Down's New Predictions

[DownWithTheLeft]

Here's my new ratings (I have learned polls mean nothing)

D 15+: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NY, NM, WV, WI
D >5<15: MI, MN, ND, WA, NE
D<5: OH, RI
R<5: NJ, MD, TN, PA, MT, MO, VA
R>5<15: AZ, NV
R>15: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

I: CT, VT

House Ratings:

D Pickup: AZ-8, FL-16, IN-2, IN-8, IN-9, IO-1, NY-24, NC-11, OH-18, PA-7, PA-10, TX-22, WI-8, VT-AL
R Pickup: IL-8

Senate: 55 R, 44 D, 1 IND
House:  220 R, 215 D

[adam]

So in 8 days, Rick Santorum is supposed to cover roughly 20 points of ground? Love the optimism...but such delusion is not healthy. Also, Brown in Ohio by less than 5? The GOP has just pulled funding from the DeWine campaign and the latest poll (though it's questionable) shows Brown up by 20!

[Ben.]

I'd still say OH will be closer than many people might think, then again the idea of Santorum winning in PA looks fairly remote now... on top of that MT is being writen off by the RSCC, at the same time MO, TN, VA, NJ and MD are way, way too close to call and neither party will sweep all of them and in the current climate the GOP sure wont.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'd admit the media's optimism is too high, but this prediction is too pestimistic, I think the Dems will pick up 4 seats in the Senate for sure and win 12-18 seats in the House.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've heard the RNC has pretty much given as lost 7-10 seats.

Overall - I'm sticking with my predictions
 
The House - D - 222 R- 213
The Senate - D- 49 R - 49 I -2

[Keystone Phil]

So in 8 days, Rick Santorum is supposed to cover roughly 20 points of ground? Love the optimism...but such delusion is not healthy.

I'm sorry but do you know anything about what's going on on the ground? Again, do you know anything about his record in these types of races? It's not delusional.

[DarthKosh]

So in 8 days, Rick Santorum is supposed to cover roughly 20 points of ground? Love the optimism...but such delusion is not healthy.

I'm sorry but do you know anything about what's going on on the ground? Again, do you know anything about his record in these types of races? It's not delusional.

Yes it is.  THis year he is facing his strongest challenger in a horrible year for Reps.

[Kevin]

So in 8 days, Rick Santorum is supposed to cover roughly 20 points of ground? Love the optimism...but such delusion is not healthy.

I'm sorry but do you know anything about what's going on on the ground? Again, do you know anything about his record in these types of races? It's not delusional.

Santorums gone, he has been gone for nearly a year now!

[Keystone Phil]

So in 8 days, Rick Santorum is supposed to cover roughly 20 points of ground? Love the optimism...but such delusion is not healthy.

I'm sorry but do you know anything about what's going on on the ground? Again, do you know anything about his record in these types of races? It's not delusional.

Yes it is.  THis year he is facing his strongest challenger in a horrible year for Reps.

But how strong is Casey really? Whenever the vote rolls around, Casey ends up doing worse than expected. Is he strong (because of his name)? Yes. But let's not forget the weaknesses.

By the way, 1992 was a horrible year for the GOP and Santorum broke 60% in a totally gerrymandered new district which favored the Dems.

So in 8 days, Rick Santorum is supposed to cover roughly 20 points of ground? Love the optimism...but such delusion is not healthy.

I'm sorry but do you know anything about what's going on on the ground? Again, do you know anything about his record in these types of races? It's not delusional.

Santorums gone, he has been gone for nearly a year now!

I won't respond with something nasty because I know you have been trying hard just to fit in with the "in" crowd here. I'm sorry for you, pal.

[Kevin]

So in 8 days, Rick Santorum is supposed to cover roughly 20 points of ground? Love the optimism...but such delusion is not healthy.

I'm sorry but do you know anything about what's going on on the ground? Again, do you know anything about his record in these types of races? It's not delusional.

Yes it is.  THis year he is facing his strongest challenger in a horrible year for Reps.

But how strong is Casey really? Whenever the vote rolls around, Casey ends up doing worse than expected. Is he strong (because of his name)? Yes. But let's not forget the weaknesses.

