Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 23, 2014, 01:29:28 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
| | |-+  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Polls
| | | |-+  Bush up by 5% in North Carolina says Research2000
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Bush up by 5% in North Carolina says Research2000  (Read 3917 times)
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4565


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« on: June 22, 2004, 09:15:55 am »
Ignore

http://www.newsobserver.com/news/story/1358875p-7482121c.html



Mason-Dixon said 7
POS said 6
This one says 5

Bush lead slips from past
Poll shows a tighter race if Kerry picks Edwards

By AMY GARDNER, Staff Writer

If North Carolina elected a president today, President Bush would win -- but not nearly by the margin this Republican-friendly state handed him four years ago, according to a new statewide poll.
In the poll, 47 percent of likely voters chose Bush, a Republican, while 42 percent selected Sen. John Kerry, a Democrat.

The divide would narrow further if Kerry selects Sen. John Edwards as his running mate, according to the survey, conducted June 13-16 for a partnership of The News & Observer, WRAL-TV and WUNC radio.

"Kerry doesn't have to win North Carolina to win the presidency. Everybody knows that. Bush knows that," said Del Ali of Research 2000, the Maryland polling firm that conducted the survey. "But by taking Edwards on the ticket, it really does force Bush to spend time in an area that, frankly, he can't afford to spend time in."
HOW POLL WAS DONE

Republicans and Democrats alike agreed Monday that the numbers are unusually close for North Carolina, which hasn't voted for a Democrat for president since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Four years ago, Bush beat Democrat Al Gore 56 percent to 43 percent.

Where the partisans differed, however, was in what the numbers mean for November.

Democrats believe the unpopularity of the war in Iraq, coupled with the state's continuing economic struggles, turned North Carolina into a battleground state.

"Against an incumbent president in a state that has gone for Republicans every year since 1980, the fact that John Kerry is within five points even without John Edwards on the ticket tells me it's going to be a competitive race," said Ed Turlington of Raleigh, a Democrat and Edwards associate.

While some Republicans agree that Bush's popularity is lagging, they do not think that will remain so through the year. The economy is improving, they say, and they are sure that the scheduled handoff of power in Iraq on June 30 will improve U.S. opinion of events there.

"All the bad publicity in the last two months has certainly had an effect on his popularity," said Jim Culbertson, state finance chairman of the Bush campaign. "But I think this is probably going to be the absolute low point of the campaign."

Particularly noteworthy to Democrats was the fact that Bush's job approval rating has slipped so much in North Carolina -- from 63 percent excellent or good last July to 52 percent today.

Similarly, Bush's vote-getting ability has slid since January, when he was matched separately against three other Democrats -- Edwards, Wesley Clark and Howard Dean -- and never captured less than 53 percent of likely voters' support.

The new poll hints at some of the reasons why:

* On the economy, 56 percent of those polled do not think Bush has done enough to protect furniture, textile and other manufacturing industries from foreign trade.

* On the war in Iraq, 46 percent of those polled approve of Bush's leadership there while 44 percent disapprove. This is a remarkably narrow divide given this state's long-standing support for the military.

The poll reflects interviews with 600 likely voters over four days, and carries a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

"I think what you're seeing in the results is a lack of confidence or at least a softness in the confidence that people have in Bush's ability to govern and lead the country," said Tom Hendrickson, a Democratic fund-raiser from Raleigh.

One wild card that could change presidential results in this state is Ralph Nader, the Green Party nominee in 2000.

According to the poll, the numbers change as follows with Nader on the ballot: Bush 46 percent, Kerry 40 percent and Nader 4 percent.

The Research 2000 North Carolina Poll was conducted for The News & Observer, WRAL-TV and WUNC radio from June 13 through 16. Six hundred residents statewide who vote regularly in elections were interviewed by telephone. Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was used to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration by county.

The margin of sampling error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the true figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as respondents of a particular political party or from a specific region.


