Great graph to post. The scientist in me likes to look at trends and this one is loaded. The most interesting trend is that before 9/11 the trend was flat even during real recession months. But since and including 9/11, there have been three external events that caused rapid upward spikes. Except for those the trend has been down and with a uniform slope. That's surprising since normally I would expect a sharper fall of initially followed by a leveling of the trend line.
Naive analysis on my part would be that there is a continual "tiring" of the public with Bush that is perked by these unusal events (9/11, the Iraq war, Saddam's capture). Without evidence of a leveling off of the trend, Bush would need one or more singular events to provide the necessary improvement in ratings before November.
ABC Polls have generally been very favorable to Bush compared to other polls put out at the same time. This could be another signal of a major change in the polls. If Bush and Kerry would tied the whole time during the polls this election wouldn't be interesting, Looks like we have a really fight on our hands.
