Your Final Senate Predictions
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Author Topic: Your Final Senate Predictions  (Read 5733 times)
nini2287
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« on: October 31, 2006, 11:24:52 AM »
« edited: October 31, 2006, 03:25:49 PM by nini2287 »
I know the title of the thread says "Final", but my deadline for updating my picks is next Tuesday at midnight.

I'm also putting a * next to my endorsed candidates

Arizona
Kyl* 54, Pederson 46

Connecticut
Lieberman* 49, Lamont 42, Schlesinger 9

Maryland
Cardin 53, Steele* 47

Michigan
Stabenow* 55, Bouchard 45

Minnesota
Klobuchar 56, Kennedy 44

Missouri
Talent >50, McCaskill <50

Montana
Tester* 53, Burns 45

New Jersey
Menendez 52, Kean* 48

Ohio
Brown 54, DeWine* 46

Pennsylvania
Casey* 55, Santorum 45

Rhode Island
Chafee* >50, Whitehouse <50 (still holding out hope)

Tennessee
Corker* 52, Ford 48

Virginia
Allen 52, Webb* 48

Washington
Cantwell* 55, McGavick 45
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tmcusa2
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2006, 11:31:44 AM »
Quote from: nini2287 on October 31, 2006, 11:24:52 AM
I know the title of the thread says "Final", but my deadline for updating my picks is next Tuesday at midnight.

Arizona
Kyl 54, Pederson 46

Connecticut
Lieberman 49, Lamont 42, Schlesinger 9

Maryland
Cardin 53, Steele 47

Michigan
Stabenow 55, Bouchard 45

Minnesota
Klobuchar 56, Kennedy 44

Missouri
Talent >50, McCaskill <50

Montana
Tester 53, Burns 45

New Jersey
Menendez 52, Kean 48

Ohio
Brown 54, DeWine 46

Pennsylvania
Casey 55, Santorum 45

Rhode Island
Chafee >50, Whitehouse <50 (still holding out hope)

Tennessee
Corker 52, Ford 48

Virginia
Allen 52, Webb 48


I predict Democrats win all of the above (except Conn. where Lieberman wins) although I could be wrong.. I had originally predicted Carter would win Nev. and that no longer seems like a prudent pick
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2006, 03:22:06 PM »
not until Monday night I won't.
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BRTD
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2006, 03:25:48 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2006, 03:28:34 PM by Miss Catholic »
I'll do mine on Friday, since that's when my predictions are due for my elections class. And I'll do every seat.

BTW, those 56-44 predictions for Minnesota are not going to happen, we have a strong third party that'll take around 3% probably. Almost every Minnesota race has at least that much going to third parties.
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Alcon
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2006, 03:27:45 PM »
Nini, don't forget third parties.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2006, 06:01:31 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2006, 09:36:44 PM by Eraserhead »
Alright I'll give it a shot... (I may update it though.)

Arizona
Kyl 53, Pederson 46

Connecticut
Lieberman 44, Lamont 41, Schlesinger 13

Maryland
Cardin 56, Steele 43

Michigan
Stabenow 58, Bouchard 42

Minnesota
Klobuchar 57, Kennedy 38

Missouri
McCaskill 52, Talent 48

Montana
Tester 53, Burns 46

New Jersey
Menendez 54, Kean 45

Ohio
Brown 57, DeWine 42

Pennsylvania
Casey 58, Santorum 42

Rhode Island
Whitehouse 56, Chafee 44

Tennessee
Corker 53, Ford 47

Virginia
Webb 53, Allen 47

Washington
Cantwell 58, McGavick 42
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okstate
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2006, 06:11:40 PM »
I'll go ahead and post mine, with the caveat that I may edit them up until Monday night.

FINAL OVERALL PREDICTION: Democratic net gain of 6 seats and with it control of the Senate.

