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Author Topic: ID: Mason Dixon - Otter (R) and Brady (D) as well as Sali (R) and Grant (D) tied  (Read 1425 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 29, 2006, 07:19:41 am »
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http://www.idahostatesman.com/273/story/57847.html

"In the governor's race, Republican U.S. Rep. Butch Otter leads Democratic newspaper owner Jerry Brady by a single percentage point. Republican state Rep. Bill Sali has a 2 percentage point lead over Democratic businessman Larry Grant for the congressional seat that runs from West Boise north to Canada. "

The survey of 625 likely voters was conducted for the Idaho Statesman and Today's 6, the local ABC affiliate. The margin of error statewide is plus or minus 4 percentage points; in the 1st District that rises to 6 percentage points. Likely voters were polled last week by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research of Washington, D.C.
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2006, 07:23:54 am »
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Wow.  Idaho is the last place I'd ever have expected a Democratic surge.

I guess that poll posted in that other topic was indeed correct.
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2006, 09:38:57 am »
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Wow.....just wow. Another Governorhship for the GOP to defend.
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2006, 09:40:46 am »
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To be perfectly honest, does anybody care who wins the Idaho governor race (outside of boosting someone's Senate resume)?
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2006, 09:56:39 am »
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This is one poll, this is ID, Otter is no danger Sali a little

If Idahoians see this poll, they will freak and Otter will win by 20
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2006, 10:37:57 am »
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This is one poll, this is ID, Otter is no danger Sali a little

If Idahoians see this poll, they will freak and Otter will win by 20
Yeah ok.
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2006, 11:43:26 am »
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This is one poll, this is ID, Otter is no danger Sali a little

If Idahoians see this poll, they will freak and Otter will win by 20
Yeah ok.

I could say this is an outlier, but there aren't a lot of polls to base it on
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2006, 11:55:22 am »
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Wow, that  is truly surprising. I'd like to see more polls, but I guess it's time to change the prediction here (even though this could be the New Jersey of this year...)
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2006, 12:01:54 pm »
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Wow, that  is truly surprising. I'd like to see more polls, but I guess it's time to change the prediction here (even though this could be the New Jersey of this year...)

Your wording is a tad confusing, but if your implying Kean Jr. will win, you will not be disappointed
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2006, 12:03:35 pm »
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No one picked this as the race that comes from nowhere in that thread a few weeks back
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2006, 12:40:11 pm »
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Wow, that  is truly surprising. I'd like to see more polls, but I guess it's time to change the prediction here (even though this could be the New Jersey of this year...)

Your wording is a tad confusing, but if your implying Kean Jr. will win, you will not be disappointed

I was referring to New Jersey in 2004 (though I guess Hawaii is more accurate come to think of it). Late in the campaign, polls were coming out showing ties, etc. That turned out to be mostly nonsense. But a Mason-Dixon will make me move this race to tossup.
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2006, 01:11:26 pm »
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Well well well. It seems that Dem internal wasn't too far off after all. I'm glad M-D was commissioned to poll these races.

To be perfectly honest, does anybody care who wins the Idaho governor race (outside of boosting someone's Senate resume)?

Um....yes. Lots of people care. There are many, many reasons why picking up the Governorship of even a sparsley populated state like Idaho would be good for the Dem party, besides that it may eventaully lead to the pickup of a Senate seat.

This is one poll, this is ID, Otter is no danger Sali a little

If Idahoians see this poll, they will freak and Otter will win by 20

- Other polls have confirmed this trend towards Brady, and this is M-D, not a D internal.
- Otter is in danger.
- Sali I would say is in even more danger than Otter.
- Your logic makes no sense as usual- if it did, states like WY, KS, OK and MT would not have Dem governors. Obviously the residents of these states and Idaho don't liken the prospect of having a Democratic Governor to the apocalypse as you do.
- You are delusional.
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I'm still going out on a limb here and predicting that Tom Vilsack will eventually become the Dem nominee. 

The others--Edwards, Hillary, and Obama, have peaked WAY too early

THE BUCKS ARE GOING TO THE FINAL FOUR!!!

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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2006, 01:38:51 pm »
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Well well well. It seems that Dem internal wasn't too far off after all. I'm glad M-D was commissioned to poll these races.

