General Election 2009 Boundaries : Confusion Ahoy?

[Harry Hayfield]

Electoral Calculus: Lab 346 Con 211 Lib Dem 64
Polling Report: Lab 344 Con 214 Lib Dem 63
UK-Elect: Lab 348 Con 213 Lib Dem 60

So how do I believe (and work from) if any?

[afleitch]

Nothing is perfect; but I prefer Anthony Wells' work over on pollingreport. When R&T compile their own stats I can't see them being much different than Wells.

[merseysider]

I think you just have to accept that working out notional constituency results on new boundaries in the UK is always going to be a hit and miss affair. If only it was like the US, where you could get actual results for each individual precinct!

Indeed it is getting harder, because of the growth of minor parties and independents on many local authorities, and also the growing strength of the LibDems in local elections which is often never reflected in general elections. Plus there are some areas, particularly small towns and rural districts with small wards where often each party does not contest every seat.

I think some of the notional 1992 election results which were used for the 1997 General Election were a bit dodgy - there were some new constituencies where the swing calculated appeared unrealistically large (like mine) or unrealistically small.

I'm going to work on the basis of UK Elect's predictions as I subscribe to them.