Tradesports Senate numbers

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Santorum's paying at a 12/1 price, everyone.  It's a no-brainer!

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I'm kind of shocked they are still given a 69% of holding the Senate...but I guess it is because TN has fallen off the map for Dems and MT has come back into play for the GOP.

It should be more like 80% if Montana, Virginia, and Missouri are considered tossups/slight lean D.  Remember, we have to win all 3.

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MT 63.8
VA 59.0
MO 54.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)

GOP Senate: 68.5%

I know this isn't a completely accurate analysis, but if everything else falls the way it should, shouldn't the Dem chances of taking the Senate be close to .638*.59*.54?  That's 20.3% meaning the GOP senate stock should be selling at ~10 points above where it is.

I'd have to buy that stock at a 68.5.

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TradeSports has the GOP Senate stock down around 58% now, a record low.  I hope this isn't a replay of 2004 but it looks like it.