To be perfectly honest, does anybody care who wins the Idaho governor race (outside of boosting someone's Senate resume)?

Um....yes. Lots of people care. There are many, many reasons why picking up the Governorship of even a sparsley populated state like Idaho would be good for the Dem party, besides that it may eventaully lead to the pickup of a Senate seat.

This is one poll, this is ID, Otter is no danger Sali a little

If Idahoians see this poll, they will freak and Otter will win by 20

- Other polls have confirmed this trend towards Brady, and this is M-D, not a D internal.
- Otter is in danger.
- Sali I would say is in even more danger than Otter.
- Your logic makes no sense as usual- if it did, states like WY, KS, OK and MT would not have Dem governors. Obviously the residents of these states and Idaho don't liken the prospect of having a Democratic Governor to the apocalypse as you do.
- You are delusional.

While DWTL is delusional it would be fair to point out that Idaho is one of the most Republican states in the country, to the point that the Democratic party there is pretty much a joke (kind of like the GOP in, say, Massachusetts). Like that example shows this doesn't make it impossible for the Democrats to win the Governorship, but it would be harder than in states like Oklahoma or Montana.
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2006, 02:16:32 pm »
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DWTL is delusional

I used to like you and think you were level-headed, but you have become another puppet of the left-wing agenda
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2006, 04:37:01 pm »
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DWTL is delusional

I used to like you and think you were level-headed, but you have become another puppet of the left-wing agenda

Lol...just because I'm not a Democratic hack doesn't mean that I'm a Republican one either. Tongue

Like most hacks your predictions are heavily biased. Delusional might be a strong word, but I went with it in this case. I don't think it calls for invectives like "puppet of the left-wing agenda"...
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2006, 04:50:58 pm »
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Wow!

If Brady wins (and I don't think he will), it will be the upset of the century. He did very well in 2002, carrying not only Moscow and the resort towns, but Pocatello and Boise. He'll hold Otter to less than 60 percent, imo.

I'm also interested in the Lt. Governor race. Former 1st District Congressman Larry LaRocco is the Democratic nominee, and he should do well. And, of course, there is Grant vs. Sali. A Grant win wouldn't surprise me at this point.

You know the GOP is in major trouble when Idaho and NE-3 are competitive.
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2006, 05:45:51 pm »
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I'm speechless.  I totally have egg on my face.

DWTL: The last two polls have been GOP +1 and Dem +2.  This isn't just one poll.
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2006, 06:26:14 pm »
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Well well well. It seems that Dem internal wasn't too far off after all. I'm glad M-D was commissioned to poll these races.

To be perfectly honest, does anybody care who wins the Idaho governor race (outside of boosting someone's Senate resume)?

Um....yes. Lots of people care. There are many, many reasons why picking up the Governorship of even a sparsley populated state like Idaho would be good for the Dem party, besides that it may eventaully lead to the pickup of a Senate seat.

This is one poll, this is ID, Otter is no danger Sali a little

If Idahoians see this poll, they will freak and Otter will win by 20

- Other polls have confirmed this trend towards Brady, and this is M-D, not a D internal.
- Otter is in danger.
- Sali I would say is in even more danger than Otter.
- Your logic makes no sense as usual- if it did, states like WY, KS, OK and MT would not have Dem governors. Obviously the residents of these states and Idaho don't liken the prospect of having a Democratic Governor to the apocalypse as you do.
- You are delusional.

While DWTL is delusional it would be fair to point out that Idaho is one of the most Republican states in the country, to the point that the Democratic party there is pretty much a joke (kind of like the GOP in, say, Massachusetts). Like that example shows this doesn't make it impossible for the Democrats to win the Governorship, but it would be harder than in states like Oklahoma or Montana.

Fair enough. But I would point out that the 2004 Presidential results in WY and ID were almost exactly the same (ID went 69-30 for Bush, WY went 68-29 for Bush, so they are arguably both just about the same shade of red) and the Dem governor is about to reelected in WY - by a landslide no less. This disproves Down's argument that a Dem cannot be elected in Idaho b/c the residents would rally to prevent such a disaster from ocurring. Like I mentioned already, Freudenthal was elected in an equally red state, and he did it in 2002 (a strong Republican year) no less, so Brady definitely has at least as good of a shot, being that 2006 is a Dem year.
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I'm still going out on a limb here and predicting that Tom Vilsack will eventually become the Dem nominee. 

