Questions for Vorlon

[AuH2O]

Vorlon (nice name btw, I'm a huge B5 fan)- just saw your latest map, and there are a few things I was wondering:

- Why no love for Bush in the Upper Midwest? Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 by about .5%, but only lost Wisconsin by .2%. If he wins the popular vote, which seems quite likely, he should take Wisconsin- assuming Nader is on the ballot.

Minnesota was slightly less friendly to Bush, even though Nader did better there than with the cheeseheads. But I think there is a trend towards the GOP here... looking back to 1988, the state is roughly +5% more friendly to the GOP.

Michigan I agree goes Kerry at this point, but not by a ton.

- Likewise, I'm puzzled by your VA and NC margins for Bush. He won both handily, now faces a non-Southerner, and should win the popular vote. Virginia at the very least should be dark blue, no?

- Do you think the polls showing New Jersey closer than expected are at all for real? It's gone back and forth there, and I normally don't put too much stock in polls this far out, but it struck me as odd..

[The Vorlon]

- Why no love for Bush in the Upper Midwest? Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 by about .5%, but only lost Wisconsin by .2%. If he wins the popular vote, which seems quite likely, he should take Wisconsin- assuming Nader is on the ballot.

It's the Economy Stupid....

Minnesota was slightly less friendly to Bush, even though Nader did better there than with the cheeseheads. But I think there is a trend towards the GOP here... looking back to 1988, the state is roughly +5% more friendly to the GOP.

Actually, trending semi-hard GOP.  Half of state population now lives in the GOP-Friendly 4 counties surrounding Minni/St. Paul.  

GOP organization on the ground has gone from utterly brain dead to maybe a B+ in the last 8 years.

Even without Nader if Bush wins the Popular vote by say 2.5% he has a 50/50 shot in Minnesota

Michigan I agree goes Kerry at this point, but not by a ton.

Polls say it is close, turnout models say Kerry should be a lot farther ahead than he is....  This far out I trust the models more than the polls

I expect this state will likely give Kerry a good size "convention bounce"

- Likewise, I'm puzzled by your VA and NC margins for Bush. He won both handily, now faces a non-Southerner, and should win the popular vote. Virginia at the very least should be dark blue, no?

Lots of "PMCs" in these two states (also Arkansas) - (Precarious Middle Class) - Iraq war is bleeding Bush with these folks. Worries about de-industrialization, out sourcing. Workin class "good citizen" vote is bleeding on Bush down here.

BTW - If you're (given your name, a decent bet I think) a republican, pray that Kerry DOES pick Edwards - the GOP will tear him apart on a few issues that play really well down in NC and Virginia.

The 4-6% gaps I show in North Carolina and Virginia avre very cautious estimates - I actually have them in the 8% ish range, just needed to show them as being "states of interest" and my grid cuts off at 6%

- Do you think the polls showing New Jersey closer than expected are at all for real? It's gone back and forth there, and I normally don't put too much stock in polls this far out, but it struck me as odd.

Is 8-10% - close? - I don't think so.

Jersey goes for Kerry.  Take it to the bank.

[ilikeverin]

Actually, trending semi-hard GOP.  Half of state population now lives in the GOP-Friendly 4 counties surrounding Minni/St. Paul.  

Well, you should know that those are outer suburbs and exurbs.  And you all know what happens to them as they 'grow up'.

*ahem*

[The Vorlon]

Actually, trending semi-hard GOP.  Half of state population now lives in the GOP-Friendly 4 counties surrounding Minni/St. Paul.  

Well, you should know that those are outer suburbs and exurbs.  And you all know what happens to them as they 'grow up'.

*ahem*

Ya, but you will be a moderate DLC kinda democrat, not the scary Tax & spend Kind - so I am not toooo afraid... but still a little

[ilikeverin]

Actually, trending semi-hard GOP.  Half of state population now lives in the GOP-Friendly 4 counties surrounding Minni/St. Paul.  

Well, you should know that those are outer suburbs and exurbs.  And you all know what happens to them as they 'grow up'.

*ahem*

Ya, but you will be a moderate DLC kinda democrat, not the scary Tax & spend Kind - so I am not toooo afraid... but still a little

I guess... even though I'm pretty darn socially liberal

So are you predicting MN will become a 'moderate DLC kinda' Democratic state?

[AuH2O]

I think MN will be straight up Republican by 2020...

[© tweed]

I think MN will be straight up Republican by 2020...

Agreed.

[??????????]

I think MN will be straight up Republican by 2020...

Agreed.

What about states between Washington and Minnesota and south to about Oklahoma? Will they ever go Democrat?

[© tweed]

What about states between Washington and Minnesota and south to about Oklahoma? Will they ever go Democrat?

The southwest will be solid Dem.

[??????????]

What about states between Washington and Minnesota and south to about Oklahoma? Will they ever go Democrat?

The southwest will be solid Dem.

I am talking about those dark blue states in the middle of your map there.

[platypeanArchcow]

What about states between Washington and Minnesota and south to about Oklahoma? Will they ever go Democrat?

The southwest will be solid Dem.

I am talking about those dark blue states in the middle of your map there.

Colorado, quite likely.

[AuH2O]

No, they won't. Even the Southwest could be more complicated than meets the eye... might be ripe for a regional 3rd party, or at least an occasional regional candidate.

[??????????]

What is the future of say NE, KS, SD, ND, MT, UT, ID, WY in future years? Any of these trend dem?

[AuH2O]

That's what Archcow was asking. And I think Vorlon and Tweed will concur the answer is a resounding 'no'... not so long as the parties retain their current form.

[??????????]

This is how I believe we will look in another 20 years. Gray would be tossups.

[© tweed]

NY?  Vt? RI?

[??????????]

NY?  Vt? RI?

I believe they will all be competitive in 30 years.

[© tweed]

NY?  Vt? RI?

I believe they will all be competitive in 30 years.

You only have 83 Dem EV's.