Zogby/Reuters: Dems lead in 12/15 key house races
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  Zogby/Reuters: Dems lead in 12/15 key house races
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Author Topic: Zogby/Reuters: Dems lead in 12/15 key house races  (Read 1625 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« on: November 01, 2006, 08:15:20 AM »

http://elections.us.reuters.com/
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2006, 09:17:39 AM »

Woot. Two more polls for IN-02 and IN-09

Dave
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Beet
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2006, 09:28:36 AM »

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This is a nice poll for Dems but Bachmann is the nuttiest out of all the Republicans in the poll.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2006, 09:29:51 AM »

Because Wetterling is a stupid whore.
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Beet
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2006, 09:32:33 AM »

Because Wetterling is a stupid whore.

That's very constructive AuH2O. Coming from a guy who thinks P.W. Botha was the
"last real President of South Africa" it's very precious.
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Alcon
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2006, 12:42:12 PM »

Zogby congressional polling.
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okstate
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2006, 03:01:04 PM »

With the obvious caveat that Zogby is not a very good "pollster," this data shows Democratic control of the House is almost inevitable.

This series of polls didn't test TX-22, PA-07, IN-08, PA-10, FL-16, OH-15 or NY-24, all of which are projected to fall to the Democrats. FL-13, WI-08, CT-05, AZ-05, OH-01, NY-26, and FL-22 are probably tossups and weren't polled.

Against this argument it could be said that GA-08, GA-12, and IL-08 could flip to Republicans and weren't polled. True enough. But if Dems have 12 pickups from these polls and another 7 leaning their way, the 7 or so tossups don't even really matter except as a means of expanding upon the likely Democratic majority.

Yes, Zogby's polling is bad. But some of these races are so far gone that even Zogby can call them correctly. If Zack Space, for one, is really up 20 points in OH-18 it would explain why the NRCC has dropped Joy Padgett. The same is true for the IA-01, where Zogby has found a huge swing to the Democrats. CO-07 is gone, too, and we already knew that AZ-08 and IN-02 were. The Republican Party has, at every turn this election season, been forced into tactical retreat.

Maybe a "wave" isn't going to occur. I don't think it matters much at this point. After a while, you retreat from so many contests that you're going to lose the majority by a substantial amount regardless of whether a wave occurs or not. Speaker Pelosi is becoming ever more likely.

In a non-wave election the GOP is going to lose 20 or 25 seats. If polling continues to indicate, as it has since the Foley scandal broke, trending toward the Democrats, that will be 30 seats a week from now on Election Day.

In the Senate the same story is playing out. Spend a few million in New Jersey, but Menendez increases his lead. The firewall of Ohio is a towering inferno for the Republicans now, with Blackwell and DeWine headed for an embarrassing landslide defeat. The only concievable positive for Ohio Republicans is maybe Jean Schmidt hanging on, but I personally think she's more of a liability in Congress than an asset.

Virginia, another firewall, has now seemingly turned to give Webb the lead. Burns becomes competitive again but instead the NRSC puts money into Michigan??? How does any of this make sense? Both parties have used up millions of dollars in Missouri but neither candidate has a lead.
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jokerman
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2006, 05:26:16 PM »

I didn't think the Democrats had the ability this year to pull off control of the house.  I thought that would require a national pulling together and the production of a solid, firm message on the national level.  Maybe I'll be proven wrong.
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Beet
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2006, 05:55:14 PM »

I didn't think the Democrats had the ability this year to pull off control of the house.  I thought that would require a national pulling together and the production of a solid, firm message on the national level.  Maybe I'll be proven wrong.

Dems are completely united this year, and we have a clear agenda that has been spelled out by House leaders.

On Iraq, Democrats have been making the same set of points-
1- Begin to bring the troops home to tell the Iraqi government no blank check.
2- Clear benchmarks for them to meet or face real consequences.
3- Involve the international community to help deal with Iraq- it's not just our problem.
4- Allow the country to be administered in three separate areas while a political settlement is reached.

The 100 Hours plan sets the agenda for domestic policy:

Day One: Put new rules in place to "break the link between lobbyists and legislation."

Day Two: Enact all the recommendations made by the commission that investigated the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

Time remaining until 100 hours: Raise the minimum wage to $7.25 an hour, maybe in one step. Cut the interest rate on student loans in half. Allow the government to negotiate directly with the pharmaceutical companies for lower drug prices for Medicare patients.

Broaden the types of stem cell research allowed with federal funds _ "I hope with a veto-proof majority," she added in an Associated Press interview Thursday.

All the days after that: "Pay as you go," meaning no increasing the deficit, whether the issue is middle class tax relief, health care or some other priority.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2006, 10:45:28 PM »

Zogby....
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