Tradesports Senate numbers

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

MO back as critical seat

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, PA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
OH 94.8
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
NJ 91.0
RI 79.9
MD 72.0
MT 67.9
VA 66.0
MO 55.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 15.0
AZ 10.5
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 8.8 Lamont

GOP House: 22.0%
GOP Senate: 76.9%

[Mr. Morden]

The problem is that the Democrats need all 5 of those marginal seats. Those probabilities are somewhat independent of each other (of course they're also somewhat correlated).

Also, as time goes on, the probabilities become more independent, since the less time there is left, the lower the chances of some big event swinging all of the seats in the same direction.  The more independent the races become, the harder it is for either party to win all of them.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Updated again

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, OH, WV, WI
MI 94.9
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
PA 91.0
NJ 86.8
MT 75.0
RI 73.0
MD 72.0
VA 62.0
MO 57.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 12.0
AZ 10.5
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 7.0 Lamont

GOP House: 21.0%
GOP Senate: 72.3%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Did something happen in VA? It just dropped to 52%. Maybe people think that the RNC voter intimidation and lies give Allen a much better shot?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/11/6/161948/452

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Did something happen in VA? It just dropped to 52%. Maybe people think that the RNC voter intimidation and lies give Allen a much better shot?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/11/6/161948/452

no, they just read my posts 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Did something happen in VA? It just dropped to 52%. Maybe people think that the RNC voter intimidation and lies give Allen a much better shot?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/11/6/161948/452

no, they just read my posts 

Actually I think it might be just random noise or something. The Republican odds of retaining the Senate dropped to 66.7% at the same time, without much else changing I think.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

More movement.

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
PA 94.9
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
MI 92.1
OH 91.3
NJ 86.8
MT 75.0
MD 69.1
RI 65.0
VA 55.0 (DUAL CRITICAL SEAT, DEMS NEED BOTH)
MO 55.0 (DUAL CRITICAL SEAT, DEMS NEED BOTH)
TN 14.0
AZ 10.5
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 9.0 Lamont

GOP House: 21.9%
GOP Senate: 71.0%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Updated again

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
MN 92.9
PA 92.3
WA 92.2
MI 92.2
OH 91.3
NJ 88.8
MD 77.0
MT 74.5
RI 64.0
MO 56.8
VA 50.1 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 16.0
AZ 10.5
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 9.0 Lamont

GOP House: 18.6%
GOP Senate: 70.0%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

More movement in all directions

Updated again

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
NJ 94.0
MN 92.9
PA 92.3
WA 92.2
MI 92.2
OH 91.3
MD 77.0
MT 74.5
RI 69.9
VA 63.3
MO 56.3 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 17.9
AZ 7.9
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 7.5 Lamont

GOP House: 20.0%
GOP Senate: 67.1%

[Gabu]

Wow, these guys really can't make up their minds.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

GOP Senate is tanking, now 63%.
Any news that might be causing this?
Never mind, back up to 67%, this is on crack.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, these guys really can't make up their minds.

I'm sure there's plenty money to be made with a clever algorithm. I have a friend who works on similar stuff but with the real market (stocks).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Tradesports is really going haywire

Most active shares here:
http://www.tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
PA 94.7
NJ 94.0
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
MI 92.2
OH 91.3
MT 83.0
MD 77.0
RI 64.8
MO 62.0
VA 59.9 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 17.9
AZ 10.5
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 9.0 Lamont

GOP House: 29.0%
GOP Senate: 65.1%

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I'm shocked Montana is so solid again...though I hear the early voting went pretty damn bad for Burns.

[sethm0]

I'm shocked Montana is so solid again...though I hear the early voting went pretty damn bad for Burns.

 Where'd you hear this?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Tradesports is really slow today.

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
PA 94.4
NJ 94.2
OH 93.6
MN 92.9
MT 75.0
MD 70.0
RI 68.0
MO 63.0
VA 61.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 14.5
AZ 7.9
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 7.1 Lamont


GOP House: 17.5%
GOP Senate: 72.0%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Updated

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
PA 94.4
NJ 94.2
OH 93.6
MN 92.9
RI 69.5
MT 65.0
MD 62.0
VA 59.0
MO 57.5 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 19.0
AZ 7.9

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, NV, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: Safe CFL


GOP House: 16.2%
GOP Senate: 70.0%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Last pre eastern KY and IN update. Webb surge in VA.


Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
PA 94.4
NJ 94.2
OH 93.6
MN 92.9
RI 70.0
VA 70.0
MT 62.8
MD 60.9
MO 57.5 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 21.0
AZ 8.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, NV, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: Lamont 5.0


GOP House: 12.5%
GOP Senate: 68.0%

[© Tweed the Younger]

TradeSports has the GOP Senate stock down around 58% now, a record low.  I hope this isn't a replay of 2004 but it looks like it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

New update

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, PA, WA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
NJ 93.9
OH 93.6
MN 92.9
VA 75.0
MT 74.9
RI 72.0
VA 70.0
MD 70.0
MO 60.9 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 19.2
AZ 12.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, NV, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: Lamont 15.0

And the control indexes are record lows
GOP House: 9.6% 
GOP Senate: 55.0%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

VA back down

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, PA, WA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
NJ 93.9
OH 93.6
MN 92.9
VA 75.0
MT 74.9
RI 72.0
MD 70.0
MO 60.9
VA 52.8 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 19.0
AZ 12.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, NV, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: Lamont 15.0

GOP House: 8.0%
GOP Senate: 65.0%