If the Democrats do not pick up the Senate...
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  If the Democrats do not pick up the Senate...
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Poll
Question: ...will they be favored to pick it up in 2008?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 42

Author Topic: If the Democrats do not pick up the Senate...  (Read 2164 times)
nclib
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« on: October 29, 2006, 02:58:22 PM »

Obviously, it depends on a lot of factors, but I'd say yes. If they don't win the Senate now, they will come very close and also there are more vulnerable Republican seats in 2008 than vulnerable Democratic seats.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2006, 03:04:28 PM »

I don't agree, here's my generic breakdown of the races:

Safe Dem: IL, IO, RI,
Possibly Competitive Dem: AR, DE, LA, MA, MI, MT, WV
Definetly Competitive Dem: NJ, SD

Safe Rep: AL, GA, ID, KS, KY, NE, OK (unless Henry runs), SC, TN, VA, WY
Possbily Competitive Rep: AK, ME, MN, MS, NH, NM, NC, OR, TX
Definetly Competitive Rep: CO

That makes 10 GOP seats in play and 9 DEM seats in play, the GOP could even gain seats
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2006, 03:08:10 PM »

The problems for the Dems in 08' is the fact most of the seats the GOP is defending are southern and bible belt states
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nclib
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2006, 03:12:31 PM »


Are you expecting Biden or Kerry to run for President or retire?  Because otherwise they are totally safe.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2006, 03:17:24 PM »

A lot depends on what incumbents run and which ones don't.  The Republicans certainly do have more seats up for grabs, but a lot are in safe states.

PS (to NJ hack): Ted Stevens has already said he's running for re-election.  You can mark that seat as safe.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2006, 03:18:32 PM »

I'll say no.  Their chances at taking the Senate in '08 will be just slightly under 50% (assuming they don't take it this time).  But only because I think the Senate will most likely go the same way as the presidency in '08, and I give the GOP a slight edge there (simply because of who the likely candidates are).  But just under 50% is still a pretty good shot, so it's likely that they'll win the Senate in either '06, '08 or '10.  I'd be surprised if they don't win the Senate in any of those three elections.
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Conan
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2006, 03:21:15 PM »

Possible dem pick ups:
NH, just need credible challenger in a state that leans dem
ME, Collins keeps her word or if she doesnt has a credible challenger in a state that leans dem
MN, many possible challengers in a state that leans dem
OR, many possible challengers in a state that leans dem
CO, strong challenger in Udall in state that is trending dem
NM, possible retirement, strong challenger in Udall
VA, possible retirement, array of candidates in state trending dem
NC, credible challengers, seat has been in play in most of all past elections, possible Easley run?

Possible Rep pick ups:

SD, Rounds runs could be competitive, otherwise Dem.
LA, naturally competitive especially after Katrina
IO, Harkin retires, is competitive
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2006, 03:22:11 PM »


Are you expecting Biden or Kerry to run for President or retire?  Because otherwise they are totally safe.

Yes, and the GOP has a strong candidate in MA (Romney) and so does DE (Castle)
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2006, 03:23:22 PM »

A lot depends on what incumbents run and which ones don't.  The Republicans certainly do have more seats up for grabs, but a lot are in safe states.

PS (to NJ hack): Ted Stevens has already said he's running for re-election.  You can mark that seat as safe.

If I am the NJ hack, which I assume I am, Ted Stevens is no safe bet, and his son would do much better if he changes his mind
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Conan
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2006, 03:24:35 PM »


Are you expecting Biden or Kerry to run for President or retire?  Because otherwise they are totally safe.

Yes, and the GOP has a strong candidate in MA (Romney) and so does DE (Castle)
Biden Jr. is gonna run maybe. Castle is near death with his recent strokes.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2006, 03:24:42 PM »

Possible dem pick ups:
NH, just need credible challenger in a state that leans dem
ME, Collins keeps her word or if she doesnt has a credible challenger in a state that leans dem
MN, many possible challengers in a state that leans dem
OR, many possible challengers in a state that leans dem
CO, strong challenger in Udall in state that is trending dem
NM, possible retirement, strong challenger in Udall
VA, possible retirement, array of candidates in state trending dem
NC, credible challengers, seat has been in play in most of all past elections, possible Easley run?

Possible Rep pick ups:

SD, Rounds runs could be competitive, otherwise Dem.
LA, naturally competitive especially after Katrina
IO, Harkin retires, is competitive

Notice how most lists included equal numbers, yours is very hackish, how could NJ not be on your radar?  I could see saying they might not pick it up, but it's definetly more on the radar than VA or OR is for Dems
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2006, 03:26:08 PM »


Are you expecting Biden or Kerry to run for President or retire?  Because otherwise they are totally safe.

Yes, and the GOP has a strong candidate in MA (Romney) and so does DE (Castle)

lol.  Romney is hardly 'strong' anymore in Massachusetts after he blasted the state and once he moves hard right in his run for the presidency he will grown even more unpopular.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2006, 03:26:25 PM »

A lot depends on what incumbents run and which ones don't.  The Republicans certainly do have more seats up for grabs, but a lot are in safe states.

PS (to NJ hack): Ted Stevens has already said he's running for re-election.  You can mark that seat as safe.

If I am the NJ hack, which I assume I am, Ted Stevens is no safe bet, and his son would do much better if he changes his mind

Ted Stevens is beloved in AK.  He wins unless they find him in bed with a dead girl or a live boy, and maybe still then.

