Peter Hart Poll NV 03: Hafen closing in on Porter

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D: 41%, R: 43%

http://www.tessahafen.com/press/~f5dda83a-f0dd-4a00-afb6-0e9a53542226/

[Alcon]

This is such a weird election cycle.

Some places look to be affected by a huge national wave.

Other offices seem to be entirely unaffected.

Election Day could be a big surprise either way.

[Sam Spade]

This is such a weird election cycle.

Some places look to be affected by a huge national wave.

Other offices seem to be entirely unaffected.

Election Day could be a big surprise either way.

Explain, please.  If the fact that some places were affected and other weren't, wouldn't that lead to the conclusion that some of the changes are regional, as opposed to national.

[Keystone Phil]

Explain, please.  If the fact that some places were affected and other weren't, wouldn't that lead to the conclusion that some of the changes are regional, as opposed to national.

I might be stepping too far into the big leagues here but I'll try to tackle that one. I think Alcon is saying that some of these races are being nationalized because of the issues and the unpopularity of the President nationwide. Usually, these places (some districts in Indiana, for example) wouldn't be hurt that badly but since it is seen as more of a nationalized midterm year, the traditionally safe members might fall. I'd say that it's not regional because races are being affected all over the country, regardless of the state, ideology, party breakdown, etc.

[Alcon]

This is such a weird election cycle.

Some places look to be affected by a huge national wave.

Other offices seem to be entirely unaffected.

Election Day could be a big surprise either way.

Explain, please.  If the fact that some places were affected and other weren't, wouldn't that lead to the conclusion that some of the changes are regional, as opposed to national.

Phil pretty much explained what I meant.

Two districts that seem at base fairly similar in demographics and voting patterns.  One seems to have swung majorly due to Bush and the GOP's current unpopularity.  The other seems unaffected.  It seems to have no real rhyme nor reason.  Most Indiana seats move heavily toward the Democrats, and one Indianapolis incumbent seems to be in trouble.  It isn't necessarily true, but if any of the weirder results we've seen is, we could have a strange Election Day.  Especially if anti-incumbency is the golden sceptre.

With the additional question mark of pollster accuracy and the inherently flawed nature of congressional polling, I was just saying that there is a chance (I do not think it is likely, per se) that on election day, there will be an unusual number of surprisingly different-than-expected results.

[Sam Spade]

This is such a weird election cycle.

Some places look to be affected by a huge national wave.

Other offices seem to be entirely unaffected.

Election Day could be a big surprise either way.

Explain, please.  If the fact that some places were affected and other weren't, wouldn't that lead to the conclusion that some of the changes are regional, as opposed to national.

Phil pretty much explained what I meant.

Two districts that seem at base fairly similar in demographics and voting patterns.  One seems to have swung majorly due to Bush and the GOP's current unpopularity.  The other seems unaffected.  It seems to have no real rhyme nor reason.  Most Indiana seats move heavily toward the Democrats, and one Indianapolis incumbent seems to be in trouble.  It isn't necessarily true, but if any of the weirder results we've seen is, we could have a strange Election Day.  Especially if anti-incumbency is the golden sceptre.

With the additional question mark of pollster accuracy and the inherently flawed nature of congressional polling, I was just saying that there is a chance (I do not think it is likely, per se) that on election day, there will be an unusual number of surprisingly different-than-expected results.

My larger question is what CD or CD's are you referring to? 

Of course, election day can be different than the polls beforehand, but even Congressional polls based on region are stating some pretty clear and obvious things to me in most races.

Also, in response to Keystone Phil, the one thing which differs Indiana from a number of these other races is that it is clear that there is not only minimal Democratic crossover and depressed Republican turnout, but that there is also Republican crossover voting.  IN-08 is lost because Hostettler refuses to campaign in a modern fashion.  He has been gaining a little bit of late, but I presume this is due to more of him picking up voters he should have had all along. 

Which leaves us IN-02, IN-09.  Even though their numbers are similar, these are very two different CDs.  IN-02 is old rust belt areas and historically Democrat.  They also tend to be less socially conservative.  OTOH, IN-09 is less historically Democrat, though still somewhat so, is much more socially conservative and rural, with a decent amount of exurban Louisville.  This is the reason why Chocola stands about a 10%-15% chance of winning in my mind and Sodrel about 30%-40%.

