60 different house districts: New Majority Watch polling

[okstate]

http://www.majoritywatch.com

(in parentheses are trendlines)

AZ-01 Renzi (R) 48 (46) Simon (D) 46 (50)

CA-04 Doolittle (R) 49 (52) Brown (D) 46 (44)

CA-11 Pombo (R) 46 McNerney (D) 48

C0-04 Musgrave (R) 45 (47) Paccione (D) 48 (41)

CO-07 (open) O'Donnell (R) 46 (48) Perlmutter (D) 51 (47)

CT-02 Simmons (R) 45 (45) Courtney (D) 51 (51)

CT-04 Shays (R) 52 (49) Farrell (D) 43 (42)

CT-05 Johnson (R) 43 (52) Murphy (D) 51 (46)

FL-13 (open) Buchanan (R) 47 (45) Jennings (D) 49 (47)

FL-22 (8/27-29 trends) Shaw (R) 48 (52) Klein (D) 50 (44)

IA-02 Leach (R) 50 (48) Loebsack (D) 48 (48)

IL-06 (open) Roskam (R) 47 (47) Duckworth (D) 48 (46)

IL-08 Bean (D) 50 (47) McSweeney (R) 45 (44)

IL-10 Kirk (R) 46 (46) Seals (D) 48 (44)

IN-02 Chocola (R) 45 (46) Donnelly (D) 48 (50)

IN-08 Hostettler (R) 43 (45) Ellsworth (D) 53 (51)

IN-09 Sodrel (R) 43 (42) Hill (D) 51 (53)

KY-03 Northup (R) 46 (48) Yarmuth (D) 52 (48)

KY-04 Davis (R) 46 (49) Lucas (D) 50 (46)

MN-01 Gutknecht (R) 50 (48) Walz (D) 47 (47)

MN-06 (open) Bachmann (R) 48 (45) Wetterling (D) 47 (49)

NC-08 Hayes (R) 44 (44) Kissell (D) 48 (51)

NC-11 Taylor (R) 44 (44) Shuler (D) 53 (52)

NH-02 Bass (R) 47 Hodes (D) 50

NJ-07 Ferguson (R) 46 (49) Stender (D) 43 (46)

NV-03 Porter (R) 51 (51) Hafen (D) 44 (43)

NY-03 King (R) 51 (47) Mejias (D) 44 (45)

NY-19 Kelly (R) 47 (40) Hall (D) 49 (49)

NY-20 Sweeney (R) 42 (41) Gillibrand (D) 53 (54)

NY-25 Walsh (R) 44 (43) Maffei (D) 53 (51)

NY-29 Kuhl (R) 42 (40) Massa (D) 53 (52)

OH-01 Chabot (R) 46 Cranley (D) 48

OH-02 Schmidt (R) 51 (45) Wulsin (D) 46 (48)

OH-12 Tiberi (R) 51 Shamansky (D) 46

PA-04 Hart (R) 51 Altmire (D) 47

PA-06 Gerlach (R) 46 (46) Murphy (D) 51 (52)

PA-08 Fitzpatrick (R) 47 (53) Murphy (D) 50 (45)

VA-02 Drake (R) 45 (49) Kellam (D) 50 (45)

WA-05 McMorris (R) 51 Goldmark (D) 46

WA-08 Reichert (R) 47 (48) Burner (D) 49 (45)

WI-08 Gard (R) 45 (46) Kagen (D) 51 (48)

[Keystone Phil]

Dem polling can only show Murphy over Fitz by three? That's more good news for the GOP.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

On the plus side, these results look good. On the negative side, this polling firm is untested.

[Keystone Phil]

Why didn't the jokes poll their favorite district (TX 22)?

[Democratic Hawk]

Dem polling can only show Murphy over Fitz by three? That's more good news for the GOP.

RT Strategies is a bipartisan public affairs opinion research and polling organization, headed by Thomas Riehle, a Democrat, and Lance Tarrance Jnr, a Republican pollster. They sponsor of the National Omnibus Poll, and partners of the Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Why didn't the jokes poll their favorite district (TX 22)?

Only jokes to the extent that their polling seems unfavorable towards your prefered party Phil. Wait until November 8, then you can determine whether they are jokes or not

BTW, as early as May, Riehle and Tarrance were saying Don't Bet on the GOP in 2006 on the basis of the April 27-30 Cook Political Report/RT Strategies national survey. Democrats were leading Republicans by 12 points, 49-37, and by 17 points, 53-36, among registered and most likely voters, respectively, back then

And yes, I'm of the opinion that Fitzpatrick will likely hold his seat

Dave

[Smash255]

Not to thrilled to see king up 7 in the poll, but the party breakdown of the poll seems to indicate a heavier GOP turnout than expected.  Among those who stated they were certain voters it is a dead heat.

