Okstate's (Novice) House Predictions

[okstate]

Republicans:

Likely Democrat:

1 AZ-08 (OPEN, Kolbe)
2 TX-22 (OPEN, DeLay)
3 IN-08 (Hostettler)
4 NY-26 (Reynolds)
5 PA-10 (Sherwood)

Lean Democrat:

6 NY-24 (OPEN, Boehlert)
7 NC-11 (Taylor)
8 IN-02 (Chocola)
9 OH-18 (OPEN, Ney)
10 FL-16 (OPEN, Foley)
11 CO-07 (OPEN, Beauprez)
12 NM-01 (Wilson)
13 PA-07 (Weldon)
14 IA-01 (OPEN, Nussle)

Tilt Democrat

15 OH-15 (Pryce)
16 PA-06 (Gerlach)
17 IN-09 (Sodrel)
18 WI-08 (OPEN, Green)
19 CT-02 (Simmons)
20 FL-13 (OPEN, Harris)

Tossup

21 CT-04 (Shays)
22 MN-06 (OPEN, Kennedy)
23 IL-06 (OPEN, Hyde)
24 NY-20 (Sweeney)
25 VA-02 (Drake)
26 FL-22 (Shaw)

Tilt Republican

27 WA-08 (Reichert)
28 NY-29 (Kuhl)
29 OH-01 (Chabot)
30 PA-08 (Fitzpatrick)
31 CT-05 (Johnson)
32 NY-19 (Kelly)
33 WY-AL (Cubin)

Lean Republican

34 NY-25 (Walsh)
35 KY-04 (Davis)
36 OH-02 (Schmidt)
37 KY-03 (Northup)
38 NV-03 (Porter)
39 NH-02 (Bass)
40 AZ-01 (Renzi)
41 NV-02 (OPEN, Gibbons)
42 IL-10 (Kirk)
43 AZ-05 (Hayworth)
44 CA-11 (Pombo)
45 NY-03 (King)
46 CO-04 (Musgrave)
47 NJ-07 (Ferguson)

Likely Republican

48 CA-04 (Doolittle)
49 CO-05 (OPEN, Hefley)
50 MN-01 (Gutknecht)
51 ID-01 (OPEN, Otter)
52 TX-23 (Bonilla)
53 CA-50 (Bilbray)
54 NC-08 (Hayes)
55 PA-04 (Hart)
56 KY-02 (Ryun)
57 IA-02 (Leach)
58 OH-12 (Tiberi)

Watch List

59 MN-02 (Kline)
60 NH-01 (Bradley)
61 NE-01 (Fortenberry)
62 VA-10 (Wolf)
63 FL-08 (Keller)
64 IL-19 (Shimkus)
65 FL-09 (OPEN, Bilirakis)

DEMOCRATS:

Lean Democrat

1 IL-08 (Bean)
2 GA-08 (Marshall)

Likely Democrat

3 IA-03 (Boswell)
4 GA-12 (Barrow)
5 VT-AL (Sanders)
6 OR-05 (Hooley)

Watch List

7 OH-06 (OPEN, Strickland)
8 SC-05 (Spratt)
9 WV-01 (Mollohan)
10 LA-03 (Melancon)
11 TX-17 (Edwards)
12 KS-03 (Moore)
13 SD-AL (Herseth)
14 IL-17 (OPEN, Evans)


First, to analyze the Democrats. The first five seats are the only ones that have any real chance of flipping at this point. The national GOP has basically given up on beating Spratt, Mollohan, Melancon, and Edwards. On a seat-by-seat basis, though, I see no reason to believe that the Democrats will lose ANY seats at all in the House this year. Statistically, we wouldn't expect that to happen, but its what I'm predicting.

Now for the longer list of Republicans. Quite frankly, if the polling is all correct, my predictions are not favorable enough for the Dems, IMO. The five likely Dem seats are nearly guaranteed pickups for the Democrats at this point. Hostettler has basically given up campaigning, Reynolds is sliding massively in the polls, and Graf is a loser. Even in the lean Dem seats its surprising that Nussle's seat is looking so much better. Weldon rises in the list thanks to the ongoing investigations there, and for that reason his companion Gerlach has dropped somewhat. Sodrel is much less vulnerable than thought previously, but still in trouble.

Overall, I am predicting Democratic gains of 23 seats. I think it is more likely at this point that they will gain 40 or 50 seats than it is that they will win less than 8 or 10.

For the Senate...

Lean GOP

Kyl
Allen

TOSSUP

Talent
OPEN (Frist)

Lean Dem

Menendez
Chafee

Likely Dem

OPEN (Sarbanes)
OPEN (Dayton)
Cantwell
Burns
DeWine
Santorum

Democrats gain between 4 and 6 seats. If I had to guess I'd say they get six today, but Missouri and Tennessee are very much in flux. Notable changes here include DeWine shifting all the way to Likely Dem on the basis of polling which shows him collapsing and finds Stickland increasing his lead in the statehouse race.


Governor Races

Likely Republican

CA Schwarzenegger
FL OPEN (Bush)
GA Perdue
SC Sanford
TX Perry
VT Douglas

Lean GOP

AK OPEN (Murkowski)
NV OPEN (Guinn)
RI Carcieri

Tossup

IA OPEN (Vilsack)
MN Pawlenty

Lean Democrat

ME Baldacci
MI Granholm
OR Kulongoski
WI Doyle
MD Ehrlich

Likely Democrat

IL Blagojevich
PA Rendell
AR OPEN (Huckabee)
CO OPEN (Owens)
MA OPEN (Romney)

The only notable Safe Democrats are their pickups of New York and Ohio.
Dems will gain between 5 and 8 statehouses, with the most likely number at 6.

Criticisms of a constructive nature are welcomed! Discuss all you like.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This one.