ID: Mason Dixon - Otter (R) and Brady (D) as well as Sali (R) and Grant (D) tied

[Deano963]

Well well well. It seems that Dem internal wasn't too far off after all. I'm glad M-D was commissioned to poll these races.

To be perfectly honest, does anybody care who wins the Idaho governor race (outside of boosting someone's Senate resume)?

Um....yes. Lots of people care. There are many, many reasons why picking up the Governorship of even a sparsley populated state like Idaho would be good for the Dem party, besides that it may eventaully lead to the pickup of a Senate seat.

This is one poll, this is ID, Otter is no danger Sali a little

If Idahoians see this poll, they will freak and Otter will win by 20

- Other polls have confirmed this trend towards Brady, and this is M-D, not a D internal.
- Otter is in danger.
- Sali I would say is in even more danger than Otter.
- Your logic makes no sense as usual- if it did, states like WY, KS, OK and MT would not have Dem governors. Obviously the residents of these states and Idaho don't liken the prospect of having a Democratic Governor to the apocalypse as you do.
- You are delusional.

[Deano963]

Well well well. It seems that Dem internal wasn't too far off after all. I'm glad M-D was commissioned to poll these races.

To be perfectly honest, does anybody care who wins the Idaho governor race (outside of boosting someone's Senate resume)?

Um....yes. Lots of people care. There are many, many reasons why picking up the Governorship of even a sparsley populated state like Idaho would be good for the Dem party, besides that it may eventaully lead to the pickup of a Senate seat.

This is one poll, this is ID, Otter is no danger Sali a little

If Idahoians see this poll, they will freak and Otter will win by 20

- Other polls have confirmed this trend towards Brady, and this is M-D, not a D internal.
- Otter is in danger.
- Sali I would say is in even more danger than Otter.
- Your logic makes no sense as usual- if it did, states like WY, KS, OK and MT would not have Dem governors. Obviously the residents of these states and Idaho don't liken the prospect of having a Democratic Governor to the apocalypse as you do.
- You are delusional.

While DWTL is delusional it would be fair to point out that Idaho is one of the most Republican states in the country, to the point that the Democratic party there is pretty much a joke (kind of like the GOP in, say, Massachusetts). Like that example shows this doesn't make it impossible for the Democrats to win the Governorship, but it would be harder than in states like Oklahoma or Montana.

Fair enough. But I would point out that the 2004 Presidential results in WY and ID were almost exactly the same (ID went 69-30 for Bush, WY went 68-29 for Bush, so they are arguably both just about the same shade of red) and the Dem governor is about to reelected in WY - by a landslide no less. This disproves Down's argument that a Dem cannot be elected in Idaho b/c the residents would rally to prevent such a disaster from ocurring. Like I mentioned already, Freudenthal was elected in an equally red state, and he did it in 2002 (a strong Republican year) no less, so Brady definitely has at least as good of a shot, being that 2006 is a Dem year.

[Deano963]

It is hard to imagine, though, Deano, that such a popular, credible Republican as Otter would struggle so much against a newspaper publisher.  I mean, Otter has no real reason to lose other than the current climate.  I'm sure that you're just as surprised by this race as most everyone else.

I should point out that I actually like Otter. If someone put a gun to my head and made me choose one republican gubernatorial candidate this cycle that I wanted to win, I would pick Otter. He's the rare kind of republican that I like - voted against the Gestapo Act, is moderarte, is not a religious zealot, etc.. I was simply pointing out that Down's argument was nothing more than the tired old "State X is too Y to ever elect  Z!" line of reasoning, and therefore it is bunk.

I'm actually not too surprised by this. I started hearing rumors a few weeks ago about this race being a toss-up, and I was shocked then, but not anymore. I even started a whole thread asking why this race had become tight b/c, like yourself, I didn't know of any real reasons why Otter would be struggling.