House Polling Discussion: Charlie Bass, Survey USA, John Hostettler, and others

[okstate]

http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061015/COLUMNISTS12/110150143/-1/OPINION01

I've never heard of the Becker Institute, but they have Bass down 11 points. ARG, which is generally a little better in New Hampshire - to my knowledge - has him up six points. Still, six points is a serious erosion from what the University of New Hampshire has been finding.

Also, on the front of more signs of improving Democratic prospects in the elections, Taegan Goddard says Survey USA will have four new congressional polls out tonight showing significant Democratic increases.

UPDATE: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=90e269a7-c39f-49c3-b63f-a51207b40149

Colleen Rowley pulls to within 8 points in Minnesota-2. Also Survey USA says their soon-to-be-released polling in AZ-5, CA-50, and NM-1 is showing big shifts to the Democrats.

[Sam Spade]

It's possible; Scoonie would definitely like to agree. 

Becker Institute does not have the greatest record in NH polling, though.  In 2004, their last iteration on October 1 was Kerry 49, Bush 43, which was totally out of line with other polls at the time and pretty far off the final result, though still within MOE.

Historically, the only place ARG's ever been worthwhile to pay attention to is New Hampshire, but in 2004 they did predict Bush would win by 1, which was wrong.  Usually, as I remember from their past, their polls lean slightly Republican in NH, which is very different from a lot of their other polling.

I am curious to see if UoNH will poll again (normally under The Granite State Poll).  Considering my usual hatred of university polls,  it is to be noted UoNH is historically the best pollster in New Hampshire time and time again.  They nailed 2004, did the best in 2002 (slightly too Dem) in the tough to call Sununu-Shaheen battle, and did OK in 2000 (slightly too GOP)

[okstate]

Speaking of bad university polls, did you see Indiana State U.'s new poll of the Hostettler race in Indiana? Sample with 60 percent women has Hostettler down 23 points, no surprise. (However, they said when the poll was weighted equally by gender, Hostettler was still down 21).

This further cements my impression that Hostettler is the most vulnerable of the three Indiana GOPers in danger. Chocola has the money and Sodrel has the decent polling results, but Hostettler has neither, except for slightly better partisanship numbers than what Sodrel or Chocola are facing.

[Nym90]

If there is a true national wave, Bass will lose. If not, he hangs on. It seems to be a seat that would perfectly into that category.

[okstate]

I tend to rely too heavily on polling in my political prognostications, but I am beginning to believe that there will indeed be a wave on November 7th. The only thing holding me back are favorable results for the GOP in WA-08, CO-07, and maybe IA-01 (if you believe Zogby). There are still just that handful of districts that are defying the trend and are moving back to the right or not moving at all.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If there is a true national wave, Bass will lose. If not, he hangs on. It seems to be a seat that would perfectly into that category.

Whether Bass gets a bit wet or whether he's sitting underwater with other bass depends on the size of the wave.

[Sam Spade]

If there is a true national wave, Bass will lose. If not, he hangs on. It seems to be a seat that would perfectly into that category.

Whether Bass gets a bit wet or whether he's sitting underwater with other bass depends on the size of the wave.

Size of the wave has little to do with what happens with Bass, though he could be in less or more danger compared to the strength of the wave; where it hits the strongest is the most important question to ask.

This is often a very difficult question to answer and the polls rarely do it justice.  I don't think anyone came anywhere close in 1994 of saying that Washington State would be the epicenter of the wave that happened then.

[WalterMitty]

bass will pull it out.

[Democratic Hawk]

Speaking of bad university polls, did you see Indiana State U.'s new poll of the Hostettler race in Indiana? Sample with 60 percent women has Hostettler down 23 points, no surprise. (However, they said when the poll was weighted equally by gender, Hostettler was still down 21).

Yes, I saw it. I've adopted IN-02, IN-08 and IN-09, BTW. Yes, this poll had an overly large number of females (60.5%). The female vote broke for Ellsworth by 56.3% to 29.6%, which was very close to the final 54.5% to 32.1% margin; while men broke for Elsworth by 51.4% to 36%

So they weighted the results to equalise men and women and came up with a weighted result of 54.1% for Ellsworth to 32.1% for Hostettler

Personally, I don't think Ellsworth is leading by that much. I'd need to see a non-university poll in IN-8 to confirm this kind of lead

I've been number crunching the internals for the RT Strategies/CD poll (September 8-10), which had Ellsworth leading Hostettler by 6% among all voters:

1) Among women, Ellsworth leads Hostettler by 60% to 36%
2) Among men, Hostettler leads Ellsworth by 56% to 42%

However, among those most likely to vote, Ellsworth leads Hostettler by 56% to 41%

So, if the Indiana State University poll is anywhere near accurate, which is arguable, there has been a sizeable shift among men from Hostettler to Ellsworth

Dave

[TheresNoMoney]

On the Hodes race: Like I've mentioned before, this race is close. I do not believe Hodes is up 9%. I am a volunteer on the campaign and I think Bass probably has a small lead of 2-5%, with a ton of undecideds.

The Hodes campaign is starting to pick up momentum and get more publicity. They have a good amount of money to run ads these last three weeks and the DCCC is also chipping in at least $150,000.

Hodes can win. NH-02 went for Kerry by 5% and will only continue to move towards the Democrats in coming years.

[okstate]

The RedStar-Tribune's latest poll has Wetterling (D) up 8 points on Bachmann for MN-06 (OPEN, Kennedy). http://www.startribune.com/587/story/746993.html