Couple of interesting points from the Hotline

[poughies]

1. Reuters/Zogby has Dems up in six of the seven competitive races; they have Corker (R) leading Ford (D) in TN by ten points. It also has Tester (D) leading Burns (R) by a point. In TN, btw, we're told that the GOP internal track has Corker up two. (Hotline). Here's the Times-CBS poll.
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2. The DSCC's Schumer holds a pen and pad to announce that the party is snapping up all available ad time in can find in AZ.

Why AZ? Here'a a memo from pollsters Paul Harstad and Chris Keating the DSCC will release today: "According to our October 29 to 31 survey of 745 likely Arizona voters, fully 30% of the Arizona electorate has already voted. We expect that perhaps up to two-fifths of the voters in this election will vote early or by absentee ballot. In our October 8 to 31 tracking polls (since early voting started) we have interviewed a total of 594 early voters. Among these early voters, Jim Pederson is leading Jon Kyl by 4 points: 44% for Pederson compared to 40% for Kyl, with 4% for other candidates and 12% refused. This 4% Pederson lead is all the more remarkable since registered Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to have voted early, and in fact there are more Republicans than Democrats in this early-voting sample of 594 respondents." (Hotline)

Hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com

[gorkay]

The info about Arizona is interesting, and shows that the news for Republicans Tuesday night may be much worse than they anticipated. On the other hand, I'm beginning to think that Conrad Burns is going to pull it out (so to speak)... that race has gotten closer and closer.

Any Democrat who loses a close race will have the consolation of getting to blame it on John Kerry.

[agcatter]

.....and just in.  Kerry leading Bush in exit polling in Florida, Ohio.  Colorado and Virginia neck and neck.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Don't remind me of the last time I had hope in regards to the electoral practices of the American populous.

[Eraserhead]

Hmm is this actually true? I suspect not..but if it is..this is going to be a rough night for Republicans to say the least. There has been a lot of sudden buzz regarding this race over the last few days.

[Gustaf]

On the other hand, there has been buzz about Arizona for as long as I can remember this election cycle. But nothing ever happened...once an actual independent poll of Arizona voters shows Pederson at least tied I'll take this seriously.

But there is nothing wrong with trying to level the playing field. As someone said, Burns could be on his way towards a come-back. The Democrats are reaching their absolute max now and they have to win a lot of marginal senate seats to carry the day.

[Sam Spade]

People who believe publicly released campaign strategy memos (regardless of party) are most likely going to be disappointed on election day. (kinda like the Republicans on early voting in certain states also)

The Democrats have good reason to spend in Arizona already.  This poll is not one of them.

[AuH2O]

Pederson's chances are about the same as DeWine's.

[Gustaf]

Pederson's chances are about the same as DeWine's.

I disagree. Looking at the polls, the high number of undecideds mean that Pederson still seems stuck at 45% or so. While that is still quite a lot considering how close we are to election day, Brown is in a much better position given how he at 50% or above.

[Sam Spade]

On the other hand, there has been buzz about Arizona for as long as I can remember this election cycle. But nothing ever happened...once an actual independent poll of Arizona voters shows Pederson at least tied I'll take this seriously.

But there is nothing wrong with trying to level the playing field. As someone said, Burns could be on his way towards a come-back. The Democrats are reaching their absolute max now and they have to win a lot of marginal senate seats to carry the day.

Burns' chances keep rising every day as far as I can tell.  It is quite amazing to me, but he has got a hold of Tester on this tax issue and refuses to let go.  And it's working, which is quite understandable in Montana.

If he actually does come back, it'll be the most amazing return from the dead I've seen since Jesse Helms in 1984.

[Eraserhead]

On the other hand, there has been buzz about Arizona for as long as I can remember this election cycle. But nothing ever happened...once an actual independent poll of Arizona voters shows Pederson at least tied I'll take this seriously.

But there is nothing wrong with trying to level the playing field. As someone said, Burns could be on his way towards a come-back. The Democrats are reaching their absolute max now and they have to win a lot of marginal senate seats to carry the day.

Burns' chances keep rising every day as far as I can tell.  It is quite amazing to me, but he has got a hold of Tester on this tax issue and refuses to let go.  And it's working, which is quite understandable in Montana.