« Last Edit: June 22, 2004, 11:18:22 am by The Vorlon »Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35357
United States
View Profile
« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2004, 10:30:18 am »
Ignore

Damn him if he doesn't go with Edwards!
Logged
Lunar
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30619
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile
« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2004, 10:51:27 am »
Ignore

At this point, Edwards is the only choice.  There are top Edwards people all through Kerry's organization.  Edwards is the only real candidate that will HELP Kerry, rather than not hurt him.

Edwards isn't a Dean or a Feingold, he won't turn off the moderates
Edwards isn't a Bayh or a Gephardt, we won't turn off the commies
He has charisma
There is a chance that he could actually carry his state.  If the chance succeeds, those 14 EVS are huge
Logged

this is real
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35357
United States
View Profile
« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2004, 10:52:34 am »
Ignore

15 EV's
Logged
Lunar
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30619
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile
« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2004, 10:53:45 am »
Ignore

My mistake, 14 was the 2000 number.  I was looking at that map recently.

Anyway, if he can get North Carolina and hold Pennsylvania it's in the bag electorally.  Again, it's only a chance, but one worth taking.
« Last Edit: June 22, 2004, 10:55:09 am by Lunar »Logged

this is real
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35357
United States
View Profile
« Reply #5 on: June 22, 2004, 10:55:50 am »
Ignore

NC will turn to 'light blue' and WV to 'light red' if Edwards is picked Smiley
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31304
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2004, 10:56:31 am »
Ignore

NC will turn to 'light blue' and WV to 'light red' if Edwards is picked Smiley


Could we be looking at another 1960 dogfight redux?
Logged
khirkhib
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 968


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2004, 10:57:26 am »
Ignore

And I think you'll have to paint Virginia light blue as well.
Logged
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35357
United States
View Profile
« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2004, 10:59:41 am »
Ignore

And I think you'll have to paint Virginia light blue as well.

Hard to say.  Lets say Edwards gives Kerry a 2% boost in VA, that could bring it down to five...who knows.
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31304
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2004, 10:59:56 am »
Ignore

And I think you'll have to paint Virginia light blue as well.

This Virginia would disagree. Cheesy
Logged
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35357
United States
View Profile
« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2004, 11:00:36 am »
Ignore

Could we be looking at another 1960 dogfight redux?

No, Kerry won't win 6 southern states.  But he might win one, and that tips the balance a bit.
Logged
Lunar
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30619
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile
« Reply #11 on: June 22, 2004, 11:00:56 am »
Ignore

And I think you'll have to paint Virginia light blue as well.

No one cares about Virginia.  If they switch it'll be after the election is already won (electorally).
Logged

this is real
??????????
StatesRights
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31304
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: June 22, 2004, 11:02:00 am »
Ignore

Could we be looking at another 1960 dogfight redux?

No, Kerry won't win 6 southern states.  But he might win one, and that tips the balance a bit.

Not so much that. I mean the closeness of the election and the general hardcore campaigning done. Another nailbiter.
Logged
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35357
United States
View Profile
« Reply #13 on: June 22, 2004, 11:04:58 am »
Ignore

Not so much that. I mean the closeness of the election and the general hardcore campaigning done. Another nailbiter.

I think Bush will win big because he will either catch or "catch" Bin Laden by November.
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31304
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

View Profile
« Reply #14 on: June 22, 2004, 11:06:12 am »
Ignore

Not so much that. I mean the closeness of the election and the general hardcore campaigning done. Another nailbiter.

I think Bush will win big because he will either catch or "catch" Bin Laden by November.

I can see all those reds on your map turning blue if that happened. Bin Laden will be captured soon I believe.
Logged
millwx
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 402


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: June 22, 2004, 11:06:24 am »
Ignore

There is a chance that he could actually carry his state.  If the chance succeeds, those 14 EVS are huge
Agreed.  Saw an article yesterday saying it was down to Gephardt and Vilsack.  That'd be foolish of Kerry.  I honestly still feel that even with Edwards, Kerry won't take NC.  Edwards has not been that popular even in NC (though this Research2000 poll shows him fairly popular).  But it will draw the race to within a few percent and force Bush to spend a LOT of money (15 EVs is nothing to sneeze at) in a state he would have otherwise ignored.

