Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball Predictions

[Democratic Hawk]

Larry Sabato has made his predictions, which you can find here:

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2006110201

The Senate

The Crystal Ball predicts Democrats +6 = 51 D / 49 R

Dem's pick-up Pennsylvania (solid); Ohio (likely); Montana and Rhode Island (lean); Virginia and Missouri (toss-up)

The House

The Crystal Ball predicts Democrats + 27 = 230 D / 205 R

The Governors

The Crystal Ball predicts Democrats +7 = 29 D / 21 R

New York (solid); Arkansas, Colorado, Massachusetts and Ohio (likely); Maryland (lean) and Minnesota (toss-up)

Note: He says they'll be back on Monday morning with any last-minute alterations to the predictions list

Dave

[J. J.]

MT and RI are both tightening.  If the election were held last Tuesday, it  might have been correct.

[Deano963]

MT and RI are both tightening.  If the election were held last Tuesday, it  might have been correct.

RI is not tightening.

[sethm0]

 Sabato is a smart guy. I agree with his Senate and Governors predictions, but I think he goes a little far with some of the House predictions. He picks JD Hayworth to lose on little more than a hunch and picks the Republicans to lose all three CT seats - I think one or maybe two of the three is more likely. On the whole, his house predictions just seem to be based on less than the Cook or (biased) Real Clear Politics analyses.

[mgrossbe]

the latest polling has hayworth trailing mitchell.

[Soaring Eagle]

I think these are very accurate predictions.

I'm glad to see that he has IL-06 (the district I grew up in) as a Democratic pickup. I've been following that race closely and realize that Peter Roskam is a typical extremist Republican who will be a Bushbot in Congress should he be elected. Which, thankfully, probably won't happen.

[Gustaf]

He thinks Casey is a safer winner than Ben Nelson or Maria Cantwell or Amy Klobuchar? Err...there went his credibility as far as I'm concerned.

[nlm]

Sabato and Rothenberg aren't just smart - they have a great deal of data. Beyond the poll numbers they have early voting surveys and the full break downs of how early voting is going in terms of which party folks are with (not how they voted) - and more I'm sure.

Sabato's and Rothenberg's predictions are not iron clad - but given their records, experience, and access to data - I wouldn't bet against them, most notably when they are so similar.

[gorkay]

Wow. I'm surprised at Sabato's predictions... he usually favors Republicans, but he's even more sanguine about the Democrats than I am.

[Eraserhead]

These look pretty good for the most part.

[Reds4]

I've seen a couple places saying NE is leaning toward Nelson, and yet I've seen zero polls out of Nebraska. Anyone seen any?

[Gabu]

I've seen a couple places saying NE is leaning toward Nelson, and yet I've seen zero polls out of Nebraska. Anyone seen any?

There have been six so far, all from Rasmussen, and all showing Nelson +20 or so.  Hardly "leaning".  I'd call that "safe".

[Democratic Hawk]

The House

The Crystal Ball predicts Democrats + 27 = 230 D / 205 R


Note: He says they'll be back on Monday morning with any last-minute alterations to the predictions list

Sabato has made his final predictions:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2006110601

Basically, he is now predicting that the Democrats will pick up 29 seats = 232 Democrats / 203 Republicans

Dave

[afleitch]

He seems pretty optimistic.

[Rob]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2006110601

Some interesting comments in here:

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Ha, music to BRTD's ears.

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I'm predicting this.

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That would be nice.

[Democratic Hawk]

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I'm predicting this.

That Kleeb wins , Rob?

Dave