NH-02: Novak Report says Leans Democratic Takeover
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  NH-02: Novak Report says Leans Democratic Takeover
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Author Topic: NH-02: Novak Report says Leans Democratic Takeover  (Read 813 times)
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 25, 2006, 10:11:54 PM »

New Hampshire-2: Here's a surprise. No one expected Rep. Charlie Bass (R) to fall behind late in the game, but that's where he is. Bass appears to have been caught off his guard. He has been outraised by his repeat opponent, Paul Hodes, whom he defeated by 20 points in 2004. Republicans complain about Bass's lacksidaisical staffers and discuss the possible loss of his Northern New Hampshire seat. Bass's get-out-the-vote effort is extremely disorganized. He is also upsetting his base with ads that brought his pro-abortion stance into the race and that distance himself from the Republican Party.

It is unclear whether Bass can be saved in time. He just started a huge phone drive Tuesday to save his seat, and some Republicans remain hopeful that he can bounce back by November 7. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

http://www.humanevents.com/enpr/current_enpr.html

I was shocked when I saw this. I think Hodes is close and has the momentum, but I can't believe that anyone would think this is more than a toss-up. Does Novak have access to internal polling?

By the way, Hodes kicked Bass's ass in the televised debate tonight. Hodes was polished and eloquent, and hit Bass on all the right points.
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Whacker77
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2006, 10:26:09 AM »

I don't think he gets to see actual internals, but he does have an inside track with the Republican strategists.  More often than not though, he bases his choices more on available public polls.  I think that's why he went crazy on NH2.  I think one poll out of no where shouldn't require such a hasty move, but he was quite reliable in 2004.  He only missed to races in 2004, Rob Simmons being one of them.  He was dead wrong on CA50 this summer though.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2006, 10:44:29 AM »

scoonie, how does the nh-01 race look?
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TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2006, 12:02:59 PM »
« Edited: October 26, 2006, 12:05:16 PM by TheresNoMoney »

scoonie, how does the nh-01 race look?

Jeb Bradley will win by around 10%. Shea-Porter is fairly unknown and barely has any money to run ads (kind of the same situation Hodes was in in 2004). Plus, NH-01 went for Bush by 2% or 3%, while NH-02 went for Kerry by 5% or 6%.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2006, 02:59:52 PM »

scoonie, how does the nh-01 race look?

Jeb Bradley will win by around 10%. Shea-Porter is fairly unknown and barely has any money to run ads (kind of the same situation Hodes was in in 2004). Plus, NH-01 went for Bush by 2% or 3%, while NH-02 went for Kerry by 5% or 6%.

are salem and nashua both in nh-02?
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TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2006, 03:35:01 PM »


Yes. 

Nashua went for Kerry by 10% and I believe Salem was neck and neck, with Bush winning by 1%-3%.
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