Meet The Press: Cardin vs. Steele

[AuH2O]

To you at least.

[AuH2O]

Politicians always dodge questions. Cardin was not very coherent on Iraq, for instance. Steele dodged some too but I don't think most viewers were scribbling flow sheets to grade the debate.

Maryland has been a difficult contest to play the horse-race game with. I think the polls are less valuable than in most other races and the outcome less predictable.

[AuH2O]

Wow, you're dumb. First of all, Bush was polling higher at this time in 2005. Second of all, Virginia is nothing like Maryland. Third of all, AG is a very common position from which to run for Governor.

[AuH2O]

I wasn't comparing Steele and Kilgore at all. I was just pointing out that was a stupid comparison to begin with.

[AuH2O]

Actually he has a pretty clear chance. He holds Republicans, splits indies, and takes 1/3 of the black vote. He wins.

Guaranteed? No. Likely? No. Possible? Without question.

[AuH2O]

Actually he has a pretty clear chance. He holds Republicans, splits indies, and takes 1/3 of the black vote. He wins.

Guaranteed? No. Likely? No. Possible? Without question.

Anything is possible on some level but I'm just saying it isn't realistic at all. He had a lead in one poll (of a point) all year...that is it.

Ditto for Webb. But in Steele's case, the reason I think he has a non-negligible chance to win is that it's unclear how accurate polling on this race is. I think there's a chance the polls are not really indicative of who will turnout, in what numbers.