Charlie Cook just downgraded Maryland Senate race to...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Cardin - 52.6%
Steele - 45.7%
Other - 1.7%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Steele in the general:Mfume in the primary

[NHPolitico]

FYI, Rasmussen has a poll out today with Cardin up 5, 50-45.  Still premium, though.

A rumor is that black people are telling pollsters (and each other) one thing, but planning to support Steele in the secrecy of the voting booth.  Don't be surprised if we're surprised on Election Night. Steele is apparently spending resources in Prince Georges County. He must think it makes sense.

[Conan]

It would be very stupid for the black community in Maryland to elect someone who doesnt represent their interests just because they are black.

[Eraserhead]

Calling this race a tossup is almost like calling the Arizona Senate Race a tossup.

[Moooooo]

I should add for Nick (wrong thread though)...

O'Malley 50%
Ehrlich 47%

Damn, Sam, its close!

Tell me something like... this is just MOE movement. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

Hmmm well I was leaning to declare that I think Arizona will surprise people on election night as well. 

Anyway, back to Maryland, I think its not surprising that African Americans are supporting Steele in greater numbers.  As a community they have little reason to turnout for what seems to be a middle-class white and uninspiring statewide ticket; Steele at least represents the chance of one of their number entering an overwhelmingly white, middle-class institution.  When you get down to this level policies and parties hardly matter; and Steele has distanced himself from Bush and cleverly drawn attention to the fact that Cardin has been in elective office since 1966.  This race could be a warning call to the Democratic party not to take black voters for granted, however, the emergence of Barack Obama as a possible hopeful for 2008 and Harold Ford, Jr. should excite the base as well.  I do think Steele has a future in Maryland politics though.  He will be elected to something, eventually.  Although running for Governor would be easier race for him, much like Kean, Jr. in New Jersey.

[Jake]

It would be very stupid for the black community in Maryland to elect someone who doesnt represent their interests just because they are black.

It's stupid to stereotype blacks as people who won't be helped by conservative policies.

[Sam Spade]

I should add for Nick (wrong thread though)...

O'Malley 50%
Ehrlich 47%

Damn, Sam, its close!

Tell me something like... this is just MOE movement. 

Could be, on the other hand it might not be.  We both know this is going to be a dogfight down to the end.

[Conan]

It would be very stupid for the black community in Maryland to elect someone who doesnt represent their interests just because they are black.

It's stupid to stereotype blacks as people who won't be helped by conservative policies.

How do you know I am not black? No ones helped by conservative policies except for people who make more then 300,000 a year or the top 1% of people in this country. Many of whom blacks are not because they cant reach that goal because of conservatives.

[Conan]

Hmmm well I was leaning to declare that I think Arizona will surprise people on election night as well. 

Anyway, back to Maryland, I think its not surprising that African Americans are supporting Steele in greater numbers.  As a community they have little reason to turnout for what seems to be a middle-class white and uninspiring statewide ticket; Steele at least represents the chance of one of their number entering an overwhelmingly white, middle-class institution.  When you get down to this level policies and parties hardly matter; and Steele has distanced himself from Bush and cleverly drawn attention to the fact that Cardin has been in elective office since 1966.  This race could be a warning call to the Democratic party not to take black voters for granted, however, the emergence of Barack Obama as a possible hopeful for 2008 and Harold Ford, Jr. should excite the base as well.  I do think Steele has a future in Maryland politics though.  He will be elected to something, eventually.  Although running for Governor would be easier race for him, much like Kean, Jr. in New Jersey.

If Kean keeps going down his current course, he has no place in statewide office in NJ.

[Moooooo]

O'Malley rally today.

Those people werent fired up. /sarcasm

[NHPolitico]

It would be very stupid for the black community in Maryland to elect someone who doesnt represent their interests just because they are black.

Blacks verifiably did this in the LG race, so it doesn't matter how stupid it is. This board is about voting behavior, regardless of our opinion of it.

[7,052,770]

This is why I supported Mfume so strongly in the primaries.  If Mfume were the candidate, he'd have the black vote locked up.

[Moooooo]

This is why I supported Mfume so strongly in the primaries.  If Mfume were the candidate, he'd have the black vote locked up.

I'm afriad you're right.  My gut told me to go with Mfume the last few days before the primary, but my brain said Cardin.  O'Malley would be a lock, too, with high Af-American turnout.  Now we're looking at a demoralized African American community that may either stay home (hurts O'Malley) or vote Steele (hurts Cadin).

The one thing O'Malley has done very wrong this campaign is not use Anthony Brown enough.  The guy is a super star in the making.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The one thing O'Malley has done very wrong this campaign is not use Anthony Brown enough.  The guy is a super star in the making.

So is he likely Maryland's first black governor?

Actually, how likely is a Steele vs. Brown gubernatorial race in the future? Also what do you think the odds are of an O'Malley Presidential run? I've heard at least one person prediction O'Malley is a future President.

[Moooooo]

The one thing O'Malley has done very wrong this campaign is not use Anthony Brown enough.  The guy is a super star in the making.

So is he likely Maryland's first black governor?

Actually, how likely is a Steele vs. Brown gubernatorial race in the future? Also what do you think the odds are of an O'Malley Presidential run? I've heard at least one person prediction O'Malley is a future President.

Well, if O'Malley wins in 2006, I believe Brown will eventually run for Governor or Senate.

If Steele loses this year, he's finished.  Against a candidate like Brown or Cummings, Steele wouldnt stand a chance.

The O'Malley Presidential hype is nothing more than hype.  He's never once mentioned it.  People just assume because he's good looking and charismatic that he is going to run for President.  If he wins, will he run one day?  I have no idea, but nothing leads me to believe he will for sure.  The guy is a rock star though.  We really need him to win in Nov 7th.

[AuH2O]

The fact-- note, the FACT-- that Steele pulled many black votes for Ehrlich in 2002 is very important. Really LG is a pretty worthless job and it's easy to say picking a certain demographic is more pandering than anything else. Obviously that's the case with Brown. But this is an entirely different ballgame. Steele isn't running as a white Republican's sidekick, he's running on his own and for a very important office.

As I've said before, Cardin's campaign has made some very interesting tactical decisions in this race. And I say interesting, rather than bad, because that cannot be determined until the votes are counted. Personally I think Cardin has made a mistake by making the campaign solely about Bush, with Steele in 2nd.

First of all, Cardin is implicity admitting his own weakess. If his candidacy was compelling, there would be little need for the kind of mass offensives he's launched against Steele via Bush. Cardin is running in a Democrat's dream environment. Dem year, plus in the state of Maryland.

Second of all, I think there is a chance his campaign methods backfire. If Democrats fall short on election day, it will be because they went after Bush and ignored the dynamics of state and local races. Bush already drags down the GOP-- running scare ads on Bush is a poor strategy at the margin, because the WaPo and NYT and CNN and various other outlets attack Bush all the time anyway.

One thing I learned from the only political bet I've ever lost (out of 20 or so)-  2004 Colorado- was not to put much faith in weak candidates. Even if various factors suggest they should do well by party alone, this underestimates the cumulative intelligence of the voting public, which is often weak individually but somewhat more capable in the hundreds of thousands.