Indepedence that would likely have enough strings attached to all-but guarantee defeat... the biggest mistake the PQ ever made was to call that referendum in the early '80's; and they had greater control over it than the SNP would have.

[Colin]

Of course it all depends on who is exactly subsidising whom It is a myth that we are subsidised. The UK generates £12.2 bn in oil from off the Scottish coast. From 1982-2002 while the UK developed a £410 bn defecit, Scotland by itself produced a £24bn surplus.

Because that oil is clearly going to last forever

Don't you know that peak oil is just liberal propaganda spread by crazy anti-oil extremists like Boone Pickens?

How about you only post if you have something relevant to the conversation?

[Harry Hayfield]

First off, if the SNP wins the most seats, it will be with around 30% of the vote. The Scottish Greens, who also advocate independence, will win around 8%, and the SSP and Solidarity, while being wiped out in Holyrood, will together pull maybe 3%. That bumps up electoral support for independence to 41%; not exactly a resounding declaration.

The SNP, LDs and Greens form a coalition. That's the only feasible coalition now that the LDs have basically ruled out working with Labour combined with Labour, the Conservatives and the SNP being absolutely unable to tolerate each other. Together, those three parties hold a clear majority: the SNP won 30%, the LDs 19% and the Greens 8%. The LDs, while not advocating independence, are willing to go along with the idea of a referendum if only to shut the SNP up when it fails with around 40% of the vote.

The government calls for a referendum. Support for the LDs falls in UK-wide polls in the wake of their support for a referendum but rises in Scotland at the expense of their coalition partners. The SNP and Greens campaign heavily for independence while Labour and the Conservatives campaign heavily against it, Labour perhaps more ardently as electorally Scotland is a wasteland for the Tories. The LDs launch a last-minute campaign against independence when it looks like the referendum will succeed.

The referendum succeeds. Never mind how unlikely that is; it does. The independence of Scotland is set for November 30th. The LDs are wildly unpopular in England for allowing the referendum, but in Scotland they find their support in those who oppose independence. Tony Blair stays PM with the intent of guiding Labour into another election immediately following Scottish independence.

At this "snap election", the LDs are all but wiped out in what's left of the UK. Labour survives as government, and gains both votes and seats, as they are the primary beneficiaries of the LDs' collapse. Many leading Labour MPs from Scotland move to London and drive out the backbench Labour MPs there, but are punished for parachuting and many lose and return to Scotland. A new Labour majority emerges, but an unstable one built of a coalition of Labour loyalists and Liberals from the LDs.

So that means (averaged over the two votes), you're saying:

SNP 30%
Lab 25%
Lib Dem 19%
Con 15%
Greens 8%
SSP 2%
Solidarity 1%

which if we put into an electoral calculator gives us:

SNP 38
Lab 35
Lib Dem 22
Con 17
Green 16
Falkirk West Ind 1

[afleitch]

Good timeline

While I believe the Lib Dems would see support fall back, I can't see Labour getting out of this 'Scot' free The loss of Scotland and a constitutional crisis would hit them hard. I can see the Conservatives campaigning on a platform to 'secure' the remainder of the UK's North Sea reserves as well as other shared resouces.

In Scotland the rump Conservatives would however collapse, with most joining the SNP (which would itself probably be renamed National) forming a right of centre party with Labour swinging slightly to the left (it is already slightly left of UK party at present)

A few Conservatives would remain of course with a rump vote of around 10%, opposed to the Nationals policy of entry into the EU (which may be automatic according to how the articles of various treaties are interpreted) and supportive of entry into NATO, which the Nationals may end up opposing.

Of course, bear in mind this time next year we could be having this discussion for real....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course, bear in mind this time next year we could be having this discussion for real....

Perhaps. But a lot of things would have to happen between now and then for it to happen.

It'd be stupid to rule it out completely, but it would be foolish to assume that a relatively clean and trouble free seperation could happen in just a few months.

[Colin]

Harry there's a Mixed Member Proportional electoral calculator? If so where can I find it?

Afleitch that is alot of ifs but it is a possibility. The politics of an independent Scotland would be interesting. I do agree that the SNP would probably actually move into the right-of-centre catagory with pro-independence liberals forming a new liberal party outside of the old, anti-independence, Liberal Democrats. Labour would remain the major left-wing party though I can see the Greens or possibly the Scottish left, under either SSP or some other form, if they can hold together form some sort of nationalist left.

The Conservatives would be the wild card. You are right they could just fold into the SNP if unionism goes the way of the dino but it is possible that they could become a rump on the right and move into a far right wing camp, anti-EU, anti-immigration, anti-SNP, very pro-free market. So you could basically end up with a party that kinda looks like UKIP or Progress up in Norway. They would still have some clout since Scotland independent would probably retain a Mixed Member Proportional system. It's likely that an independent Scotland might end up with a political system that could be nationalist left-nationalist Green-anti-nationalist Labour-pseudo-nationalist liberal-nationalist SNP-far right.

I must say that I would support an independent Scotland. I have no real idea why, I guess an old style nationalist sentiment mixed with the fascinating idea of new countries being born that makes me support independence movements. Are you pro-independence afleitch?

[afleitch]

Are you pro-independence afleitch?

