Field poll: Schwarzenegger leads Angelides 49-33

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'll be the first to say we failed here. 4 more years of the Gropinator.

Schwarzenegger 49
Angelides 33
3rd parties 6
Undecided 12

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2216.pdf

Angelides and Schwarzenegger are tied in the bay area. Game over for Angelides.

In the yawner of a Senate race:
Feinstein leads Mountjoy 55-33

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm wondering how Arnold wins in a landslide when his approval ratings are crap.

[merseysider]

I'm wondering how Arnold wins in a landslide when his approval ratings are crap.

I'm no expert on California politics but I've always thought one of the most important (and least understood) rules of politics is that you DON'T have to be popular to get elected.

There is generally a presumption in favour of the incumbent and people tend to stick with what they've got unless the alternative is particularly attractive. From what I've heard Angelides comes across as a political-machine hack.

[Raoul Takemoto]

Herr Gropinator wins, unfortunately.  And he's raked in millions of private campaign contributions - while saying he was accountable only to the people. What a fraud.  Chargers owner/developer Alex Spanos has contributed 2.5 million, according to today's Stockton Record.

[Sam Spade]

I'm wondering how Arnold wins in a landslide when his approval ratings are crap.

55% approval, 37% disapproval is crap?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Last SUSA tracking puts him at #38 in the country, with net 8 disapproval. Still, that is an improvement over some previous numbers, but hardly great.

[Sam Spade]

Last SUSA tracking puts him at #38 in the country, with net 8 disapproval. Still, that is an improvement over some previous numbers, but hardly great.

Why are you comparing another poll to this one, when this one asks about approval numbers?  Is it because you believe that one is so right that this one could never be right?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I didn't click on that poll originally because I was at home and my computer hates PDFs. I'm at school now so I'll check it out.

OK, I see it has ratings there, though that is "favorability" ratings, not approval, not quite the same thing. And that is way out of sync with other approval ratings, all of which have been low. I haven't seen Arnold with actual positive "approval" ratings in 2 years.

[Sam Spade]

Since Field Poll is usually the only one to give us down-ballot and proposition numbers in CA, it's probably best to post these in the thread:

Down-ballot races.  Field Poll hasn't put up the crosstabs on their site yet, will post when then do:

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/local/states/california/northern_california/15919002.htm

Lt. Governor:
Garamendi (D): 44% (41)
McClintock (R): 43% (39)

Attorney General:
Brown (D): 56% (45)
Poochigian (R): 31% (30)

Treasurer:
Lockyer (D): 45%
Parrish (R): 26%

Secretary of State:
Bowen (D): 40%
MacPherson (R): 34%

Controller:
Chiang (D): 38%
Stickland (R): 31%

Insurance Commissioner:
Bustamante (D): 37%
Poizner (R): 46%

Prop. 85, 86, 87, 90 results released yesterday.  Old numbers in parentheses.

http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2217.pdf

Prop. 85: (notification of teen abortion)
Yes: 46% (45)
No: 43% (45)

Goes down to wire, probably fails narrowly.

Prop. 86: (cigarette tax initiative)
Yes: 45% (53)
No: 45% (40)

Most likely fails narrowly.

Prop. 87 (tax the oil producers)
Yes: 40% (44)
No: 44% (41)

This one fails.

Prop. 90 (eminent domain initiative)
Yes: 35% (46)
No: 42% (31)

This one fails.

Too bad they didn't poll the other ones.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Lt. Governor - Wow, how'd crazy McClintock end one 1 point up
Attorney General - I see Poochigian's ad right now as I'm posting this, even though he's down 25 points
Secretary of State - Good to see we're winning this one so far
Controller - Pretty high undecideds?
Insurance Commissioner - But he lost 70 pounds. Yeah, I didn't think we were going to win this.

Prop 85 - Hopefully just MOE movement
Prop 86 - Tied, which is usually bad for Props
Prop 87 - Looks like it will lose, sigh
Prop 90 - Extreme Prop. going down

[Raoul Takemoto]

McClintock might pull this out if Schwarzenegger has coattails. 

Sec. of State is very close, as is Controller.  I agree, there are a startling number of undecideds for controller.

It looks like Jerry Brown has the Atty. General's race wrapped up; Poochigian is too much of an unknown statewide (although Ben Stein has a humorous radio commercial for him). Poochigian's ads, while slamming Brown on the death penalty, hasn't done enough. 

Treasurer - Lockyer has this in the bag. 

Ins. Commissioner - CA voters are tired of Bustamonte.

The bottom line: Will Schwarzenegger's coattails pull all of the major statewide races except Atty. General and Treasurer to the GOP?  If so, it will be a ray of sunshine for the GOP in what may be a pretty dreary election day overall.

[JohnCA246]

Phil is just a horrible candidate.  I knew he was going to lose.  I'll enver forigve the California Democratic establishment for derailing Westly and saying we HAD to vote for Angelides.

[JohnCA246]

Survey USA has a 43% approval rating and 52% disapproval for Arnold. Im sure that has changed a bit, but talk about a blown race.  Feinstein, Boxer, Maxine Waters, and whoever else caused this mess should be embarrassed.  Westly was winning in the primary and against Schwarzenegger, until them and the unions deceided we "owed' it to Angelides.  They ran all those nasty adds which Westly respodned with nasty adds.  I'm so angry I'd be temped to vote against all those people in the primaries next time.  Im NEVER giving money to the California Democratic Party eigther, jsut individual candidates I like.

And why the hell is Bustamante or even Jerry Brown running?  I swear the Democrats pick nominations like it was a fraternity.  No one pays attention to Insurance Commissoner, that should be an easy win.  But no, the Northern California fraternity hand-picks their favorites, who are losers.

