MD: Internal D: O'Malley(D) leads by six against Ehrlich(R)

[OC]

New Poll: Maryland Governor by internal on 2006-10-30

Summary: D: 50%, R: 44%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Sam Spade]

This is a Democratic internal poll.  Please mark as such.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

There is also a new New Pollster function, so you don't have to use 2000 Election Result.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Let's average the internals. O'Malley up by 3.5. Sounds about right.

I think Cardin will win more than O'Malley now.

[nick]

The Sun Poll undersampled Af-American voters and the Post poll oversampled.  In 2002 and 1998 there was 21% turnout among African Americans.  The Sun poll is assuming 19%.  Considering Leggett, Steele, and Brown are on the ballot, one can assume turout will at least be in line with 2002/1998.

The Post poll made the mistake of assuming Af-American turnout willd be 25%, which is probably wrong considering only 24% turned out in the 2004 presidential election.  I think it will be somewhere around 21-22%, which obviously benefits O'Malley.  Not sure what type of impact it will have on the Steele/Cardin race.

[AuH2O]

Uh oh, O'Malley releases an internal. That is a really bad sign for him. I had thought he would win but obviously his campaign is rattled right now.