But anyway, this is irrespective of my point that Indiana has shown all the three signs of a wave since August and the history that Indiana has of throwing all of its representatives out at once (look at 1958) also plays into my thinking.

[poughies]

Explain, please.  If the fact that some places were affected and other weren't, wouldn't that lead to the conclusion that some of the changes are regional, as opposed to national.

I might be stepping too far into the big leagues here but I'll try to tackle that one. I think Alcon is saying that some of these races are being nationalized because of the issues and the unpopularity of the President nationwide. Usually, these places (some districts in Indiana, for example) wouldn't be hurt that badly but since it is seen as more of a nationalized midterm year, the traditionally safe members might fall. I'd say that it's not regional because races are being affected all over the country, regardless of the state, ideology, party breakdown, etc.

Where'd your weldon sign go? As to the point, I think that in a national wave sometimes it is more likely for unprepared imcumbents to go down. Thus, in places like Indiana, the unprepared gotta go (though Hostetler has always been in trouble)... while in Connecticut Simmons knows how to win and thus is doing it.....

[True Democrat]

This is such a weird election cycle.

Some places look to be affected by a huge national wave.

Other offices seem to be entirely unaffected.

Election Day could be a big surprise either way.

All politics is local. . .sometimes.

[Keystone Phil]

Where'd your weldon sign go?

I knew that would come up soon enough.    There are two reasons why Weldon's sign was replaced in my signature:

1) I wanted to put the sign of this State Representative candidate in my collage since I have put in more work for him than any other candidate this cycle and his race is a top priority for me. It's always good to show the support.

2) Weldon, while I still want to keep the seat, has screwed things up big time. He was never a favorite of mine and all this stuff coming out now doesn't help. So while I really would like to keep the seat (though that's not going to happen now), I am rather displeased by his actions. I am no longer visibly supporting his campaign and I'm glad I don't have to vote in that race.

[MarkWarner08]

Where'd your weldon sign go?

I knew that would come up soon enough.    There are two reasons why Weldon's sign was replaced in my signature:

1) I wanted to put the sign of this State Representative candidate in my collage since I have put in more work for him than any other candidate this cycle and his race is a top priority for me. It's always good to show the support.

2) Weldon, while I still want to keep the seat, has screwed things up big time. He was never a favorite of mine and all this stuff coming out now doesn't help. So while I really would like to keep the seat (though that's not going to happen now), I am rather displeased by his actions. I am no longer visibly supporting his campaign and I'm glad I don't have to vote in that race.

Weldon and Sherwood are now distinct underdogs. Do you have any thoughts on the tightening in PA-06? I still agree with you about PA-08 -- Fitzpatrick will win by 53%-47%.

[Keystone Phil]

Weldon and Sherwood are now distinct underdogs. Do you have any thoughts on the tightening in PA-06? I still agree with you about PA-08 -- Fitzpatrick will win by 53%-47%.

Suddenly, PA 6 is tightening yet you had no commentary when the polls showed Gerlach going up.    He'll squeak by...again.

[MarkWarner08]

Weldon and Sherwood are now distinct underdogs. Do you have any thoughts on the tightening in PA-06? I still agree with you about PA-08 -- Fitzpatrick will win by 53%-47%.

Suddenly, PA 6 is tightening yet you had no commentary when the polls showed Gerlach going up.    He'll squeak by...again.

I thought we jousted back in the day when Gerlach was up by 8%.
I've always confidently, or cockily said Murphy would win and I'm not changing my mind.

[Keystone Phil]

Weldon and Sherwood are now distinct underdogs. Do you have any thoughts on the tightening in PA-06? I still agree with you about PA-08 -- Fitzpatrick will win by 53%-47%.

Suddenly, PA 6 is tightening yet you had no commentary when the polls showed Gerlach going up.    He'll squeak by...again.

I thought we jousted back in the day when Gerlach was up by 8%.
I've always confidently, or cockily said Murphy would win and I'm not changing my mind.

Yeah, but you also cockily said Gerlach had no chance which is dead wrong.