Washington Times: Rove predicts a GOP victory again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20061018-123042-6508r.htm

[MODU]

While I'm confident that the GOP will retain the Senate, I think the house is lost.  Not sure what Rove is smoking.

[Whacker77]

What else would you expect him to say?  If he said, "We're doomed", then you might have a story.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Notice what is absent is how many seats, last time he said 8-10, now he hasn't said the number. The GOP has conceded 12 seats, but they aren't conceding more than that, so they are thinking they can still win the House.

[agcatter]

Come on guys.  The election is 3 weeks away.  It is silly to buy into anything Rove says or, for that matter, the inside the beltway prediction of a Democratic tidal wave. 

The last two to three days we should have a very good handle on it.

I am not as optimistic as Rove and not as gloomy as the MSM would have us all believe.  I would rather wait 18 or 19 days to let things shake out.

Rove is a political genius.  However, he is only human.  I believe he missed seeing the late last two day trend toward Gore in the 2000 election.  On the other hand, the MSM didn t seem to pick up on the last minute GOP trend in 2002.

The last minute surge toward either side will probably make all the difference in between 8 - 12 House seats and a couple of key Senate races.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know it was reported that the Dems are taking out loans and they are going to try to win 40 seats, I don't buy into that.

[MODU]

I know it was reported that the Dems are taking out loans and they are going to try to win 40 seats, I don't buy into that.

I doubt they are aiming for 40 seats, but they are definitely in a cash crunch at the moment.  I can easily see them trying to tap a line of credit or something through the end of the month.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But the talk of 40 seat gain was too optimistic.  1994 was different, because the GOP hadn't controlled the House in 40 years, so they were due.

[Nym90]

But the talk of 40 seat gain was too optimistic.  1994 was different, because the GOP hadn't controlled the House in 40 years, so they were due.

Actually as Sam Spade has noted, if current polling is to be believed, Democrats indeed would probably pick up 40 seats. However, the GOP has a huge money advantage, and things are likely to tighten a little as the fallout from the Foley scandal is probably boosting Democratic numbers right now. So a gain of about 25 seats is more realistic.

[Conan]

If you keep telling yourself something, then its true.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I disagree, there 25 Republican house seats in play, but they aren't necessarily going to the Dems. I think 12-20 is more realistic.

[A18]

If after all of this, the GOP manages to retain both houses, I will conclude that God is a registered Republican.

[nlm]

I know it was reported that the Dems are taking out loans and they are going to try to win 40 seats, I don't buy into that.

Actually they are talking about taking out loans and upping the level of competition in a number of races. I don't think the expectation is that they will win in every race they add cash flow to, only that they will win more seats than if they don't - which is most likely true.

[memphis]

Rove is a political genius. 

Bull. He's an idiot. He is personally responsible for the self-destruction of his party.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

However, the expectation is that they will be a whole of seats more than expected and that may not be the case. As far as God being a registered republican if republicans keep both houses, I wouldn't go that far, but it is an uphill climb for the republicans, but it can be done.

[J. J.]

Rove is whistling in the dark.  I'm betting on a 18 seat loss and will be stunned if the GOP stays in control.