Edwards could also have enough draw in some surrounding states to make Bush spend money there as well.  I, personally, don't like Edwards.  I think his supposed "shine" is that of an ambulance chasing sleeze-ball lawyer Smiley  Nonetheless, from an election standpoint, he's Kerry's best bet.  Bush can't afford to spend time and money in NC - and possibly surrounding states.  **IF** this election is close, that extra time/money not spent in some other "true" battlegrounds could really cost him.  Kerry really needs to take Edwards.
Logged

Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35357
United States
View Profile
« Reply #16 on: June 22, 2004, 11:08:38 am »
Ignore

I can see all those reds on your map turning blue if that happened. Bin Laden will be captured soon I believe.

My predicton map has Bush winning 394-144, with Bush catching or "catching" bin Laden in early October.
Logged
Lunar
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30619
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile
« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2004, 11:09:57 am »
Ignore

The best time to catch Laden is right before the Democratic convention.
Logged

this is real
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35357
United States
View Profile
« Reply #18 on: June 22, 2004, 11:11:09 am »
Ignore

The best time to catch Laden is right before the Democratic convention.

That would be good, I think he will do it right before one of the debates though.
Logged
khirkhib
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 968


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: June 22, 2004, 11:17:58 am »
Ignore

Quote
No, Kerry won't win 6 southern states.  But he might win one, and that tips the balance a bit.

I think that the south is important and that Kerry should campaign in at least 6 southern states.  (not counting Florida)
Kerry should communicate his message to North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Lousiana, Arkansas, Tenessee and Georgia.  Send the message to those states that the Democratic party at the national level is NOT anti-southern and that their votes are valued to the ticket.  I think those gestures are what will create some surprising effects on Nov 2nd and I think that showing that Kerry wants to bring everybody into the tent will firm up his lead in the Midwest.  Bush has Kerry on the defence and polls keep jumping as to what states the ticket can't lose  Penn, New Jersey, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Washington, Oregon, and New Mexico.  The best defence is a good offence - I just think it will work better for Kerry in the election than it is working for Bush in the war on terror.
Logged
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35357
United States
View Profile
« Reply #20 on: June 22, 2004, 11:20:14 am »
Ignore

Kerry has absolutely no shot in GA and TN.

VA and LA are longshots.

NC and AR could possibly be in play with Edwards on the ticket.
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31304
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

View Profile
« Reply #21 on: June 22, 2004, 11:21:43 am »
Ignore

Quote
No, Kerry won't win 6 southern states.  But he might win one, and that tips the balance a bit.

I think that the south is important and that Kerry should campaign in at least 6 southern states.  (not counting Florida)
Kerry should communicate his message to North Carolina, Virginia, Missouri, Lousiana, Arkansas, Tenessee and Georgia.  Send the message to those states that the Democratic party at the national level is NOT anti-southern and that their votes are valued to the ticket.  I think those gestures are what will create some surprising effects on Nov 2nd and I think that showing that Kerry wants to bring everybody into the tent will firm up his lead in the Midwest.  Bush has Kerry on the defence and polls keep jumping as to what states the ticket can't lose  Penn, New Jersey, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Washington, Oregon, and New Mexico.  The best defence is a good offence - I just think it will work better for Kerry in the election than it is working for Bush in the war on terror.

So basically you are saying Kerry should come south and lie to us? lol
Logged
Comrade Sibboleth
Realpolitik
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 55483
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #22 on: June 22, 2004, 01:13:27 pm »
Ignore

NC is looking *very* interesting... I'd love to see a county map Smiley
Logged



Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20510


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« Reply #23 on: June 22, 2004, 05:19:49 pm »
Ignore

someone remind me, how did edwards do in the virginia primary?

26% +winning 8 counties + losing every congressional district.

impressive.  </sarcasm>
« Last Edit: June 22, 2004, 05:27:32 pm by WalterMitty »Logged


You can be our next waltermitty, although perhaps a slightly better-informed version, and without the fetish for really old women. 
I can cook scrambled eggs and bacon or fry a hamburger on the George Foreman, or, with assistance, fix spaghetti.
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines