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Author Topic: Tradesports Senate numbers  (Read 4509 times)
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jfern
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« on: October 31, 2006, 03:00:16 pm »
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From best Democrat to best Republican in terms of Democratic odds.

Safe is >=95%

Safe Democrat: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, MI, NE, NM, NY, ND, PA, WV, WI
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
OH 90.0
RI 90.0
MT 82.7
NJ 81.4
MD 76.4
VA 55.0
MO 47.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 30.0
AZ 11.0
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY



Other races:
VT Safe Sanders
CT 10.0 for Lamont

http://www.tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=23030&eventSelect=23030&updateList=true&showExpired=false#
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2006, 03:12:14 pm »
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I've noticed just within the last day or two that, in most of the races where one candidate had been leading but it had been kind of close, the favored candidate has now started pulling away.  Menendez in NJ, Tester in MT, Whitehouse in RI, even Corker in TN has started to build up a bit of a lead.  I'm assuming that, with just one week left, people are coming to the conclusion that there isn't enough time left for the trailing candidate to rebound.  OTOH, you have MO (which is now, and has pretty much always been, a near tie) and VA (which has now moved into a near tie, based on the recent polling).  The only other race that seems to be tightening is MD, which still isn't as close as MO, VA, or TN, but which does seem to show a little momentum for Steele on Tradesports.
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2006, 03:16:08 pm »
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Santorum's paying at a 12/1 price, everyone.  It's a no-brainer!
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2006, 06:32:10 pm »
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Update.

Safe Democrat: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
MN 92.9
PA 92.8
WA 92.2
OH 91.0
MI 90.1
NJ 87.8
RI 87.3
MT 75.0
MD 68.0
VA 55.0
MO 51.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 35.0
AZ 15.0
NV 5.0

VT Sanders Safe
CT Lamont 6.1
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2006, 10:25:31 pm »
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On a related note, the Tradesports odds for the GOP retaining the House are now at an all time low of 25.1%.  As with the Senate, I wouldn't attribute this to any big movement in the polls....just to the fact that the GOP is down, and time is running out for them to change things.  Still, the way many prognosticators are talking, you'd think the odds of the GOP holding the House were significantly *lower* than 25%.
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jfern
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2006, 03:12:58 am »
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New numbers

Safe Democrat: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
OH 94.8
WA 93.0
MN 92.9
PA 92.0
RI 90.4
MI 90.1
NJ 86.0
MD 68.2
MT 67.0
VA 57.0
MO 51.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 25.0
AZ 16.0
NV 5.0

VT Sanders Safe
CT Lamont 4.4
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2006, 10:55:51 am »
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New numbers

Safe Democrat: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
OH 94.8
WA 93.0
MN 92.9
PA 92.0
RI 90.4
MI 90.1
NJ 86.0
MD 68.2
MT 67.0
VA 57.0
MO 51.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 25.0
AZ 16.0
NV 5.0

VT Sanders Safe
CT Lamont 4.4

These are basically the percent chances of a Democrat outcome in the races, right? If so, I really am surprised that Webb is given a 57% chance to win the race because that seems high to me.
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2006, 11:25:36 am »
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New numbers

Safe Democrat: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
OH 94.8
WA 93.0
MN 92.9
PA 92.0
RI 90.4
MI 90.1
NJ 86.0
MD 68.2
MT 67.0
VA 57.0
MO 51.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 25.0
AZ 16.0
NV 5.0

VT Sanders Safe
CT Lamont 4.4

These are basically the percent chances of a Democrat outcome in the races, right? If so, I really am surprised that Webb is given a 57% chance to win the race because that seems high to me.

Correct. It's based on how people are willing to bet, of course, which doesn't necessarily correspond to the reality of what's likely to happen. But I would say Webb having a 57 percent chance isn't far off personally. I guess it all depends on whether you buy into the idea of a "wave".
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2006, 03:25:06 pm »
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The Tradesports odds on GOP retention of the House is now in complete freefall.  It's now at an all time low of 18%, whereas it was about double that just a week ago.  Again, I think this is because people had been thinking that the GOP still had time to turn this around, but now it's too late.  With only three days left, there just isn't enough time for the GOP to make a comeback.
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2006, 03:31:23 pm »
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I'm kind of shocked they are still given a 69% of holding the Senate...but I guess it is because TN has fallen off the map for Dems and MT has come back into play for the GOP.
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2006, 03:34:07 pm »
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Correct. It's based on how people are willing to bet, of course, which doesn't necessarily correspond to the reality of what's likely to happen. But I would say Webb having a 57 percent chance isn't far off personally. I guess it all depends on whether you buy into the idea of a "wave".

I think if I had to give pro-Democrat odds (because I see Allen retaining his seat because the state is still GOP-friendly and Allen hasn't voted in a way that it that outside of the majority of voters in VA), I'd lower them to like 53%-- just a bare positive edge.  I can't see Webb beating Allen by more than a point if he does beat Allen-- though maybe you could say that the dynamics that would have to be in place to cause Allen to lose could be of the "wave" nature that you refer to and that the result of that would be a much more expanded margin of victory than seems likely.
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2006, 04:21:26 pm »
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I'm kind of shocked they are still given a 69% of holding the Senate...but I guess it is because TN has fallen off the map for Dems and MT has come back into play for the GOP.

It should be more like 80% if Montana, Virginia, and Missouri are considered tossups/slight lean D.  Remember, we have to win all 3.
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2006, 09:01:43 pm »
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More movement

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
OH 94.8
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
MI 90.1
PA 90.0
RI 90.0
NJ 89.9
MD 73.0
MT 63.8
VA 59.0
MO 54.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 18.0
AZ 13.0
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Safe Indy: VT
Safe Connecticut For Liebermanian: CT

GOP House: 21.0%
GOP Senate: 68.5%

« Last Edit: November 04, 2006, 09:03:55 pm by jfern »Logged
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2006, 09:09:09 pm »
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More movement

MT 63.8
VA 59.0
MO 54.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 18.0
AZ 13.0
NV 5.0

GOP Senate: 68.5%



So, Ford is freefalling and Burns is making a late push. Yeah, I'll buy that.  I still don't understand what would cause movement of any kind in VA.
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2006, 09:16:09 pm »
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VA at 59% chance of switching?! That's awesome. Allen needs to go as badly as Santorum and Burns.
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I'm still going out on a limb here and predicting that Tom Vilsack will eventually become the Dem nominee. 

The others--Edwards, Hillary, and Obama, have peaked WAY too early

THE BUCKS ARE GOING TO THE FINAL FOUR!!!

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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2006, 09:22:10 pm »
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MT 63.8
VA 59.0
MO 54.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)

GOP Senate: 68.5%

I know this isn't a completely accurate analysis, but if everything else falls the way it should, shouldn't the Dem chances of taking the Senate be close to .638*.59*.54?  That's 20.3% meaning the GOP senate stock should be selling at ~10 points above where it is.

I'd have to buy that stock at a 68.5.
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2006, 09:24:16 pm »
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MT 63.8
VA 59.0
MO 54.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)

GOP Senate: 68.5%

I know this isn't a completely accurate analysis, but if everything else falls the way it should, shouldn't the Dem chances of taking the Senate be close to .638*.59*.54?  That's 20.3% meaning the GOP senate stock should be selling at ~10 points above where it is.

I'd have to buy that stock at a 68.5.

No, the probabilities aren't independent.
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2006, 09:28:16 pm »
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No, the probabilities aren't independent.

Exactly.  You can only multiply the probabilities together if the events are completely independent of one another.  But almost every election sees a minor shift towards one party or the other from the pre-election polls to the actual result.  So there's a decent chance that all of the closest races will go the same way.....at least, a better chance than you'd get just by multiplying the probabilities.
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2006, 01:15:31 pm »
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Just today, for (I think) the first time on Tradesports, Webb is now rated as having a better chance of winning than Tester.  That is, both MT and VA are still listed as slight advantage-Dem, but MT is now rated as being closer than VA.
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2006, 01:59:04 pm »
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Just today, for (I think) the first time on Tradesports, Webb is now rated as having a better chance of winning than Tester.  That is, both MT and VA are still listed as slight advantage-Dem, but MT is now rated as being closer than VA.


Allen's biggest problem is the high number of male voters who will vote for Webb. I think Webb is by far a better bet than Tester.
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2006, 05:40:52 pm »
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Latest.


Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NJ, NM, NY, ND, PA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
OH 94.8
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
RI 72.0
MD 72.0
MT 63.0
VA 60.5
MO 58.2 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 20.0
AZ 10.5
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 8.0 Lamont

GOP House: 20.5%
GOP Senate: 72.1%
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« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2006, 11:11:47 pm »
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Gallup causes some more movement. VA replaces MO as the critical seat.

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, PA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
OH 94.0
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
NJ 90.2
RI 79.9
MD 73.0
MT 68.0
MO 60.0
VA 55.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
AZ 12.0
TN 10.0
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 8.0 Lamont

GOP House: 21.6%
GOP Senate: 75.0%

« Last Edit: November 06, 2006, 02:20:50 am by jfern »Logged
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« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2006, 11:30:08 pm »
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More movement


Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, PA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
OH 94.8
NJ 94.0
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
RI 79.9
MD 70.0
MT 68.0
VA 60.0
MO 55.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 20.0
AZ 12.0
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 8.0 Lamont

GOP House: 22.0%
GOP Senate: 74.9%

Why are MO and VA increasing in the chances of a Democratic victory while the Senate as a whole is increasing in the chances of a Republican retention?

Someone on Tradesports appears to be hedging his bets.
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2006, 02:16:54 am »
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Why are MO and VA increasing in the chances of a Democratic victory while the Senate as a whole is increasing in the chances of a Republican retention?

Someone on Tradesports appears to be hedging his bets.

Basically as things stand right now, there are a lot of marginally lean Democrat seats, and the Democrats need EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM.

We have basically 3 classes of seats:

Basically safe Democrat: MI, OH, NJ, MN, WA
Marginally Democrat: RI, MD, MT, VA, MO
Basically safe Republican: TN, AZ, NV

The problem is that the Democrats need all 5 of those marginal seats. Those probabilities are somewhat independent of each other (of course they're also somewhat correlated).
« Last Edit: November 06, 2006, 02:19:32 am by jfern »Logged
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2006, 02:29:56 am »
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More movement


Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, PA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
OH 94.8
NJ 94.0
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
RI 79.9
MD 70.0
MT 68.0
VA 60.0
MO 55.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 20.0
AZ 12.0
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 8.0 Lamont

GOP House: 22.0%
GOP Senate: 74.9%

Why are MO and VA increasing in the chances of a Democratic victory while the Senate as a whole is increasing in the chances of a Republican retention?

Someone on Tradesports appears to be hedging his bets.

Simple math.  the chances of TN & MO have risen at a smaller rate than the TN chances have dropped.  4 have been pretty much in th Dem column, and it came down to Dems winning 2 of the remaining 3, now it looks more likely they will have to win 2 of 2.  Even though their chances of winning MO & VA have increased, they must win both to retain the senate, while previously if they lost one of those they still could have gained control of the Senate.
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