Somebody is wrong.. :) ABC says Kerry Up, TIPP says Bush Up - Take your pick!

[millwx]

ABC News: June 17th - 20th (Registered Voters)
Sample size = 1200

Kerry 48
Bush 44
Nader 6

TIPP - Registered Voters (June 13th-19th)
Sample Size = 1000

Bush 44
Kerry 41
Nader 6

The MOEs on these two polls are about 3%.  So, I'd just call it a tie.

Also, though I know there's been great debate about this... several polls have shown Kerry getting a much greater percentage of undecideds.  Note that the TIPP poll has far more undecideds (9% left over uncommited compared to only 2% uncommited in the ABC/WP poll).  Obviously, Kerry wouldn't get all the undecideds... not even close.  So, there's still some discrepancy here.  But I don't think they're as contradictory as they look on face value.  Like I said, I'd just call them even.

[millwx]

Nice graphic...


Consider the fact that Reagan's death occurred a bit of the way into the AP/IPSOS poll.  And these polls are charted in chronological order, with the most recent one on top.

Makes me wonder if the Harris poll was right... that Bush's Reagan bounce was greater than expected, but extremely brief.  The rise up and drop back down in this chart is quite smooth and "normal".  Excluding the LA Times poll, three of the four pre-Reagan-death polls show Kerry up by a few percent.  Then the AP/IPSOS poll draw them to a near tie.  Fox/OD (right after the death) holds it there.  Pew brings Bush up by a few.  Harris widens the Bush lead to 10%.  TIPP trims it back to a few percent.  And then ABC/WP puts Kerry back up by a few.  Not coincidental, in my opinion, the Rasmussen daily tracking - though failing to show the Bush lead to the degree Harris does - has the same timing of the swing, putting Kerry back up by 3% today (though, admittedly, that is only one day in the daily track).

I'd bet The Vorlon is right... Gallup will be similar to ABC/WP, but not just because of methodologies... but because this was a real "ebb and flow".

[millwx]

Alternative #1

TIPP Bush +3
Harris Bush +6 (registered)
Pew Bush +4
ABC Kerry +4/+8
Gallup +> More or less agrees TIPP/Harris/Pew

=> ABC is a bad sample

Alternative #2

TIPP Bush +3
Harris Bush +6 (registered)
Pew Bush +4
ABC Kerry +4/+8
Gallup +> More or less agrees with ABC

=>Brief Reagan bounce, Kerry on Top

Agreed.  It'll be interesting to see Gallup!  I'd wager it shows a small Kerry lead.  But who knows?  Time will tell.  We'll see.  And the ABC/WP poll is no help on its own.  It fits the up/down trend reasonably and its sample doesn't seem terrible.  But, it is still a fairly good shift from TIPP and its sample doesn't seem "great".