Past BBC Election Exit Polls 1983 - 2005

[Harry Hayfield]

A contact has sent me his videos of the 1992, 2001 and 2005 general elections and as a result of that I am now able to post the details of the BBC exit polls from 1983 - 2005 hoping that that other person who has been posting exit poll data will post ITN's figures for the same elections so we can see who's been the most accurate over the last 6 general elections:

1983
% Share: No numbers published prior to first declaration
Seats: Con 398 Lab 208 All 21 Oth 23

Actual Share: Con 42% Lab 28% All 25% Oth 5%
Seats: Con 397 Lab 209 All 23 Oth 21

Error Share: Uncalculable
Error Seats: Con +1 Lab -1 All -2 Oth +2

1987
% Share: Con 40% Lab 35% All 23% Oth 2%
Seats: Con 338 Lab 261 All 26 Oth 25

Actual Share: Con 42% Lab 31% All 23% Oth 4%
Seats: Con 376 Lab 229 All 22 Oth 23

Error Share: Con -2% Lab +4% All 0% Oth -2%
Error Seats: Con -38 Lab +32 All +4 Oth +2

1992 (Marginals only)
(To compensate for the fact that the exit poll was conducted in marginals only, I have used UK-Elect to identify the top 100 Con marginals in 1987)

% Share: Con 42% Lab 38% Lib Dem 19% Oth 1%
Seats: Con 301 Lab 298 Lib Dem 24 Oth 28

Actual Share: (in said marginals) Con 44% Lab 35% Lib Dem 18% Oth 3%
Seats: Con 336 Lab 271 Lib Dem 20 Oth 24

Error Share: (in said marginals) Con -2% Lab +3% Lib Dem +1% Oth -2%
Error Seats: Con -35 Lab +27 Lib Dem +4 Oth +4

1997
% Share: Lab 47% Con 29% Lib Dem 18% Oth 6%
Seats: (based on battleground graphic) Con 169 Lab 423 Lib Dem 38 Oth 29

Actual Share: Lab 43% Con 31% Lib Dem 17% Oth 9%
Seats: Lab 419 Con 165 Lib Dem 46 Oth 29

Error Share: Lab +4% Con -2% Lib Dem +1% Oth -3%
Error Seats: Lab +4 Con +4 Lib Dem -8 Oth 0

2001
% Share: Lab 44% Con 32% Lib Dem 17% Oth 6%
Seats: Lab 408 Con 177 Lib Dem 44 Oth 30

Actual Share: Lab 41% Con 32% Lib Dem 18% Oth 9%
Seats: Lab 413 Con 166 Lib Dem 52 Oth 28

Error Share: Lab +3% Con 0% Lib Dem -1% Others -3%
Error Seats: Lab -5 Con +11 Lib Dem -8 Oth +2

2005
% Share: Lab 37% Con 33% Lib Dem 22% Oth 8%
Seats: Lab 356 Con 209 Lib Dem 53 Oth 28

Actual Share: Lab 35% Con 32% Lib Dem 22% Oth 11%
Seats: Lab 356 Con 198 Lib Dem 62 Oth 30

Error Share: Lab +2% Con +1% Lib Dem 0% Oth -3%
Error Seats: Lab 0 Con +11 Lib Dem -9 Oth -2

[AMOLAK MANN]

I think i was about to do 1992 here goes:
1992: ITN shares were I believe 41% Con 37% Lab Lib Dems 18% as broadcast at ten though i understand Lab share dropped one point to 36% later.

ITN seats:305 Con 294 Lab 25 Lib Dem 27 Other
(BBC unbroadcast shares were 40.0% Con 36.3% Lab,18.3% Lib Dem,5.4%other and updated seat forecast at 11pm before any results was 305/296/22/28)

1997:ITN shares(extrapolated from marginals)Lab 46% Con 30% Lib Dem 18%

         ITN seats: Lab 409 Con 177 Lib Dem 45 Others 28


         BBC seats(unbroadcast but published in stats journal) Lab 434 Con 155 Lib Dem 43 Others 27

2001:ITN shares(extrapolated from marginals) Lab 44% Con 31% Lib Dem 19%

         ITN seats Lab 417 Con 154 Lib Dem 58 Others 30

2005: same as BBC

[AMOLAK MANN]

almost forgot Sky News 1992

shares Lab 41% Con 38% Lib Dem 18% Others 3%
seats: Lab 307 Con 302 Lib Dem 18 Other 24

[AMOLAK MANN]

forgot BBC shares 1983 sorry!
Con 44% Lab 29% alliance 26%