[Conan]

Dem polling can only show Murphy over Fitz by three? That's more good news for the GOP.

This isnt dem polling.

[mgrossbe]

Once again dave you beat me to the punch but just to further your point here is from their offical site

RT Strategies is a bipartisan polling firm based in Washington, D.C. Constituent Dynamics is a non-partisan IVR polling firm based in Seattle, Washington.

[Democratic Hawk]

http://www.majoritywatch.com

(in parentheses are trendlines)

C0-04 Musgrave (R) 45 (47) Paccione (D) 48 (41)

OH-02 Schmidt (R) 51 (45) Wulsin (D) 46 (48)

Well, all being well come November 7 Democrats get the Oz double with those two

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Once again dave you beat me to the punch but just to further your point here is from their offical site

RT Strategies is a bipartisan polling firm based in Washington, D.C. Constituent Dynamics is a non-partisan IVR polling firm based in Seattle, Washington.

... which reminds me ol' Hawk's Indiana Watch Thread needs updating . Plus there's a Research 2000 in on IN-03. Souder's leading Hayhurst 52 to 40

Dave

[mgrossbe]

it was always a pipe dream but never hurts to have one occasionally. though i would like to see these guys poll the district but if they are not its probably a bad sign.

[Democratic Hawk]

it was always a pipe dream but never hurts to have one occasionally. though i would like to see these guys poll the district but if they are not its probably a bad sign.

I'd be surprised to see RT Strategies/CD poll more than the 60 Districts they have already. They've more or less covered the toss-ups and lean Republicans but you never know. And it's more than likely the election will be won and lost in these 60

Of course, there may well be one or two surprising results way and beyond these 60 Districts

Dave

[Keystone Phil]

I could have sworn that Constituent Dynamics was a Dem firm.

[Boris]

Still, does anyone else these numbers look too good (or bad, depending upon perspective) to be true?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I could have sworn that Constituent Dynamics was a Dem firm.

We get to find out if they have a bias on election day.

[Democratic Hawk]

Still, does anyone else these numbers look too good (or bad, depending upon perspective) to be true?

Well, they are, undoubtedly, more encouraging for Democrats then they are Republicans but as pollsters I dare say they hope to be accurate come November 7

I'm yet to make my House predictions but I'll be taking all polls into the equation, among other things, because I hope to be as accurate as possible

Dave

[sethm0]

 They are a nonpartisan firm, but their polls have favored Democrats significantly compared to other polls. I won't let these results get my hopes up too much, but I guess we'll just wait and see.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm surpised that GA-12 isn't on their list of districts to poll.  It's close thanks to the partisan gerrymandering the GA GOP did since the last election and it's getting a whole bunch of RNCC, DCCC, and 527 ads. (Barrow is one of the Dems targeted by Bob Perry (dba Economic Freedom Fund).

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm surpised that GA-12 isn't on their list of districts to poll.  It's close thanks to the partisan gerrymandering the GA GOP did since the last election and it's getting a whole bunch of RNCC, DCCC, and 527 ads. (Barrow is one of the Dems targeted by Bob Perry (dba Economic Freedom Fund).

They've polled very few Democratic districts, IA-03, IL-08, OH-06, TX-17 and WV-01. I think that's it. I'd have thought GA-08 and GA-12 were ripe for polling as part of this project

Dave

[Downwinder]

IMO, these numbers seem pretty right on for the House, especially after this bloody campaign season, were republicans were much more bloodied than Dems.

[HardRCafé]

They are a nonpartisan firm, but their polls have favored Democrats significantly compared to other polls.

Dem internals are actually more accurate.

[Gustaf]

Well, there might be a wave, who knows...but I'm not gonna bet everything on one poll. Never forget 2004!

[Democratic Hawk]

Well, there might be a wave, who knows...but I'm not gonna bet everything on one poll. Never forget 2004!

Neither would I but "Majority Watch" contains polls on no fewer than 60 House Districts, some of which they've polled once, some of which they've polled twice and some of which they've polled three times

Certainly on a number of races, for example, the 'Indiana Three', they are consistent with other pollsters

Dave

[Jake]

Dem polling can only show Murphy over Fitz by three? That's more good news for the GOP.

RT Strategies is a bipartisan public affairs opinion research and polling organization, headed by Thomas Riehle, a Democrat, and Lance Tarrance Jnr, a Republican pollster. They sponsor of the National Omnibus Poll, and partners of the Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll

Dave

Bipartisan doesn't mean not partisan.