You are but one of many NJ hacks that populate this forum.  I have chosen to give the lot of you the simple title of "NJ Hack" since it fits everyone so well.  Smiley
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2006, 03:44:47 PM »


Are you expecting Biden or Kerry to run for President or retire?  Because otherwise they are totally safe.

Yes, and the GOP has a strong candidate in MA (Romney) and so does DE (Castle)

Castle is ancient (and unlikely to run for reelection in 2008, let alone for Senate), and Romney is not popular in Massachusetts these days.

When an age limit is put on the senate, let me know
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2006, 03:54:40 PM »

I vote Yes.  As Sam Spade mentioned, a lot of it depends on who chooses to run or retire.  New Mexico, Virginia, Maine, Michigan and Iowa will all be safe if those Senators decide to run for re-election.  They would all be competetive if they did not.  Their will also be formidable challenges to incumbents in Minnesota, Louisiana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Colorado and Oregon I predict.  Their also the uncertainties of Oklahoma and Texas; two Republican states in a presidential year with unpopular Senators who could still face competetive.  The balance overall favours the Democrats. 
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2006, 04:10:59 PM »

DWTL, Castle is not running. He has seniority in the House that he just won't give up. In regards to MA, Romney isn't popular anymore.

I vote yes on this question because while both parties have their opportunities, the Dems' chances in most of those races are better and potential GOP retirements might really hurt us. That being said, if we get a strong Presidential candidate we could turn the tables.
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Conan
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2006, 04:15:30 PM »

Possible dem pick ups:
NH, just need credible challenger in a state that leans dem
ME, Collins keeps her word or if she doesnt has a credible challenger in a state that leans dem
MN, many possible challengers in a state that leans dem
OR, many possible challengers in a state that leans dem
CO, strong challenger in Udall in state that is trending dem
NM, possible retirement, strong challenger in Udall
VA, possible retirement, array of candidates in state trending dem
NC, credible challengers, seat has been in play in most of all past elections, possible Easley run?

Possible Rep pick ups:

SD, Rounds runs could be competitive, otherwise Dem.
LA, naturally competitive especially after Katrina
IO, Harkin retires, is competitive

Notice how most lists included equal numbers, yours is very hackish, how could NJ not be on your radar?  I could see saying they might not pick it up, but it's definetly more on the radar than VA or OR is for Dems
Oregon only was a Rep pickup because of fear in 2002. Your the only one who ever accuses me of being a hack. You've already been called a hack on this thread around 3 times. I am not going to list races that arent competitive just to even things out. Plus the only person who made a list besides me on this thread was you. Its just a year that favors dems, get over it.
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jfern
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2006, 04:17:42 PM »

I say yes. The class 1 Senators are already 18-15 Democratic. Gaining 5 seats would make that be a lopsided 23-10 Democratic, even though the Republicans would still control the Senate.

Class 2, which will be up in 2008, has far more pickup possibilities for the Democrats, seeing as it's 21-12 Republican. Just evening that up would give us 4-5 seats, while we're already ahead in Class 1.

Also, taking the Presidency makes 1 less Senate seat be needed.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2006, 04:21:57 PM »


Oregon only was a Rep pickup because of fear in 2002.

And maybe because Gordon Smith is popular. That's just a maybe though...

 
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Gustaf
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« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2006, 04:30:01 PM »

I say yes. The class 1 Senators are already 18-15 Democratic. Gaining 5 seats would make that be a lopsided 23-10 Democratic, even though the Republicans would still control the Senate.

Class 2, which will be up in 2008, has far more pickup possibilities for the Democrats, seeing as it's 21-12 Republican. Just evening that up would give us 4-5 seats, while we're already ahead in Class 1.

Also, taking the Presidency makes 1 less Senate seat be needed.


But Class I is a lot more Dem-friendly than Class II, looking at the states included.
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Conan
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2006, 04:50:50 PM »


Oregon only was a Rep pickup because of fear in 2002.

And maybe because Gordon Smith is popular. That's just a maybe though...

 
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I really dont care what you think. You dont have to live in reality.
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Deano963
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« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2006, 05:58:39 PM »

A lot depends on what incumbents run and which ones don't.  The Republicans certainly do have more seats up for grabs, but a lot are in safe states.

PS (to NJ hack): Ted Stevens has already said he's running for re-election.  You can mark that seat as safe.

If I am the NJ hack, which I assume I am, Ted Stevens is no safe bet, and his son would do much better if he changes his mind

LOL - The same son of Ted Stevens whose offices were recently raided by federal investigators?

Riiiiiight.......
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Deano963
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2006, 06:00:24 PM »


Are you expecting Biden or Kerry to run for President or retire?  Because otherwise they are totally safe.

Yes, and the GOP has a strong candidate in MA (Romney) and so does DE (Castle)

Marty Meehan or any other generic Dem would mop the floor with Romney. You are delusional.
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Nym90
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« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2006, 06:15:46 PM »

At this point the answer is yes, although obviously a lot could change between now and then. Immediately after the 2004 election no one seriously thought the Dems could have a chance to take back the Senate in 2006.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2006, 06:22:20 PM »

At this point the answer is yes, although obviously a lot could change between now and then. Immediately after the 2004 election no one seriously thought the Dems could have a chance to take back the Senate in 2006.

I think it's way too soon to talk about 2008 in this sense.  2 years in politics is a lifetime.
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