Could Republicans break even?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Look I know I'm going to get called all kinds of names for this, but seriously this is starting to look like a real possibility.  It could happen two ways:

5 out of the 7 endangered GOP win, coupled w/a Steele and Kean victory
Polling suggests DeWine, Santorum, and Chaffee are the only decided underdogs in their race, Kean is even and Steele is gaining momentum and running an amazing campaign

Second way:

4 out of 7 endangered win (meaning Santorum, DeWine, and Chafee could lose) and Kean, Steele, and McGavick win

I know the odds are very low, but is there a chance this happens?

I'd putting the odds at 10%

[Sam Spade]

No.  At least not under your scenario, which is ridiculous.  Chafee stands more of a chance of winning than McGavick.

[Nym90]

This would require the GOP to lose only PA and OH, while picking up NJ and MD. Not going to happen.

[dazzleman]

The GOP will definitely lose seats, IMO.  It's a question of whether they lose their majority, not whether they lose seats.

[adam]

I would say the chance is about as good as Jesus donating to the draft Anton LaVey comittee.

[Alcon]

I'm not quite sure why you're holding on to the idea of a McGavick win.

[Jake]

This scenario is of such low probability it's not worth discussing.

[MarkWarner08]

This scenario is of such low probability it's not worth discussing.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[adam]

This scenario is of such low probability it's not worth discussing.

Hey! We agree on something!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Iowa Futures has 2.1% odds on the Republicans keeping or enlarging their 55 seat majority.



The odds for the similar situation in the House are 2.3%.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Considering this campaign cycle has been anything but normal, I wouldn't doubt it, but I highly think it won't happen, but if you look at it race by race and not national pic it's certainly not impossible

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The GOP holding onto 55 seats is possible but it would require every single seat I'm predicting as lean Democrat to go Republican.  Without some external stimulus I can't see Montana, Maryland, New Jersey, and Rhode Island all breaking for the Republicans.  As it stands now, I'm predicting a 50-50 Senate after one of the GOP tossups I have flips Democrat, so in that sense that might break even wit an even 50-50 Senate.

[J. J.]

The GOP holding onto 55 seats is possible but it would require every single seat I'm predicting as lean Democrat to go Republican.  Without some external stimulus I can't see Montana, Maryland, New Jersey, and Rhode Island all breaking for the Republicans.  As it stands now, I'm predicting a 50-50 Senate after one of the GOP tossups I have flips Democrat, so in that sense that might break even wit an even 50-50 Senate.

I can actually see all four states going Republican, but it's about 2:1 against.

The real question is how strong is the GOP GOTV drive.

[Eraserhead]

DWTL this is virtually impossible but you get points for effort.

[Jake]

Considering this campaign cycle has been anything but normal, I wouldn't doubt it, but I highly think it won't happen, but if you look at it race by race and not national pic it's certainly not impossible

Pennsylvania: Santorum's only chance is a major event that changes the race combined with a ridiculous GOP turnout operation; 10%

Ohio: DeWine is pretty much done here, killed by the national and state climate; 15%

Montana: Burns has pulled it back to about even, but Tester's sitting above 50%; 35%

Rhode Island: Chafee is down in the polls and this is one state where GOP base turnout probably won't be very good; 25%

Missouri: Talent's basically tied with McCaskill; 55%

Tennessee: Ford's campaign is basically tanking right now. Corker's favored right now IMO; 75%

Virginia: Webb's chances are still pretty decent if things go right for him. Allen's favored of course; 65%

Maryland: Steele's only chance is black's voting for him in large numbers; 20%

New Jersey: This race is still tight, but is moving away from the GOP by the day. Kean's chances ride on getting the undecideds to break towards him late; 20%

Now, you're proposing the following happen:

Democrats win:
Pennsylvania (.9)
Ohio (.85)

Republicans win:
Maryland (.2)
New Jersey (.2)
Virginia (.65)
Tennessee (.75)
Missouri (.55)
Montana (.35)
Rhode Island (.25)

Probability of that is (.85*.9*.2*.2*.65*.75*.55*.35*.25) or about 0.00072

Even if the GOP had even odds to win these races, the probability of this scenario is 0.002, or a fifth of 1%. It's basically not going to happen.

[Beet]

You only multiply the probabilities if the events are totally independent Jake, but some of the key variables (national events, GOTV operation) are not independent, they are likely to affect all the races in a similiar fashion.

[Jake]

Very true. Forgive the error. The basic point remains however, and I hope the NJ Hack gets it. The probability of, basically, a GOP sweep is staggeringly low. Low enough that it shouldn't even be in your wettest dreams.

[Sam Spade]

Considering this campaign cycle has been anything but normal, I wouldn't doubt it, but I highly think it won't happen, but if you look at it race by race and not national pic it's certainly not impossible

Pennsylvania: Santorum's only chance is a major event that changes the race combined with a ridiculous GOP turnout operation; 10%

Ohio: DeWine is pretty much done here, killed by the national and state climate; 15%

Montana: Burns has pulled it back to about even, but Tester's sitting above 50%; 35%

Rhode Island: Chafee is down in the polls and this is one state where GOP base turnout probably won't be very good; 25%

Missouri: Talent's basically tied with McCaskill; 55%

Tennessee: Ford's campaign is basically tanking right now. Corker's favored right now IMO; 75%

Virginia: Webb's chances are still pretty decent if things go right for him. Allen's favored of course; 65%

Maryland: Steele's only chance is black's voting for him in large numbers; 20%

New Jersey: This race is still tight, but is moving away from the GOP by the day. Kean's chances ride on getting the undecideds to break towards him late; 20%

Now, you're proposing the following happen:

Democrats win:
Pennsylvania (.9)
Ohio (.85)

Republicans win:
Maryland (.2)
New Jersey (.2)
Virginia (.65)
Tennessee (.75)
Missouri (.55)
Montana (.35)
Rhode Island (.25)

Probability of that is (.85*.9*.2*.2*.65*.75*.55*.35*.25) or about 0.00072

Even if the GOP had even odds to win these races, the probability of this scenario is 0.002, or a fifth of 1%. It's basically not going to happen.

You have the Ohio % too high, it should be down at around 5% (yes, less than Santorum).  I'd also put Montana at around 30%.  Maryland (25%) and New Jersey (35%) should be higher.  Steele would need to get about 30%-35% of the black vote (imho) in order to make it a race.  I think Nick and I both agree on that.

It's kinda funny, but you're seeing VA and TN about the way I'm seeing them now.  VA will be closer than TN.

[gorkay]

I don't think there's any chance that the Republicans won't suffer net losses in both houses, but here's a point that I haven't seen made in all the Democratic euphoria and Republican gloom: if, as I expect, the Democrats wind up with a majority of 10 seats or less in the House and anywhere from 49 to 51 seats in the Senate, IMO it will be a pretty Pyrrhic victory. There's no way they're going to get any legislation passed. All of us who remember past Democratic Congresses know that, even with much larger margins, they seldom got enough votes together to get anything passed due to defections on their right wing. And even if they do, Bush will veto it. So I don't look for anything to change even if the Democrats take both Houses.