My new Senate rankings

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Safe Democrat: CA, WA, HI, NM, ND, NE, MN, WI, MI, OH, PA, NY, MA, DE, WV, FL
Likely Democrat: MT, MD, RI
Lean Democrat: NJ
Tossup/slight lean Republican: MO, TN, VA
Likely Republican: AZ
Safe Republican: NV, UT, WY, TX, MS, IN, ME

Safe Indy: VT
Likely Indy: CT

It'll probably come down to whoever wins 2/3 of MO, TN, VA. I'd give the Republicans about 2/3rds odds there.

[Gabu]

Looks about right.  The only thing I'd change if I made a list would be to put MD in "lean", although I'm largely ambivalent on that one; it's somewhere in between the two designations.

[riceowl]

Looks good to me, though I think VA should be slightly safer than TN and MO

[NewFederalist]

Wow! Pretty fair and balanced. What is with you jfern? You have developed a sense of humor and fair assessments lately. I think the light green avatar agrees with you! Good on ya!!!

[Gabu]

Looks good to me, though I think VA should be slightly safer than TN and MO

VA probably goes under "slight lean Republican".  While I still think Allen will win, when you get polls showing the incumbent with only a 1- or 2-point lead, you can't really call it any stronger than that.

[cp]

It'll probably come down to whoever wins 2/3 of MO, TN, VA. I'd give the Republicans about 2/3rds odds there.

Safe Democrat: CA, WA, HI, NM, ND, NE, MN, WI, MI, OH, PA, NY, MA, DE, WV, FL
Likely Democrat: MT, MD, RI
Lean Democrat: NJ
Tossup/slight lean Republican: MO, TN, VA
Likely Republican: AZ
Safe Republican: NV, UT, WY, TX, MS, IN, ME

Safe Indy: VT
Likely Indy: CT

It'll probably come down to whoever wins 2/3 of MO, TN, VA. I'd give the Republicans about 2/3rds odds there.

Good analysis, but I think this year will produce more curve balls than you're predicting.

Harold Ford Jr. is doing too well in a state that should be stacked against him. His ads are substantive and his popularity is growing. Corker's ads look ridiculous by comparison and he's running on knee-jerk issues. It'll be close, but Ford Jr. will edge him out.   

McCaskill is running an excellent campaign and her ads are particularly persuasive. She also seems to have more of the issues on her side than Talent, who's running against his own shakey incumbency and a strong anti-incumbent tide in a bellweather state. It'll be close, but she'll take it.

Webb is doing a similarly good job in Virginia, with a tight ship, good ads, issue correspondence, and an upper hand in the ground war. He's getting more of the political establishment in Virginia onside and, despite being behind, and he's maintained the momentum in the last two weeks. He'll be neck and neck till the end, but like McCaskill, he'll squeak out a victory.

On the other hand, in New Jersey Menendez is faultering while Kean Jr. keeps getting the upper hand in the headlines and the air and ground wars. Menendez still hasn't shaken the corruption taint and Kean Jr. is making a better case for himself as a 'reformer' (whatever that means). Menendez won't collapse, but his numbers are anemic for this late in the campaign. They'll keep edging down till election day when Kean Jr. will beat him by a surprisingly large margin (5%+)

Or at least that's my theory.

Dems 49
GOP 49
Ind. 2

P.S. The House is foregone. It's time to place bets on the *size* of the Dem. majority, not the probability. The smart money is on D 225-230.

[Eraserhead]

Looks good to me, though I think VA should be slightly safer than TN and MO

The polls don't really seem to agree with that assesment anymore.