i]Likely Democratic
/i]
Michigan: Stabenow is currently up by double digits and will likely parlay her political savvy to a good sized victory. The NRSC has announced a 800k buy. Will it be enough to help Bouchard ride the ride of economic disenchantment, or will it be too little, too late?
Washington: McGavick never recovered from DUIgate. Things are so bleak for McGavick that the NRSC choose to invest in Michigan instead of in Washington.
Ohio: Every cycle, an incumbent loses reelection because of the greater political climate.Mike DeWine is on pace to lose in Ohio because of the myriad of factors plaguing Ohio Republicans. The RNC’s heavy ad campaign shows that this race is not yet a lost cause. How the mighty have fallen…DeWine is now down by 10-20 points.
Pennsylvania: Republicans are right in being sanguine about this race. Santorum is an excellent closer with a superb GOTV operation. If any incumbent deserves to win but will probably lose, it’s Rick Santorum. This race is moved up to Leaning Democratic because of the ineffectiveness of Santorum’s TV campaign. The Santorum ad staring “Casey’s campaign team” has been widely chastised by the local media in Pennsylvania.
This race is over.
Leaning Democratic:Maryland: If Martin O’Malley is winning by over 4%, Cardin’s safe. If Ehrlich barely loses or if Ehrlich wins, Cardin will be in for a dogfight. What percent of the black vote does Steele get in Prince George County could be the key to this race. This race is a longshot, but it is by no means a sealed deal for Cardin.
Montana: Conrad Burns has a prolonged case of foot in mouth disease. Being the number one recipient of cash of Jack Abramoff’s cash and facing a strong Democratic opponent in a state with resurgent Democratic party doesn’t help either. Burns will likely be the only Senate victim of Jack Abramoff. Burns is marking a rebound, but it’s too late for him to win.
Rhode Island: I completely disagree with the Chairman of the RNC’s assertion that Lincoln Chafee has won his toughest challenge. I think facing Sheldon Whitehouse in a Democratic year in the most Democratic state in the union will finally end Chafee’s political career. This race is now in Leaning Democratic
Slightly Leaning Democratic: New Jersey:The Democratic tendencies of New Jersey are virtually cancelled out by Menendez’s serious corruption problems. At the end of the day, Menendez’s vast warchest and the anti-Bush fervor in New Jersey will sink Tom Kean
Virginia: Can one word change the fundamental dynamics of a Senate race? Yes, if that word is “macaca.” This race may also come down to the battle of the campaign managers. Steve Jarding, the Harvard political scientist and engineer of Mark Warner’s win is facing off against Dick Wadhams, the genius behind the Thune triumph of Daschle and Senator Allard and Burns comeback victories. The only knock against Webb has been his inability to take the lead – four straight polls show him leading. Webb will win because of Virginia’s slow move left, the national climate, Allen’s blunders and the resurgence of the Warner/Kaine Democrats.
Super Duper Toss-up:Missouri: If there's a wave, it'll be felt in Missouri. Excluding Senator Bond’s easy 2004 reelection campaign, the Governor and Senate races in Missouri from 2000 till 2004 were decided by a margin of 49.3% to 49.1% in favor of the GOP. Jim Talent vs. Claire McCaskill is the quintessential toss-up that will come down to whichever ever campaign catches the slightest breeze on Election Day. I’ve got to give the edge to McCaskill based on the climate. If Talent wins it will be due to his risky decision to run ads on Black radio stations and his strength in the STL suburbs.
Toss-up/tilts Republican: Tennessee: Harold Ford has probably run the best campaign of any Senate candidate so far in this cycle. If ford can continue to hammer Corker for evading debates, cutting 9-11 funding, raising taxes, flip-flopping on abortion and being sued for a questionable land deal, Ford might have a shot. Tennessee is so conservative that an imploding, inept Republican candidate can beat a top-tier, charismatic orator like Harold Ford. Corker won this race when he fired his old campaign team and hired a group of Rove protégés. The Memphis Meltdown, the “Republicans don’t love god” flap and Corker’s $2 million infusion will allow him to fend off Ford. This race will be the one that got away from the DSCC.
Leaning Republican: Arizona:DSCC is in because of the Pederson GOTV operation and the national climate. It will take a massive wave for Pederson to win.
Likely Independents
Vermont is over. Connecticut: Ned Lamont’s only recent success has been writing himself checks. Alan Schlesinger will break 10% and Lamont will still lose.
Final Predicted Senate: Democratic: 49, GOP: 49, Independent: 2.