The others--Edwards, Hillary, and Obama, have peaked WAY too early

THE BUCKS ARE GOING TO THE FINAL FOUR!!!

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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2006, 06:28:24 pm »
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It is hard to imagine, though, Deano, that such a popular, credible Republican as Otter would struggle so much against a newspaper publisher.  I mean, Otter has no real reason to lose other than the current climate.  I'm sure that you're just as surprised by this race as most everyone else.
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2006, 06:49:51 pm »
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I've seen their commercials for the past month and have wondered if this could actually be competitive. The Spokesman Review, a Republican-leaning paper, even endorsed both of the Democrats.

It would be great to see the entire NW corner of the country with Dem governors... Washington, Oregon, Montana, and Wyoming already have them. Comon Idaho! And Alaska while we're at it.
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2006, 06:56:45 pm »
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Well well well. It seems that Dem internal wasn't too far off after all. I'm glad M-D was commissioned to poll these races.

To be perfectly honest, does anybody care who wins the Idaho governor race (outside of boosting someone's Senate resume)?

Um....yes. Lots of people care. There are many, many reasons why picking up the Governorship of even a sparsley populated state like Idaho would be good for the Dem party, besides that it may eventaully lead to the pickup of a Senate seat.

This is one poll, this is ID, Otter is no danger Sali a little

If Idahoians see this poll, they will freak and Otter will win by 20

- Other polls have confirmed this trend towards Brady, and this is M-D, not a D internal.
- Otter is in danger.
- Sali I would say is in even more danger than Otter.
- Your logic makes no sense as usual- if it did, states like WY, KS, OK and MT would not have Dem governors. Obviously the residents of these states and Idaho don't liken the prospect of having a Democratic Governor to the apocalypse as you do.
- You are delusional.

While DWTL is delusional it would be fair to point out that Idaho is one of the most Republican states in the country, to the point that the Democratic party there is pretty much a joke (kind of like the GOP in, say, Massachusetts). Like that example shows this doesn't make it impossible for the Democrats to win the Governorship, but it would be harder than in states like Oklahoma or Montana.

Fair enough. But I would point out that the 2004 Presidential results in WY and ID were almost exactly the same (ID went 69-30 for Bush, WY went 68-29 for Bush, so they are arguably both just about the same shade of red) and the Dem governor is about to reelected in WY - by a landslide no less. This disproves Down's argument that a Dem cannot be elected in Idaho b/c the residents would rally to prevent such a disaster from ocurring. Like I mentioned already, Freudenthal was elected in an equally red state, and he did it in 2002 (a strong Republican year) no less, so Brady definitely has at least as good of a shot, being that 2006 is a Dem year.

The reason Freudenthal won was because the Republican governor was marred w/scandal and he lost the race, Fredudental didn't win.  I don't see any visible problems plaguing Otter.
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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2006, 08:16:12 pm »
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It is hard to imagine, though, Deano, that such a popular, credible Republican as Otter would struggle so much against a newspaper publisher.  I mean, Otter has no real reason to lose other than the current climate.  I'm sure that you're just as surprised by this race as most everyone else.

I should point out that I actually like Otter. If someone put a gun to my head and made me choose one republican gubernatorial candidate this cycle that I wanted to win, I would pick Otter. He's the rare kind of republican that I like - voted against the Gestapo Act, is moderarte, is not a religious zealot, etc.. I was simply pointing out that Down's argument was nothing more than the tired old "State X is too Y to ever elect  Z!" line of reasoning, and therefore it is bunk.

I'm actually not too surprised by this. I started hearing rumors a few weeks ago about this race being a toss-up, and I was shocked then, but not anymore. I even started a whole thread asking why this race had become tight b/c, like yourself, I didn't know of any real reasons why Otter would be struggling.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2006, 08:18:20 pm by Deano963 »Logged

I'm still going out on a limb here and predicting that Tom Vilsack will eventually become the Dem nominee. 

The others--Edwards, Hillary, and Obama, have peaked WAY too early

THE BUCKS ARE GOING TO THE FINAL FOUR!!!

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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2006, 12:34:23 am »
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If Brady wins (and I don't think he will), it will be the upset of the century.

No, that's still Sonny Perdue last time.
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