Democratic pickups: PA, OH, RI, MT, MO, and VA.
Republican pickups: None

Arizona:
Kyl 52
Pederson 47

California:
Feinstein 55
Mountjoy 43

Connecticut:
Lieberman 46
Lamont 41
Schlesinger 12

Delaware:
Carper 68
Ting 29

Florida:
Nelson 62
Harris 38

Hawaii:
Akaka 73
Thielen 25

Indiana:
Lugar 91
Others 9

Maine:
Snowe 79
Bright 19

Maryland:
Cardin 51
Steele 48

Massachusetts:
Kennedy 64
Chase 36

Michigan:
Stabenow 52
Bouchard 47

Minnesota:
Klobuchar 56
Kennedy 37
Others 7

Mississippi:
Lott 60
Fleming 38

Missouri:
McCaskill 49.4
Talent 49.1
Others 1.5

Montana:
Tester 52
Burns 48

Nebraska:
Nelson 56
Ricketts 43

Nevada:
Ensign 57
Carter 42

New Jersey:
Menendez 54
Kean 45

New Mexico:
Bingaman 64
McCulloch 34

New York:
Clinton 68
Spencer 29
Others 3

North Dakota
Conrad 57
Grotberg 43

Ohio:
Brown 56
DeWine 43

Pennsylvania:
Casey 57
Santorum 43

Rhode Island:
Whitehouse 51
Chafee 49

Tennessee:
Corker 50
Ford 49

Texas:
Hutchison 65
Radnofsky 33

Utah:
Hatch 74
Ashdown 23

Vermont:
Sanders 55
Tarrant 42

Virginia:
Webb 51
Allen 49

Washington:
Cantwell 56
McGavick 42

West Virginia:
Byrd 63
Raese 36

Wisconsin:
Kohl 70
Lorge 28

Wyoming:
Thomas 78
Groutage 20
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Boris
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2006, 06:17:20 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2006, 08:19:30 PM by Boris »
Arizona
Kyl 54-45

Connecticut
Lieberman 50-42-8

Maryland
Cardin 53-45

Michigan
Stabenow 56-43

Minnesota
Klobuchar 56-43

Missouri
Talent 49.7-49.5

Montana
Tester 51-48

New Jersey
Menendez 51-48

Ohio
Brown 54-45

Pennsylvania
Casey 55-45

Rhode Island
Whitehouse 53-46

Tennessee
Corker 50-49

Virginia
Allen 50-49

Washington
Cantwell 55-44
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2006, 06:20:58 PM »

Where does the other 2% go? There is no real organized write in effort.
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Conan
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2006, 07:39:21 PM »
^^^^^^^^^^^^
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AuH2O
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2006, 07:49:12 PM »
This will be my last prediction (and maybe my only, I can't recall). Honestly, this close to an election predictions are pretty cheap anyway, but oh well.

I'll do the endorsement * too.

Arizona
Kyl* 56, Pederson 43

Connecticut
Lieberman 50, Lamont 39, Schlesinger* 10

Maryland
Steele* 50, Cardin 49

Michigan
Stabenow 54, Bouchard* 45

Minnesota
Klobuchar 53, Kennedy* 44

Missouri
Talent* 51, McCaskill 49

Montana
Burns* 50, Tester 49

New Jersey
Menendez 51, Kean* 49

Ohio
Brown 52, DeWine* 47

Pennsylvania
Casey 54, Santorum* 46

Rhode Island
Whitehouse 53, Chafee* 47

Tennessee
Corker* 54, Ford 46

Virginia
Allen* 51, Webb 49

Washington
Cantwell 55, McGavick* 45
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Gabu
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2006, 07:51:20 PM »
My final Senate predictions...

...will not be appearing until the day before the election. Tongue

A week is a long time.
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J. J.
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2006, 08:01:43 PM »
Quote from: nini2287 on October 31, 2006, 11:24:52 AM
I know the title of the thread says "Final", but my deadline for updating my picks is next Tuesday at midnight.

I'm also putting a * next to my endorsed candidates

Arizona
Kyl* 54, Pederson 46

Connecticut
Lieberman* 49, Lamont 42, Schlesinger 9

Maryland
Cardin 53, Steele* 47

Michigan
Stabenow* 55, Bouchard 45

Minnesota
Klobuchar 56, Kennedy 44

Missouri
Talent >50, McCaskill <50

Montana
Tester* 53, Burns 45

New Jersey
Menendez 52, Kean* 48

Ohio
Brown 54, DeWine* 46

Pennsylvania
Casey* 55, Santorum 45

Rhode Island
Chafee* >50, Whitehouse <50 (still holding out hope)

Tennessee
Corker* 52, Ford 48

Virginia
Allen 52, Webb* 48

Washington
Cantwell* 55, McGavick 45

In general, I agree, but I think Kean wins by less that 1% in NJ.  Lieberman breaks 50%.
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2006, 08:11:33 PM »
My map will remain the pretty much the same except Im changing TN to a Corker win and VA to a Webb win.
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2006, 08:13:28 PM »
Quote from: AuH2O on October 31, 2006, 07:49:12 PM
This will be my last prediction (and maybe my only, I can't recall). Honestly, this close to an election predictions are pretty cheap anyway, but oh well.

I'll do the endorsement * too.

Arizona
Kyl* 56, Pederson 43

Connecticut
Lieberman 50, Lamont 39, Schlesinger* 10

Maryland
Steele* 50, Cardin 49

Michigan
Stabenow 54, Bouchard* 45

Minnesota
Klobuchar 53, Kennedy* 44

Missouri
Talent* 51, McCaskill 49

Montana
Burns* 50, Tester 49

New Jersey
Menendez 51, Kean* 49

Ohio
Brown 52, DeWine* 47

Pennsylvania
Casey 54, Santorum* 46

Rhode Island
Whitehouse 53, Chafee* 47

Tennessee
Corker* 54, Ford 46

Virginia
Allen* 51, Webb 49

Washington
Cantwell 55, McGavick* 45


So you think Steele will win in MD.  What about Ehrlich... final prediction on that race?
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AuH2O
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2006, 08:18:17 PM »
Haven't made one officially but I'll say O'Malley wins by 2-3 pts.
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Boris
boris78
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2006, 08:19:07 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on October 31, 2006, 06:20:58 PM

Where does the other 2% go? There is no real organized write in effort.