By the way, 1992 was a horrible year for the GOP and Santorum broke 60% in a totally gerrymandered new district which favored the Dems.

So in 8 days, Rick Santorum is supposed to cover roughly 20 points of ground? Love the optimism...but such delusion is not healthy.

I'm sorry but do you know anything about what's going on on the ground? Again, do you know anything about his record in these types of races? It's not delusional.

Santorums gone, he has been gone for nearly a year now!

I won't respond with something nasty because I know you have been trying hard just to fit in with the "in" crowd here. I'm sorry for you, pal.

No I'm just saying what I belive, I wish Santorum could win this race but he isn't.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Your faith in Santorum is admirable (if he wins, I'll be first to admit I was wrong... once I come around that is) - but I wonder if you are prepared should he lose.

[Keystone Phil]

Your faith in Santorum is admirable (if he wins, I'll be first to admit I was wrong... once I come around that is) - but I wonder if you are prepared should he lose.

When Casey first got in the race, I predicted he'd win by six points. I will be shocked if he loses only because it will be weird not seeing him there.

[DarthKosh]

So in 8 days, Rick Santorum is supposed to cover roughly 20 points of ground? Love the optimism...but such delusion is not healthy.

I'm sorry but do you know anything about what's going on on the ground? Again, do you know anything about his record in these types of races? It's not delusional.

Yes it is.  THis year he is facing his strongest challenger in a horrible year for Reps.

But how strong is Casey really? Whenever the vote rolls around, Casey ends up doing worse than expected. Is he strong (because of his name)? Yes. But let's not forget the weaknesses.

By the way, 1992 was a horrible year for the GOP and Santorum broke 60% in a totally gerrymandered new district which favored the Dems.

So in 8 days, Rick Santorum is supposed to cover roughly 20 points of ground? Love the optimism...but such delusion is not healthy.

I'm sorry but do you know anything about what's going on on the ground? Again, do you know anything about his record in these types of races? It's not delusional.

Santorums gone, he has been gone for nearly a year now!

I won't respond with something nasty because I know you have been trying hard just to fit in with the "in" crowd here. I'm sorry for you, pal.

The only race he ever lost was against Rendell.  What you are forgeting is that Santorum is hugely unpopular and has never even com close to being in the lead of any poll.

[Keystone Phil]

The only race he ever lost was against Rendell.

Ever think that that was his only real competitive race?

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Santorum's unpopularity is overrated. People see things on TV and hear them on the radio and think they have to dislike the man. Many don't want to shout their support for Santorum from the rooftops because they will be labeled as nut jobs. I strongly believe that there is a silent majority out there for him.

And, again for uninformed people like yourself, not coming close to a lead in a poll doesn't translate into an automatic loss.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

By the way, 1992 was a horrible year for the GOP and Santorum broke 60% in a totally gerrymandered new district which favored the Dems.

LOL, in 1992 the GOP picked up House seats!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections%2C_1992

And unless you can provide any polls showing he was down double digits before election day and still won, you don't have a point at all.

[Keystone Phil]

By the way, 1992 was a horrible year for the GOP and Santorum broke 60% in a totally gerrymandered new district which favored the Dems.

LOL, in 1992 the GOP picked up House seats!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections%2C_1992

And unless you can provide any polls showing he was down double digits before election day and still won, you don't have a point at all.

Because they picked up House seats that means it wasn't a tough year for them?

I don't need to provide polls to prove he was down double digits. He was gerrymandered into an insanely Dem district and won with over 60%. In 1990, he beat a popular incumbent of seven terms, I believe. He was never supposed to win and he did. In fact, he was regarded as such a longshot joke in 1990 that the national Republicans didn't give him a dime.

Keep underestimating him, dumbass.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

By the way, 1992 was a horrible year for the GOP and Santorum broke 60% in a totally gerrymandered new district which favored the Dems.

LOL, in 1992 the GOP picked up House seats!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections%2C_1992

And unless you can provide any polls showing he was down double digits before election day and still won, you don't have a point at all.

Because they picked up House seats that means it wasn't a tough year for them?

In many areas it was. However, it most certainly was not in the House.

