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Author Topic: Tradesports Senate numbers  (Read 5984 times)
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« on: October 31, 2006, 03:00:16 PM »
From best Democrat to best Republican in terms of Democratic odds.

Safe is >=95%

Safe Democrat: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, MI, NE, NM, NY, ND, PA, WV, WI
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
OH 90.0
RI 90.0
MT 82.7
NJ 81.4
MD 76.4
VA 55.0
MO 47.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 30.0
AZ 11.0
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY



Other races:
VT Safe Sanders
CT 10.0 for Lamont

http://www.tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=23030&eventSelect=23030&updateList=true&showExpired=false#
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2006, 06:32:10 PM »
Update.

Safe Democrat: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
MN 92.9
PA 92.8
WA 92.2
OH 91.0
MI 90.1
NJ 87.8
RI 87.3
MT 75.0
MD 68.0
VA 55.0
MO 51.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 35.0
AZ 15.0
NV 5.0

VT Sanders Safe
CT Lamont 6.1
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2006, 03:12:58 AM »
New numbers

Safe Democrat: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
OH 94.8
WA 93.0
MN 92.9
PA 92.0
RI 90.4
MI 90.1
NJ 86.0
MD 68.2
MT 67.0
VA 57.0
MO 51.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 25.0
AZ 16.0
NV 5.0

VT Sanders Safe
CT Lamont 4.4
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2006, 09:01:43 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2006, 09:03:55 PM by jfern »
More movement

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
OH 94.8
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
MI 90.1
PA 90.0
RI 90.0
NJ 89.9
MD 73.0
MT 63.8
VA 59.0
MO 54.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 18.0
AZ 13.0
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Safe Indy: VT
Safe Connecticut For Liebermanian: CT

GOP House: 21.0%
GOP Senate: 68.5%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2006, 09:24:16 PM »
Quote from: © Boss Tweed on November 04, 2006, 09:22:10 PM
Quote from: jfern on November 04, 2006, 09:01:43 PM
MT 63.8
VA 59.0
MO 54.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)

GOP Senate: 68.5%

I know this isn't a completely accurate analysis, but if everything else falls the way it should, shouldn't the Dem chances of taking the Senate be close to .638*.59*.54?  That's 20.3% meaning the GOP senate stock should be selling at ~10 points above where it is.

I'd have to buy that stock at a 68.5.

No, the probabilities aren't independent.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2006, 05:40:52 PM »
Latest.


Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NJ, NM, NY, ND, PA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
OH 94.8
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
RI 72.0
MD 72.0
MT 63.0
VA 60.5
MO 58.2 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 20.0
AZ 10.5
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 8.0 Lamont

GOP House: 20.5%
GOP Senate: 72.1%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2006, 11:11:47 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2006, 02:20:50 AM by jfern »
Gallup causes some more movement. VA replaces MO as the critical seat.

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, PA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
OH 94.0
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
NJ 90.2
RI 79.9
MD 73.0
MT 68.0
MO 60.0
VA 55.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
AZ 12.0
TN 10.0
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 8.0 Lamont

GOP House: 21.6%
GOP Senate: 75.0%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2006, 02:16:54 AM »
« Edited: November 06, 2006, 02:19:32 AM by jfern »
Quote from: Gabu on November 05, 2006, 11:30:08 PM

Why are MO and VA increasing in the chances of a Democratic victory while the Senate as a whole is increasing in the chances of a Republican retention?

Someone on Tradesports appears to be hedging his bets.

Basically as things stand right now, there are a lot of marginally lean Democrat seats, and the Democrats need EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM.

We have basically 3 classes of seats:

Basically safe Democrat: MI, OH, NJ, MN, WA
Marginally Democrat: RI, MD, MT, VA, MO
Basically safe Republican: TN, AZ, NV

The problem is that the Democrats need all 5 of those marginal seats. Those probabilities are somewhat independent of each other (of course they're also somewhat correlated).
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2006, 04:35:56 AM »
MO back as critical seat

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, PA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
OH 94.8
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
NJ 91.0
RI 79.9
MD 72.0
MT 67.9
VA 66.0
MO 55.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 15.0
AZ 10.5
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 8.8 Lamont

GOP House: 22.0%
GOP Senate: 76.9%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2006, 04:30:01 PM »
Updated again

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, OH, WV, WI
MI 94.9
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
PA 91.0
NJ 86.8
MT 75.0
RI 73.0
MD 72.0
VA 62.0
MO 57.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 12.0
AZ 10.5
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 7.0 Lamont

GOP House: 21.0%
GOP Senate: 72.3%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2006, 04:50:36 PM »
Did something happen in VA? It just dropped to 52%. Maybe people think that the RNC voter intimidation and lies give Allen a much better shot?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/11/6/161948/452
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2006, 05:23:58 PM »
Quote from: jmfcst on November 06, 2006, 04:57:18 PM
Quote from: jfern on November 06, 2006, 04:50:36 PM
Did something happen in VA? It just dropped to 52%. Maybe people think that the RNC voter intimidation and lies give Allen a much better shot?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/11/6/161948/452

no, they just read my posts  Smiley

Actually I think it might be just random noise or something. The Republican odds of retaining the Senate dropped to 66.7% at the same time, without much else changing I think.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2006, 08:13:16 PM »
More movement.

