Tradesports Nomination rankings

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Democrats:

Clinton 52.1
Edwards 13.5
Obama 12.9
Edwards 9.0
Kerry 3.1
Bayh 2.4
Vilsack 2.2
Feingold 2.1
Richardson 1.7
Biden 1.5
Clark 1.4
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.5
Others <= 0.3

Republicans:

McCain 44.5
Romney 14.0
Giulani 13.5
Huckabee 6.0
Rice 4.1
Gingrich 4.0
Hagel 3.4
Allen 3.0
Brownback 1.3
Frist 1.2
Cheney 0.8
Jeb Bush 0.8
Tancredo 0.8
Pataki 0.8
Graham 0.8
Powell 0.6
Owens 0.5
Others <= 0.2

Party:
Dems 48.4
GOP 48.0
Field 3.4

[memphis]

I'm super confident Hillary will not get the nomination. Dems are looking for a candidate without so much baggage who can win in moderate states like Ohio and Colorado.

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats:

Clinton 52.1
Edwards 13.5
Obama 12.9
Edwards 9.0

There's a typo here, as you list Edwards twice.  I think the first of those is supposed to be Gore.  However, as I type this, Obama has now surpassed Gore for second place, so it's:

1) Clinton
2) Obama
3) Gore
4) Edwards

with Obama, Gore, and Edwards all being very close.  What's interesting is that candidates who are all but certain to run, like Bayh and Feingold, are way down at 2-3%, while Obama and Gore, each of which probably has less than a 50/50 chance of running, are in second and third.  But this actually makes sense, as I think Obama and Gore are by far the strongest potential challengers to Clinton.  It's just that there's a good chance they won't run.  (Still, Feingold, Richardson, Bayh, and Vilsack are all a bit too low compared to the others.  Tradesports always overestimates the chances of those with high national name ID.  The others will become more well known once the campaign starts.)

On the GOP side, if you add up the probabilities for the top four contenders, you get a 79% chance that either McCain, Giuliani, Romney, or Huckabee will win the nomination.  But I actually think that number is too *low*.  I just don't see any of the others winning.  Allen, Gingrich, Hagel, and Rice are all overrated on Tradesports.  Heck, even Jeb Bush, George Pataki, Dick Cheney, and Colin Powell are overrated on Tradesports, at 1.2, 0.8, 0.8, and 0.6% chance of winning the nomination respectively.  There's always the chance that some surprise candidate will jump in and win, so I wouldn't put McCain/Giuliani/Romney/Huckabee all the way up to 100%, but higher than 79%?  Certainly.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I am a HUGE Obama fan, but I do believe that running in '08 would be a mistake.

He's getting a massive publicity boost from the book and Oprah and Time - but I want to see what happens once the fallout from Nov 7 settles. We should get things getting clearer.

[MasterJedi]

Just wait until the campaign starts and Tommy Thompson starts shooting up!

[memphis]

Just wait until the campaign starts and Tommy Thompson starts shooting up!

He shoots up? Gee, I never saw him as the type.

[Mr. Morden]

Incidentally, I think the next big movement we'll see in these numbers will come on Election Day.  If Allen is reelected, his number will increase by at least 50%.  If he loses, his number will drop down to near zero.  I don't know that any other potential candidate's chances are so closely tied to the '06 election results.  No other potential '08 candidate who's running for office this year is in danger of losing.

Then in November, December, January, and February, we'll see all the candidates declare their candidacies (er, announcing the formation of an "exploratory committee") one by one, and each candidate will get a boost at Tradesports when they announce.  A few potential candidates will announce that they're *not* running, and of course they'll drop to <1% at Tradesports.  Then there are folks like Rice, who have already said that they're not running, but are still pulling in a few percent on Tradesports.  As time goes on, and it becomes clear that they really mean it, and they're not going to run, their Tradesports price will gradually decline.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I actually have a pretty good feeling Gore is going to be our guy.

[Reaganfan]

I actually have a pretty good feeling Gore is going to be our guy.

Let's all hope.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I actually have a pretty good feeling Gore is going to be our guy.

Let's all hope.

He'll win, people will look back at what he was saying when everyone thought he turned into a crazy left-wing nut, and realize, holy sh**t!  Crazy 'ol Al was right!  Why do you Republicans think after 8 years of incompetence by a GOP administration, getting another one of their own elected is gonna be such a cakewalk?  Honestly.  Obama's too young.  Feingold's too liberal.  Hilary's crazy.  Gore's old news.  Is there any one Democratic hopeful that you people can't think up some stupid stereotype to attatch to them?  I remember when Warner was thinking about running.  Yous were saying that he was ONLY a one term gov.  Well, no sh**t, you can only serve one term in Virginia!