Somebody is wrong.. :) ABC says Kerry Up, TIPP says Bush Up - Take your pick!

[The Vorlon]

ABC News: June 17th - 20th (Registered Voters)
Sample size = 1200

Kerry 48
Bush 44
Nader 6

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/trend_062104.html

TIPP - Registered Voters (June 13th-19th)
Sample Size = 1000

Bush 44
Kerry 41
Nader 6

http://www.investors.com/editorial/issues.asp?v=6/15

Harris Says Bush +10 (unlikely)
Pew says Bush +4
IBD says Bush +3
Rasmussen says Kerry +3
ABC says Kerry +4/+8

Ok.. that's clear... I understand now...

[The Vorlon]

Gallup should be closer to ABC than TIPP based on methodological similarities.

We'll see tomorrow

[The Vorlon]

Alternative #1

TIPP Bush +3
Harris Bush +6 (registered)
Pew Bush +4
ABC Kerry +4/+8
Gallup +> More or less agrees TIPP/Harris/Pew

=> ABC is a bad sample

Alternative #2

TIPP Bush +3
Harris Bush +6 (registered)
Pew Bush +4
ABC Kerry +4/+8
Gallup +> More or less agrees with ABC

=>Brief Reagan bounce, Kerry on Top

[The Vorlon]

Alternative #1

TIPP Bush +3
Harris Bush +6 (registered)
Pew Bush +4
ABC Kerry +4/+8
Gallup +> More or less agrees TIPP/Harris/Pew

=> ABC is a bad sample

Alternative #2

TIPP Bush +3
Harris Bush +6 (registered)
Pew Bush +4
ABC Kerry +4/+8
Gallup +> More or less agrees with ABC

=>Brief Reagan bounce, Kerry on Top

Agreed.  It'll be interesting to see Gallup!  I'd wager it shows a small Kerry lead.  But who knows?  Time will tell.  We'll see.  And the ABC/WP poll is no help on its own.  It fits the up/down trend reasonably and its sample doesn't seem terrible.  But, it is still a fairly good shift from TIPP and its sample doesn't seem "great".

8% to the dem side is a bit off in the ABC sample, but that does not explain it all by any means.

TIPP and ABC collect (as oppose to anaylse0 data almost identically

The MOEs intersect at +/- a tie...

If Gallups says tied, I'll take "door #3" please

We will see tomorrow