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
PA 94.9
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
MI 92.1
OH 91.3
NJ 86.8
MT 75.0
MD 69.1
RI 65.0
VA 55.0 (DUAL CRITICAL SEAT, DEMS NEED BOTH)
MO 55.0 (DUAL CRITICAL SEAT, DEMS NEED BOTH)
TN 14.0
AZ 10.5
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 9.0 Lamont

GOP House: 21.9%
GOP Senate: 71.0%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2006, 09:56:56 PM »
Updated again

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
MN 92.9
PA 92.3
WA 92.2
MI 92.2
OH 91.3
NJ 88.8
MD 77.0
MT 74.5
RI 64.0
MO 56.8
VA 50.1 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 16.0
AZ 10.5
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 9.0 Lamont

GOP House: 18.6%
GOP Senate: 70.0%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2006, 11:36:22 PM »
More movement in all directions

Updated again

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
NJ 94.0
MN 92.9
PA 92.3
WA 92.2
MI 92.2
OH 91.3
MD 77.0
MT 74.5
RI 69.9
VA 63.3
MO 56.3 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 17.9
AZ 7.9
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 7.5 Lamont

GOP House: 20.0%
GOP Senate: 67.1%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2006, 12:06:50 AM »
« Edited: November 07, 2006, 12:12:10 AM by jfern »
GOP Senate is tanking, now 63%.
Any news that might be causing this?
Never mind, back up to 67%, this is on crack.



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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2006, 12:07:59 AM »
Quote from: Gabu on November 06, 2006, 11:42:29 PM
Wow, these guys really can't make up their minds.

I'm sure there's plenty money to be made with a clever algorithm. I have a friend who works on similar stuff but with the real market (stocks).
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2006, 12:26:56 AM »
Tradesports is really going haywire

Most active shares here:
http://www.tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
PA 94.7
NJ 94.0
MN 92.9
WA 92.2
MI 92.2
OH 91.3
MT 83.0
MD 77.0
RI 64.8
MO 62.0
VA 59.9 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 17.9
AZ 10.5
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 9.0 Lamont

GOP House: 29.0%
GOP Senate: 65.1%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2006, 02:49:56 PM »
Tradesports is really slow today.

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
PA 94.4
NJ 94.2
OH 93.6
MN 92.9
MT 75.0
MD 70.0
RI 68.0
MO 63.0
VA 61.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 14.5
AZ 7.9
NV 5.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: 7.1 Lamont


GOP House: 17.5%
GOP Senate: 72.0%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2006, 04:30:53 PM »
Updated

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
PA 94.4
NJ 94.2
OH 93.6
MN 92.9
RI 69.5
MT 65.0
MD 62.0
VA 59.0
MO 57.5 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 19.0
AZ 7.9

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, NV, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: Safe CFL


GOP House: 16.2%
GOP Senate: 70.0%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2006, 05:56:06 PM »
Last pre eastern KY and IN update. Webb surge in VA.


Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
PA 94.4
NJ 94.2
OH 93.6
MN 92.9
RI 70.0
VA 70.0
MT 62.8
MD 60.9
MO 57.5 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 21.0
AZ 8.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, NV, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: Lamont 5.0


GOP House: 12.5%
GOP Senate: 68.0%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #21 on: November 07, 2006, 07:17:18 PM »
New update

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, PA, WA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
NJ 93.9
OH 93.6
MN 92.9
VA 75.0
MT 74.9
RI 72.0
VA 70.0
MD 70.0
MO 60.9 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 19.2
AZ 12.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, NV, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: Lamont 15.0

And the control indexes are record lows
GOP House: 9.6% 
GOP Senate: 55.0%
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36
« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2006, 08:03:22 PM »
VA back down

Safe Democratic: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, PA, WA, WV, WI
MI 94.9
NJ 93.9
OH 93.6
MN 92.9
VA 75.0
MT 74.9
RI 72.0
MD 70.0
MO 60.9
VA 52.8 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 19.0
AZ 12.0

Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, NV, TX, UT, WY

Others:
VT: Safe Indy
CT: Lamont 15.0

GOP House: 8.0%
GOP Senate: 65.0%
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