[HardRCafé]

Lt. Governor:
Garamendi (D): 44% (41)
McClintock (R): 43% (39)

Sleeper race of the year?

[Alcon]

Lt. Governor:
Garamendi (D): 44% (41)
McClintock (R): 43% (39)

Sleeper race of the year?

It's been close for a while, so I'm not sure why it would be much of a "sleeper."

And certainly, I'd say Idaho's Gubernatorial race qualifies for that title above this any day.  But I suppose this is one of the only pleasant surprises the GOP has, so I guess this is their best "sleeper race."  Not that that's saying much.

[HardRCafé]

It's been close for a while, so I'm not sure why it would be much of a "sleeper."

McClintock is famous, nationally, and this is the first mention he even has a race since the primary.

And yes, I realize he is not as famous as Young Jeezy or whoever.

[Alcon]

It's been close for a while, so I'm not sure why it would be much of a "sleeper."

McClintock is famous, nationally, and this is the first mention he even has a race since the primary.

And yes, I realize he is not as famous as Young Jeezy or whoever.

No...it's not.  You see the numbers next to those percentages?  They're the last poll numbers.  Garamendi has gone from +2 to...+1.

It's probably a sad reflection on my knowledge of pop culture that I know more about Tom McClintock than Young Jeezy or whomever.

[Sam Spade]

I'm going to toot my own horn a little here, but the moment Angelides was picked, I put Arnold in Lean R (the polls were clearly saying toss-up at the time) and boldly predicted Arnold would win this one quite easily.

California may be one state, with the exception of CA-11, that goes against the national trends this year.  I would not be surprised if Arnold pulls McClintock over the line and possibly one or both of the SOS and Controller positions.

[Citizen James]

Phil is just a horrible candidate.  I knew he was going to lose.  I'll enver forigve the California Democratic establishment for derailing Westly and saying we HAD to vote for Angelides.

I voted for Westly.  I agree, this is a self-inflicted wound.

I'm actually going to predict the McClintock pulls it off.  He got third in the recall election, though a right winger is a very straight shooter (he calls it like he sees it, and is rather popular with moderates in his home county as well as mainstream conservatives.

Heck, my die-hard liberal father just endorsed him,  (an act akin to Feingold endorsing Bush) much to my shock.  (most likely because as a reporter he has met McClintock several times, and he says he's a honorable guy.)

[Rob]

I'm actually going to predict the McClintock pulls it off.  He got third in the recall election, though a right winger is a very straight shooter (he calls it like he sees it, and is rather popular with moderates in his home county as well as mainstream conservatives.

I have to admit that I like McClintock as well. He seems like an upstanding, principled conservative, and he impressed me during the recall. He's certainly much more presentable than the buffoonish Arnold. I wouldn't vote for him, understand, but yeah... he's a straight-shooter.

I'm going to predict that he rides Arnold's coattails to a narrow win. If I'm right, he narrowly loses the governorship to Gavin Newsom in 2010. (Isn't prognosticating fun... )

[The Duke]

I just thought I'd dig up some quotes from our past:

A new poll has 40% approve, 50% disapprove. Even Bush never had numbers that bad.

Where are all of the people who were telling us that Arnold is invincible?

My three word analysis: Arnold is toast.

I hope Terminator 4 is good.

Feeling good guys?

Don't think he's invincible?  Think again.

By the time 2006 rolls around, he won't have a 40-50 approve-disapprove rating, and its stupid to pretend he will.

By the time 2006 rolls around, he'll have more money in the bank than any gubernotorial candidate in history.  The Democrats will have a primary, I guess between Westly and Angelides that will consume a lot of their money.

To paraphrase Jim Fassel:

Anyone who wants in get in, anyone who wants out get out.  Arnold Schwarzenegger will be re-elected.

Its typical for Governors here to have low ratings a year out from re-election.

In 1994, everybody though Pete Wilson was done, that Kathleen Brown was a shoo-in for Governor.  Didn't turn out that way.  Pete latched onto immigration reform and won re-election.

In 2002, everybody though Davis was done.  Then he sabotaged Riordan's campaign and beat Bill Simon.  Pat Brown in 1962 had low ratings, that's why Nixon thought it was a good idea to run for Governor.

I own this state.

[Alcon]

You were totally right John...even about the not having 50-40 disapproval (although I doubt you meant it this way )

[The Duke]

You were totally right John...even about the not having 50-40 disapproval (although I doubt you meant it this way )

I was absolutley right.  Read it again.  I said he would not have a 40-50 approve-disapprove rating (Which is about what he had a year ago).  He would not have a 40% approve 50% disapprove rating.  And he does not.

[Alcon]

You were totally right John...even about the not having 50-40 disapproval (although I doubt you meant it this way )

I was absolutley right.  Read it again.  I said he would not have a 40-50 approve-disapprove rating (Which is about what he had a year ago).  He would not have a 40% approve 50% disapprove rating.  And he does not.

I know...that's what I said...

Although, checking the numbers, he actually has an approval pretty close to 50-40 down in the polls I can find.  I was thinking that he was further down...when I first read those comments, I thought that you were saying he'd have better than 40-50, and I was saying "even though I doubt you meant it that way" because of that.

Am I making any sense to you?  Because I'm barely to myself.

[Raoul Takemoto]

My progressive-leaning wife just told me she's supporting McClintock.  Methinks he rides in on Arnold's coattails.

I too, voted for Westly in the primary. Angelides has been an awful candidate, and will hurt Dems statewide (I live in CA-11, so the thought of another Pombo victory is numbing!)