I don't need to provide polls to prove he was down double digits. He was gerrymandered into an insanely Dem district and won with over 60%. In 1990, he beat a popular incumbent of seven terms, I believe. He was never supposed to win and he did. In fact, he was regarded as such a longshot joke in 1990 that the national Republicans didn't give him a dime.

The question is though: Was he down double digits only a week before the election?

Keep underestimating him, dumbass.

Let me just ask you this: Do you think it's possible for Santorum to lose. Anyone thinking Santorum will win must think he can not lose under ANY CIRCUMSTANCES WHATSOEVER.

I mean, let's look at the facts:

-He's down double digits
-He has the lowest approval ratings of any Senator in the country
-He's facing the best candidate the Democrats could bring up
-It's a bad year for the GOP nationwide
-A very popular Democratic governor is also running and will win reelection in a landslide

That sounds like a worse case scenario to me. Therefore, if anyone honestly thinks Santorum will win now, they must believe he has some sort of magic powers that make it absolutely impossible for him to ever lose an election, no matter what.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I never said he couldn't lose, I just believe he will once again defy the odds

[Keystone Phil]

Let me just ask you this: Do you think it's possible for Santorum to lose. Anyone thinking Santorum will win must think he can not lose under ANY CIRCUMSTANCES WHATSOEVER.

Uh, it is absolutely possible that he can lose. In fact, I can say that it is likely, at this point, that he'll lose but he will still end up winning. To say that believing Santorum will win means he cannot, under any circumstances, lose shows very poor logic.

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Again, that could be a bad thing. Dems are worried that polls showing an easy Dem win in both races will allow some to be lazy and end up not voting.

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No, it's just that he has beaten the odds before. We could look at the facts from his 1990 race:

- Unknown
- Facing off against a popular seven term incumbent Dem
- Bad year for GOP nationwide
- A very popular Governor (a Casey) re-elected in a landslide

[Conan]

And he has the guts to call me a hack. HAHA . Even I dont think the impossible is possible.

[Keystone Phil]

And he has the guts to call me a hack. HAHA . Even I dont think the impossible is possible.

If you're talking about me, please refute everything I posted. Please address every point about Santorum's 1990 and 1992 campaigns.

[Smash255]

And he has the guts to call me a hack. HAHA . Even I dont think the impossible is possible.

If you're talking about me, please refute everything I posted. Please address every point about Santorum's 1990 and 1992 campaigns.

That was fourteen and sixteen years ago.  Just because Santorum was able to make a come back in a house race over a decade a go doesn't mean he will be able to do the same now, in a Senate race in a very bad GOP year in which he is a very close ally of a very unpopular President.  He is done.

[Keystone Phil]

And he has the guts to call me a hack. HAHA . Even I dont think the impossible is possible.

If you're talking about me, please refute everything I posted. Please address every point about Santorum's 1990 and 1992 campaigns.

That was fourteen and sixteen years ago.  Just because Santorum was able to make a come back in a house race over a decade a go doesn't mean he will be able to do the same now, in a Senate race in a very bad GOP year in which he is a very close ally of a very unpopular President.  He is done.

Those were his tough races, Smash. It proves that when he is underestimated, his tough campaigning carries him over the finish line.

[Smash255]

And he has the guts to call me a hack. HAHA . Even I dont think the impossible is possible.

If you're talking about me, please refute everything I posted. Please address every point about Santorum's 1990 and 1992 campaigns.

That was fourteen and sixteen years ago.  Just because Santorum was able to make a come back in a house race over a decade a go doesn't mean he will be able to do the same now, in a Senate race in a very bad GOP year in which he is a very close ally of a very unpopular President.  He is done.

Those were his tough races, Smash. It proves that when he is underestimated, his tough campaigning carries him over the finish line.

It was different races, different time, different type of year, and he didn't have the strong negative feelings that are in his direction that exist now.

[Conan]

And he has the guts to call me a hack. HAHA . Even I dont think the impossible is possible.

If you're talking about me, please refute everything I posted. Please address every point about Santorum's 1990 and 1992 campaigns.

I am not talking about you in that case but never the less Santorum is going to lose even if Casey rapes a 2 year old german shepard.