House seats going against the flow?

[merseysider]

It's looking as if the Democrats could gain 20 or so seats and possibly win the House (although I have only CNN, Washington Post, USA Today etc to go on).

However, are there any seats which are likely to go against the flow and swing from D to R?

I've heard that there are two Democratic seats in Georgia which look a bit dicey and heard the Republicans were making a fight of it in Vermont's at large district (of all places). Anyone going to bet on any districts?

[nini2287]

I've heard that there are two Democratic seats in Georgia which look a bit dicey and heard the Republicans were making a fight of it in Vermont's at large district (of all places). Anyone going to bet on any districts?

Welcome to the forum!

There are only a couple Democratic-held seats that are competitive but quite frankly they probably won't flip.

The Georgia ones are two of them, Vermont is very much a long shot for Republicans.

The Republicans' best chance might be Illinois' 8th district, where Democrat Melissa Bean ousted a long-term Republican in 2004 in deep red territory.  In the House, Bean has a very moderate voting record (especially on fiscal issues-she voted for CAFTA) and has picked up the endorsement of the Chamber of Commerce.  Nevertheless, this is deep Republican country and the GOP thinks they have a chance.  However, given the national tide against the Republicans and Bean's voting record, I think she'll hang on.

[Deano963]

Melissa Bean is considered our most vulnerable incumbent, and her campaign released an internal showing her with a 16-point lead. Even if it is way off she still appears safe. I am willing to bet at this point that no seat held by a Democratic incumbent or a Democratic open seat will switch to R.

And as far as how many seats the Dems are going to pick up...it's gonna be more than 20. Probably just over 30.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Bean's seat is pretty much it. Both of the Georgia seats are safer than thought. Marshall is a fairly conservative Democrat and I think was up 20 points against his likely opponent, Barrow's district was made much less Democratic, but still voted for Kerry and is Democratic-leaning. Not the type of seat to flip this year.

The GOP initially tried for WV-01 due to the incumbent's ethical problems, but polls have him way ahead and they appear to be abandoning it.

[Sam Spade]

GA-08, GA-12 and IL-08 are not particularly what I would call against the flow.

VT-AL is, but it's only because the Republicans have a really good candidate.

A seat that I've been noting for a while now that could go against the flow is OR-05.  Also, the two parties have been spending money on IA-03, so note that.

I doubt any other seats are worth talking about.

[okstate]

The only Dem-held seat that I've been hearing much buzz about is Darlene Hooley out in Oregon, but even some Republicans have admitted that this year is more about grooming their candidate for 2008 than it is about actually ousting her this cycle.

Other than that, Melissa Bean is the only one in any danger, but her fundraising prowess is such that any GOP opponent is going to have trouble taking her on, especially in an election like this one.

Some in the GOP also are still dreaming about beating Charlie Melancon or Chet Edwards, but that's just what I said it is - dreaming.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The GOP initially tried for WV-01 due to the incumbent's ethical problems, but polls have him way ahead and they appear to be abandoning it.

It didn't help that they managed to pick a candidate with a few ethical problems of his own

[Alcon]

I feel ashamed for asking this while living in an adjacent state, but why s Hooley so weak?

[Sam Spade]

I feel ashamed for asking this while living in an adjacent state, but why s Hooley so weak?

Challenger has poured over $1 million into the campaign and Hooley has responded by pouring nearly $1 million into her own campaign.  Has nothing to do with polls, really. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am looking at CT 05 to change party hands that would be an upset, I am looking at the three CT house districts for party control of the house and if the dems win all three they are certain to win the house. Murphy leads in internal polling done by the DSCC. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The GOP initially tried for WV-01 due to the incumbent's ethical problems, but polls have him way ahead and they appear to be abandoning it.

It didn't help that they managed to pick a candidate with a few ethical problems of his own

Also he's an Arab American.

He's not Muslim and it's pathetic if that's a real drag, but I can't see it playing too well among Republican voters in rural West Virginia.

[GOP = Terrorists]

I am looking at CT 05 to change party hands that would be an upset, I am looking at the three CT house districts for party control of the house and if the dems win all three they are certain to win the house. Murphy leads in internal polling done by the DSCC. 

Don't expect all three to flip. I'd love it but if we get 2 out of 3 we should be very happy.  Expecially if one of them is the horrible disgusting Nancy Johnson.