Bulgarian presidential Election

[GMantis]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgarian_presidential_election%2C_2006
The elections will be held tomorrow. The candidates with the greatest chance of winning are Georgi Purvanov - who has had a massive lead in the polls, though it has decreased lately and Volen Siderov and Nedelcho Beronov, which are vying for the second place, with Siderov ahead. While Purvanov will likely gather 50% of votes, turnout, however, is expected to be very low and as the constitution requires at least 50% for the elcection to be recognized as valid, there'll likely be a second round.
The other candidates mainly add colour to the race. The only one with any impact on the election is Georgi Markov, a right-wing candidate who is drawing away votes from Beronov, making it very likely that Siderov will advance to the second round.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Who are you voting for?

[afleitch]

Certainly not Siderov....

[GMantis]

Who are you voting for?

I'm split between Parvanov on one hand and Petur Beron and Lyben Petrov on the other. The later do not have any chance of winning but they have at least consistent positions which I like.
As for Siderov, I agree with many of his positions, but I'm not going to vote for a mentally unstable extremist.

[freek]

According to polls, Parvanov won 64.0% of the vote, with a 40.0% turnout.

64% * 40% = 25.6% of those eligible to vote have voted for Parvanov.

When Parvanov would have had 50.1% of the votes, with a 50.1% turnout:

50.1% * 50.1% = 25.1% of those eligible to vote.

Conclusion: a second round is necessary because not enough people voted AGAINST Parvanov.

Weird election law...

[GMantis]

According to polls, Parvanov won 64.0% of the vote, with a 40.0% turnout.

64% * 40% = 25.6% of those eligible to vote have voted for Parvanov.

When Parvanov would have had 50.1% of the votes, with a 50.1% turnout:

50.1% * 50.1% = 25.1% of those eligible to vote.

Conclusion: a second round is necessary because not enough people voted AGAINST Parvanov.

Weird election law...

No, the second round is necessary because according to the constitution,
a candidate wins in the first round only if in addition to having over 50 % of the votes, at least 50 % of the electorate has voted. So there would be a second round even if Parvanov had 50.1 %. This law, by the way, is very common in eastern Europe - it is probably believed that if there isn't at least 50 % turnout, the election results won't be taken seriously.
About the results - they are not unexpected, but Parvanov's extremely large victory margin is. He actually won all municipalities in Bulgaria!

[freek]

No, the second round is necessary because according to the constitution,
a candidate wins in the first round only if in addition to having over 50 % of the votes, at least 50 % of the electorate has voted. So there would be a second round even if Parvanov had 50.1 %.

That is exactly what I mean. If the turnout would have been 10% higher, a second round wasn't necessary. Even if every voter in this 10% didn't vote for Parvanov, but for one of the other candidates.

[GMantis]

A small correction - Siderov actually won one municipiality with 9 votes. Strangely, it is one of the richest in Bulgaria, where Beronov would be expected to do better.
Here are some results by region and maps.
http://www.electoralgeography.com/en/countries/b/bulgaria/2006-president-elections-bulgaria.html
Polls seem to show an overhelming advantage to Parvanov, but Siderov's supportes are more active, so results may be close - under 20% margin, I mean.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good link

[GMantis]

Well, Parvanov wins with a record 52% margin and becomes the first Bulgarian president to be reelected in a popular election.
Siderov is claiming that the election was falsified, but while the ethic turkish MRF, which supported Parvanov, probably employed its usual methods of "election influencing"( i.e. double voting, vote buying and so on), he won't be able to prove much, and Parvanov had enough support to win on his own anyway.