Virginia: Webb has a real legitimate shot and I mean legit (rasmussen)

[poughies]

Virginia: Challenger James Webb (D) has taken a modest lead over Senator George Allen in a Sunday night survey. The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Webb with 48% of the vote to 46% for Allen. When leaners are included, it's Webb 51% Allen 46%. Data and Article coming later. Favorables for the candidates are essentially unchanged from last week. Allen has lost ground among Republicans and unaffiliated voters. Overall, those with a "very unfavorable" opinion of Allen increased from 31% to 36%. Those with a "very unfavorable" opinion of Webb grew from 21% to 24%.

[© tweed]

I'm in love with the world.

[© tweed]

I'm in love with the world.

Doesn't this race look a little bit like Kaine v Kilgore from a year ago?

[okstate]

So we have Webb up 4 in a DSCC internal, up three in LA Times, up 5 in Rasmussen? Then down 3 in SurveyUSA and down 4 in Mason-Dixon.

This one's a tossup, folks.

[okstate]

Anyone willing to say Webb is more likely to win than Ford now?

I think the order of vulnerability of party switching is now...

PA
OH
RI
MT
MO
VA
TN
NJ
AZ
MD

[Conan]

Awesome

[poughies]

want to see a rasmussen poll on Tennessee before i make that statement, though it is looking more likely right now. Take what you can get i guess.

[mgrossbe]

I really like ford but webb would be a really good person to have in the senate if the dems take the senate. From what i hear from him he seems like a person who could help us get out successfully from iraq and it would nice to see someone with a child in the war.

[AuH2O]

In a close race, polls are basically worthless. If VA Dems turn out in a huge numbers, Webb will win. Otherwise he will lose. The polls are not going to add anything to that analysis.

[Frodo]

Virginia: Challenger James Webb (D) has taken a modest lead over Senator George Allen in a Sunday night survey. The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Webb with 48% of the vote to 46% for Allen. When leaners are included, it's Webb 51% Allen 46%. Data and Article coming later. Favorables for the candidates are essentially unchanged from last week. Allen has lost ground among Republicans and unaffiliated voters. Overall, those with a "very unfavorable" opinion of Allen increased from 31% to 36%. Those with a "very unfavorable" opinion of Webb grew from 21% to 24%.

Interesting and encouraging -I wonder if this could be as a result of a backlash against Allen's desperate and below-the-belt attacks on Webb's books and their explicit sexual content, or is this due to completely separate causes?   

[Alcon]

In a close race, polls are basically worthless.

What exactly does that mean?

It's polls that tell you how close a race is.  That's...an odd way of thinking.

[Gabu]

Virginia: Challenger James Webb (D) has taken a modest lead over Senator George Allen in a Sunday night survey. The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll shows Webb with 48% of the vote to 46% for Allen. When leaners are included, it's Webb 51% Allen 46%.

Wow, Webb is in the lead and absolutely none of the undecideds are leaning towards Allen.

I'm not gonna get my hopes up too much, but if Webb wins, that will seriously make my day, even if the Republicans keep the Senate.

[Boris]

This just made my day. My mood has increased tenfold.

[memphis]

We need to send more Indian-Americans to film incumbant Republicans up for re-election. 

[AuH2O]

In a close race, polls are basically worthless.

What exactly does that mean?

It's polls that tell you how close a race is.  That's...an odd way of thinking.

Let's say you have four polls, with candidates A and B:

1- A: 50, B:47
2- A: 47, B:50
3- A: 49, B: 47
4- A: 46, B:50

Quite literally the only thing we would know is that the race is close. Which candidate is ahead in a particular poll is totally worthless, because there are polls on both sides. That's how it is right now in VA.

[Alcon]

I don't really think that's any less true when the race is not close.  When the polls are close, all they tell us is that the race is close.  When they aren't, all they tell us is that the race isn't close.

I know what you mean, though.

[RJ]

I'd rather see Ford win than Webb, especially after that taseless RNC ad.

[Mr. Morden]

Incredibly, Webb has now taken a slight lead over Allen on Tradesports.  I guess Rasmussen + LA Times has really swayed people, or at least those betting on Tradesports.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yes, we have a decent chance there. I was hesitant to say it was looking good before, when Allen had led every single poll (although some of the leads were minor and statistically insignificant).

[Democratic Hawk]

Encouraging if nothing else

Dave

[Deano963]

No. Freakin. Way.

This really made my day. 5% lead with leaners!?!? Go Webb!

[Raoul Takemoto]

This is excellent news, though I take it with a grain of salt - the Republican GOTV machine is in high gear.

[sethm0]

 The similarites to the '05 Governor's race are eerily similar. Allen isn't as much of a moron as Kilgore (which says a lot about Kilgore) and he does have more resources at his disposal, but the trend over the last few weeks is pretty hard to deny. I'm very close to switching my prediction to Webb.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Breaking: Webb up 50-46 in CNN poll

http://www.dailypress.com/news/local/virginia/dp-sou--virginiasenate-p1030oct30,0,6866606.story?coll=dp-headlines-virginia

[Gabu]

Is Webb running away with this one at the last minute, or is this just a temporary blip?

I sure hope it's the first, because damn, that would be incredible.