Whoops, I was unaware that the green party candidate had not gained enough signatures for ballot status. Change that to Casey 55-45.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2006, 08:25:47 PM »
Quote from: Boris on October 31, 2006, 08:19:07 PM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on October 31, 2006, 06:20:58 PM

Where does the other 2% go? There is no real organized write in effort.

Whoops, I was unaware that the green party candidate had not gained enough signatures for ballot status. Change that to Casey 55-45.

So Green is off the ballot and Santorum gets the Green vote?  Tongue
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nickshepDEM
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2006, 08:36:29 PM »
I'll do the endorsement * too.

Arizona
Kyl 54, Pederson* 46

Connecticut
Lieberman 47, Lamont* 45, Schlesinger 10

Maryland
Steele 47, Cardin* 51, Zeese 2

Michigan
Stabenow* 54, Bouchard 46

Minnesota
Klobuchar* 57, Kennedy 43

Missouri
Talent 50.5, McCaskill* 49.5

Montana
Burns 49, Tester* 51

New Jersey
Menendez* 53, Kean 47

Ohio
Brown* 52, DeWine 47

Pennsylvania
Casey* 54, Santorum 46

Rhode Island
Whitehouse* 51, Chafee 49

Tennessee
Corker* 55, Ford 45

Virginia
Allen 49, Webb* 51

Washington
Cantwell* 54, McGavick 46
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Boris
boris78
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« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2006, 09:21:54 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on October 31, 2006, 08:25:47 PM
Quote from: Boris on October 31, 2006, 08:19:07 PM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on October 31, 2006, 06:20:58 PM

Where does the other 2% go? There is no real organized write in effort.

Whoops, I was unaware that the green party candidate had not gained enough signatures for ballot status. Change that to Casey 55-45.

So Green is off the ballot and Santorum gets the Green vote?  Tongue

Nah, I just figured that 57% is way too high for Casey Tongue
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2006, 01:17:06 PM »
49-49-2
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2006, 01:25:12 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2006, 08:47:28 AM by Gov. PolNut »
Arizona
Kyl 52.5, Pederson* 47.5

Connecticut
Lieberman 49, Lamont* 43, Schlesinger 8

Maryland
Steele 47, Cardin* 51, Zeese 2

Michigan
Stabenow* 56, Bouchard 44

Minnesota
Klobuchar* 55, Kennedy 45

Missouri
Talent 49.9, McCaskill* 50.1

Montana
Burns 48, Tester* 52

New Jersey
Menendez* 53, Kean 47

Ohio
Brown* 54, DeWine 46

Pennsylvania
Casey* 54.5, Santorum 45.5

Rhode Island
Whitehouse* 53.3, Chafee 46.7

Tennessee
Corker* 51.2, Ford 48.8

Virginia
Allen 49.7, Webb* 50.3

Washington
Cantwell* 54, McGavick 46
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Rob
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« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2006, 01:30:20 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2006, 12:42:49 AM by Rob »
Arizona
Kyl 55, Pederson 44

Connecticut
Lieberman 46, Lamont 41, Schlesinger 12

Maryland
Cardin 52, Steele 46, Zeese 2

Michigan
Stabenow 56, Bouchard 44

Minnesota
Klobuchar 53, Kennedy 42, Fitzgerald 5

Missouri
Talent 50, McCaskill 49

Montana
Tester 51, Burns 48

New Jersey
Menendez 52, Kean 47

Ohio
Brown 54, DeWine 45

Pennsylvania
Casey 55, Santorum 45

Rhode Island
Whitehouse 54, Chafee 46

Tennessee
Corker 52, Ford 48

Virginia
Allen 51, Webb 48

Washington
Cantwell 53, McGavick 42, Guthrie 4
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Torie
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« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2006, 10:00:55 PM »
I might as well go out on a limb, just for fun. Kyl, Burns, Corker and Steele win, and Kean, Santorum, Chafee, Talent and Allen lose. Yes, I know, the odds are currently against Burns and Steele, but whatever. Cantwell, Stabenow, the Dem in Minnesota, and Joemomentum of course win.
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BRTD
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« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2006, 10:02:57 PM »
Quote from: Rob on November 01, 2006, 01:30:20 PM
Minnesota
Klobuchar 53, Kennedy 42, Fitzpatrick 5

It's Fitzgerald. He's not that worthless congressman in PA Smiley
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