Let's talk Generic Ballot Polling

[okstate]

So, in the last week we have eight national Congressional generic ballot polls out. All are of likely voters, and they show Democrats leading by between 11 and 22 points. They show the GOP support level ranging from 35 to 41 percent, and the Democrat support level ranging from 44 to 57 percent.

Now I know that generic ballots are not predictors of individual seat gains. But I believe that they are predictors of national trends. We've heard many pundits speculate on a possible trend back to the GOP over the last week or so. My question is the following: What trend?

CNN's polling has remained essentially flat, improving for the Dems by one point between Oct 15 and 22. ABC's poll has done the same.

FOX News sees a 2 point improvement for Democrats. So has Zogby.

Newsweek has measured a six point improvement for Democrats.

The Cook/RT Strategies poll has seen the Democrats' margins double to 22 points.

The AP poll also has dramatic gains for Democrats - 9 points worth.

The only poll to show tightening is Gallup, which has gone from a 23 point Democrat lead to a 13 point Democrat lead.

The earliest poll used for comparison was the AP-Ipsos from Oct 2 - 4. The 2nd was four days after the Foley scandal broke.

So how about Republicans nationally? It's not that they haven't main significant gains -- it's that they've made no gains at all!

Sure, the Democrats may have hit a high point after the Foley scandal broke, but it's a high point that has lasted for at least 3 weeks now. With just over a week and a half remaining until the election, I'm questioning how the GOP plans to make up any of the gap.

I'll admit that some seat-by-seat polling, especially in the Senate, seems to contradict what I'm saying. But in all honesty, the gains made in Tennessee and maybe in Montana are not significant except in the fact that Republicans now have a chance in both races. (They always did in Tennessee, but Montana was slipping away). It's not like the GOP has suddenly gotten back a Senate seat. They haven't. So I'd be very wary of anyone trying to see a "GOP rebound" in the making until there's quite a bit of data to back it up out there.

Just some thoughts... I may be totally off-base here.

[Whacker77]

The Republicans haven't made gains nationally, but they have seen SOME improvement in the actual House and Senate races.  Talent's slightly ahead.  Corker's slightly ahead.  Allen's ahead.  Even Burns and Kean Jr. have slightly narrowed their deficits.  There are also some House races that have improved such as KY4 and VA2.  That's certainly better than the alternative.  I have to admitt though, I'm baffled by the difference in the national numbers and the House and Senate numbers.  The optimist in me would note that even when it was widely considered that Republicans were gaining in September, the generic polls never really tightened all that much.  By the way, I know that by responding to this thread with minimal Republican optimism, I'm going to be beseiged by Democrats.