If he actually does come back, it'll be the most amazing return from the dead I've seen since Jesse Helms in 1984.

Well it remains to be seen if the "Burns comeback" is going anywhere. Rasmussen's last poll had him doing slightly worse in comparison to Tester than he did in the poll before that and now we have this Zogby poll where Burns is only a point behind..but it's a Zogby poll.

[Rococo4]

I dont think there is any doubt Burns is coming back.......I just dont know if he can make it all the way back.

[Sam Spade]

On the other hand, there has been buzz about Arizona for as long as I can remember this election cycle. But nothing ever happened...once an actual independent poll of Arizona voters shows Pederson at least tied I'll take this seriously.

But there is nothing wrong with trying to level the playing field. As someone said, Burns could be on his way towards a come-back. The Democrats are reaching their absolute max now and they have to win a lot of marginal senate seats to carry the day.

Burns' chances keep rising every day as far as I can tell.  It is quite amazing to me, but he has got a hold of Tester on this tax issue and refuses to let go.  And it's working, which is quite understandable in Montana.

If he actually does come back, it'll be the most amazing return from the dead I've seen since Jesse Helms in 1984.

Well it remains to be seen if the "Burns comeback" is going anywhere. Rasmussen's last poll had him doing slightly worse in comparison to Tester than he did in the poll before that and now we have this Zogby poll where Burns is only a point ahead..but it's a Zogby poll.

Well, the Burns' comeback obviously went somewhere, because he was behind by 10 points about a month ago and he is clearly behind by under 5 points now.  I still don't think he will comeback in the end, but I give it more credence than you do because serious entities (not the NRSC) are starting to reinvest and deploy in Montana and that means a good bit in my book, especially for a party (the Republicans) who are facing a whole lot of seats to defend this year.

[Adlai Stevenson]

O God I really hope Burns does not survive; he is one of the GOP faces who symbolise everything that is wrong in Washington.  If he wins it will be like Jim Bunning vs. Daniel Mongiardo in Kentucky 2004. 

[Eraserhead]

New Rasmussen poll has Burns down 4%. 50%-46%. I'm not sure if that is with leaners or not though. If it is we should be good.

[The Vorlon]

On the other hand, there has been buzz about Arizona for as long as I can remember this election cycle. But nothing ever happened...once an actual independent poll of Arizona voters shows Pederson at least tied I'll take this seriously.

But there is nothing wrong with trying to level the playing field. As someone said, Burns could be on his way towards a come-back. The Democrats are reaching their absolute max now and they have to win a lot of marginal senate seats to carry the day.

Burns' chances keep rising every day as far as I can tell.  It is quite amazing to me, but he has got a hold of Tester on this tax issue and refuses to let go.  And it's working, which is quite understandable in Montana.

If he actually does come back, it'll be the most amazing return from the dead I've seen since Jesse Helms in 1984.

Burns is a crook.

He may still win, but he is STILL a crook.

You can't re-elect people who take bribes and continue to call your self a functional democracy.

[Nym90]

Well, maybe if he wins Burns will go to prison and Schweitzer can then appoint a Dem. Though if Tester loses this race, I wouldn't support appointing him.

[Sam Spade]

On the other hand, there has been buzz about Arizona for as long as I can remember this election cycle. But nothing ever happened...once an actual independent poll of Arizona voters shows Pederson at least tied I'll take this seriously.

But there is nothing wrong with trying to level the playing field. As someone said, Burns could be on his way towards a come-back. The Democrats are reaching their absolute max now and they have to win a lot of marginal senate seats to carry the day.

Burns' chances keep rising every day as far as I can tell.  It is quite amazing to me, but he has got a hold of Tester on this tax issue and refuses to let go.  And it's working, which is quite understandable in Montana.

If he actually does come back, it'll be the most amazing return from the dead I've seen since Jesse Helms in 1984.

Burns is a crook.

He may still win, but he is STILL a crook.

You can't re-elect people who take bribes and continue to call your self a functional democracy.

I'm not denying any points you've made there at all.  Just reading the polling tea leaves and commenting on why movement is occurring 

Of course, I've never really thought the US was a democracy anyway, but that's a separate point.