NE-03

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I vote yes.

Kleeb is an excellent candidate, the Republican on the other hand is rather awful (Club for Growth backed too). And polls show it may be close, which is amazing, since a Democrat winning here would be like a Republican winning a Brooklyn district. Then again, the GOP did pick up a district in inner-city Chicago in 1994 so you never know...anyway as said above I do think Kleeb will break 40%, which in this district is absolutely fantastic.

He has some good ads too:

http://scottkleeb.com/about/tvads.php

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think this could be one of those elections.  I 'adopted' the House seats of KS-2 and NE-1 which I think have about a 25% chance of flipping to the Democrats; I'm not suggesting that NE-3 does but I think it will be exciting to look at what Kleeb gets or even pulls of an upset.  Everyone keeps on mentioning the races that will come from nowhere on election day. 

[Butch McCracken]

I vote yes.

Kleeb is an excellent candidate, the Republican on the other hand is rather awful (Club for Growth backed too). And polls show it may be close, which is amazing, since a Democrat winning here would be like a Republican winning a Brooklyn district. Then again, the GOP did pick up a district in inner-city Chicago in 1994 so you never know...anyway as said above I do think Kleeb will break 40%, which in this district is absolutely fantastic.

He has some good ads too:

http://scottkleeb.com/about/tvads.php

The 2006 Nebraska 3rd District race is nothing like the 5th District race in Illinois in that incumbent Dan Rostenkowski was facing serious corruption charges and was still on the ballot on election day. The Republican candidate won in 1984, but was defeated two years later.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hopefully he'll run for state leg sometime.

[nclib]

Believe it or not, Bush is actually making a campaign stop in this district Sunday.

[Democratic Hawk]

Believe it or not, Bush is actually making a campaign stop in this district Sunday.

And Scott Kleeb has issued a statement welcoming his visit and hopes that he'll be invited

In answer to the question, yes Scott Kleeb will break 40%. In fact, he deserves to win but whether he will or not is another matter

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

He has some good ads too:

http://scottkleeb.com/about/tvads.php

For the most part, they are positive . The only one, which is remotely negative, but highly appropriate given the office Adrian Smith is seeking, is the clip from the debate

The only candidate concerned for the well-being of this District is Scott Kleeb

Dave

[Bacon King]

Isn't that the district that gave Bush over 70%?

He seems like a nice guy, I hope he wins (no matter how much of a longshot that would be).

[nclib]

Yeah, Bush took 75% in that district.

[Democratic Hawk]

In 2004, Kleeb's home county, Blaine, voted Bush 301 (89%) / Kerry 38 (11%) for president and Osborne 316 (95%) and Anderson 16 (5%) for House

Bush is visiting the 3rd District to shore up support for Smith among Republicans. An internal poll for Kleeb showed only 62% of Republicans were backing Smith, while 21% were supporting Kleeb. Kleen led decisively among Independents by 55 to 29 and led 46 to 40, overall

Smith, like Sali in ID-01, is in hoc with the Club for Growth. Even conservative districts can reject the extremism it advocates

Dave

[RBH]

1990, Nebraska's 3rd District:

Bill Barrett (R): 98607 (51%)
Sandra Scofield (D): 94234 (49%)
Write-in: 103

The Third in 1990 did not have Knox, Cedar, Pierce, York, Fillmore, Saline, and Jefferson counties.

Other than that, the 1990 3rd and the 2006 3rd are the same.

[Democratic Hawk]

1990, Nebraska's 3rd District:

Bill Barrett (R): 98607 (51%)
Sandra Scofield (D): 94234 (49%)
Write-in: 103

The Third in 1990 did not have Knox, Cedar, Pierce, York, Fillmore, Saline, and Jefferson counties.

Other than that, the 1990 3rd and the 2006 3rd are the same.

Would the inclusion of those counties have swung the district significantly more to the GOP?

Dave

[nclib]

1990, Nebraska's 3rd District:

Bill Barrett (R): 98607 (51%)
Sandra Scofield (D): 94234 (49%)
Write-in: 103

The Third in 1990 did not have Knox, Cedar, Pierce, York, Fillmore, Saline, and Jefferson counties.

Other than that, the 1990 3rd and the 2006 3rd are the same.

Interesting...

Back then the district was still overwhelmingly Republican - I don't know the 1988 Presidential numbers but in 1992 they were:

H. W. Bush 49.7%
Perot 26.8%
Clinton 23.5%

[Democratic Hawk]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives,_Nebraska_District_3

The last Democrat to represent NE-03 was Lawrence Brock, who served one term from 1959-1961. He was the first Democrat since the 12-year tenure of Edgar Howard, who represented it from 1923-1935

Dave

[RBH]

1988-

NE-3: 67/32 Bush
Rest of Nebraska: 57/42 Dukakis

The 1983/1993 NE-3 is made up of 62 counties. Every county other than BURT, BUTLER, CASS, CEDAR, COLFAX, CUMING, DAKOTA, DIXON, DODGE, DOUGLAS, FILLMORE, GAGE, JEFFERSON, JOHNSON, KNOX, LANCASTER, MADISON, NEMAHA, OTOE, PAWNEE, PIERCE, RICHARDSON, SALINE, SARPY, SAUNDERS, SEWARD, STANTON, THURSTON, WASHINGTON, WAYNE, YORK

In 2004, those 62 counties went 75/23 for Bush.