What the SNP offer is not just the vision of an independent Scotland, but an independent low tax business haven. And that made my ears prick up I’ve always been a nationalist with a small ‘n’; I’ve always believed Scottish interests should come first. But I have never flirted with the prospect of independence until quite recently. I’m the sort of person who sits and reads through pages of economic data and the SNP have a very strong case. I am beginning to agree with the assertion that our existence within the UK is dragging our economy down. I don’t believe that is a deliberate tactic, I just believe it is a by product of the way in which the country is run.

There is also an increasing misplaced ‘anti-Scottishness’ south of the border that is annoying me. We are increasingly portayed as a nation with disproportionate influence in Westminster, that there shouldn’t be a Scottish PM (completely disregarding the whole concept of union) and that Scotland is a subsidy junkie. What was most galling was reading a letter in the newspaper from a man from Newcastle complaining we take more than our fair share while being blissfully unware or uninterested in the face that the North East fairs far worse.

Labour’s failure to answer the ‘West Lothian Question’ does not do anyone any favours; Scottish MP’s should not, either though law or through courtesy vote on laws that solely affect England and Wales and I’ve not met a Scot (outside of the Labour Party) who doesn’t think the same.

Support for independence is always hard to measure, but it does appear to have a slim lead. What we will see next spring is the SNP pushing for it in a positive light, and Labour and other parties saying it would have a  negative impact. The fact that the SNP spent almost 3 years carrying out a full scale ‘costing’ of the entire Scottish economy from trade to tax should give it some ammunition to fight with.

I am I pro independence? In this context, and if we see a business friendly low tax economy as opposed to current situation then I would say I was. Even if I decided against it, should Westminster refuse to organise a referendum if Holyrood ask them too, or organise one with unfair strings attatched, then I would be intensly angry if I thought the Scottish people were being denied their right to decide on their future.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is also an increasing misplaced ‘anti-Scottishness’ south of the border that is annoying me.

Ever noticed the anti-Englishness in Scotland?

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What do you think of as an unfair string though? Westminster would never be so stupid as to allow Scotland to seperate based on 50% +1 in a referendum with a low, or even average, turnout; to expect that is just naive.
I suspect that the likely conditions would be a large margin in favour on a high turnout; or it's possible that a certain % of the population or electorate (rather than of votes cast), say 55%, would be required instead.

[afleitch]

I suspect that the likely conditions would be a large margin in favour on a high turnout; or it's possible that a certain % of the population or electorate (rather than of votes cast), say 55%, would be required instead.

50+1 with no restrictions on turnout was good enough for the Scottish (and Welsh) ’97 referenda, which bear in mind Labour wanted to pass So to move the 'goalposts' would be difficult to justify.

Besides apathy does not mean those who did not vote are in favour or not in favour of something- they have chosen not to express an opinion. Any turnout based restrictions, as was the case in 1979 even though the ‘Yes’ vote won would I’m sure be bitterly opposed. But I agree that a 55% margin may be required as was the case in Montenegro in order to gain EU recognition.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

50+1 with no restrictions on turnout was good enough for the Scottish (and Welsh) ’97 referenda, which bear in mind Labour wanted to pass So to move the 'goalposts' would be difficult to justify.

There is a big difference between devolution and seperation. Btw, I actually wouldn't mind giving Scotland (almost) everything but an actual seperation; I suppose going down the Quebec road. That's something that will probably happen at some point.

IMO the threat of a referendum to beat out more money and powers from Whitehall is a much better weapon for the SNP than a referendum would be; because if they were to lose a referendum, what then? The unhappy fate of the PQ after it's referendum defeats is something that Salmond must be aware of.

[Harry Hayfield]

Harry there's a Mixed Member Proportional electoral calculator? If so where can I find it?

It's called UK-Elect and can be bought at www.ukelect.com

[Harry Hayfield]

So that means (averaged over the two votes), you're saying:

SNP 30%
Lab 25%
Lib Dem 19%
Con 15%
Greens 8%
SSP 2%
Solidarity 1%

which if we put into an electoral calculator gives us:

SNP 38
Lab 35
Lib Dem 22
Con 17
Green 16
Falkirk West Ind 1

How would MMP give the Greens nearly as many seats as the Conservatives with half the votes? (I was just using the regional vote since constituency vote is nearly impossible to predict and useless for the Greens.)

Also, I don't find those numbers terribly unrealistic, though they are definitely optimistic from an SNP/LD/Green perspective; that's needed to even suppose a referendum.

Ah, I had assumed you were talking about the average of the constituency and regional votes and therefore put them in as stated above. You have to remember that all of the Greens wins were on the regional list

[merseysider]

It's called UK-Elect and can be bought at www.ukelect.com

I've got UK Elect and would thoroughly recommend it.

[Colin]

Harry there's a Mixed Member Proportional electoral calculator? If so where can I find it?

It's called UK-Elect and can be bought at www.ukelect.com

That's not for Mixed Member Proportional Systems though, IIRC. That's only for a prediction of seat totals in a FPTP system. Or do they have a Scottish version?

[afleitch]

Harry there's a Mixed Member Proportional electoral calculator? If so where can I find it?

It's called UK-Elect and can be bought at www.ukelect.com

The full package comes with Scottish and Welsh results, as well as European elections and local council elections and every General Election back to 1983; good price too.

I am not entirely satisfied with their method of predicting Scottish seats at Holyrood, but it is the only one on the market.

That's not for Mixed Member Proportional Systems though, IIRC. That's only for a prediction of seat totals in a FPTP system. Or do they have a Scottish version?