The GOP's overrated GOTV operation

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For all the talk we hear about how it's much better than the Democrats' and how some here think it can save candidates even if they are down double digits, I thought it'd be interesting to point out how that's hardly the case. Dave still has the polls from 2004, so let's compare these to the actual results in swing states:

Ohio

This is the one where the GOP GOTV operation is touted the most of winning the state and the election for Bush. But look at the last few polls:

2004-10-31   Survey USA B +2
2004-10-31   University of Cincinnati B +1
2004-10-31   Gallup K +4
2004-10-29   Mason-Dixon B +2   
2004-10-28   Mason-Dixon B +3   
2004-10-27   Strategic Vision B +1

Result B +2

There was also something clearly wrong with that last Gallup from the other states' results, which Gallup has even admitted, so we can toss that one. The last poll taken actually nailed the results, and all other previous polls were close. As you can see the GOTV operation hardly won it for Bush, and possibly had no effect at all.

Pennsylvania

2004-11-01   Survey USA K +1
2004-10-31   Quinnipiac University Tie
2004-10-31   Gallup B +4
2004-10-29   Mason-Dixon K +2
2004-10-27   Strategic Vision Tie
2004-10-27   West Chester University   K +5
2004-10-26   Quinnipiac University B +2

Result K +2.5

M-D pretty much nailed it a few days earlier, but everything else was showing more favorable for Bush, although within the MoE. But the only poll where Kerry had a larger margin was a crap uni poll, so we can see that the GOP GOTV operation clearly didn't do wonders.

Wisconsin

2004-10-30   Gallup B +8
2004-10-29   Mason-Dixon K +2
2004-10-27   Strategic Vision B +3
2004-10-27   ARG K +1

Result K +0.4

OK, that last Gallup was trash, no question, and Kerry did probably make some last minute comeback and SV was probably off by a bit even though within the MoE. The GOP's GOTV operation probably did help here, but a we can see, it still wasn't enough to even overcome a 2 point margin.

New Mexico


2004-10-30   ARG K +1
2004-10-29   Mason-Dixon B +4
2004-10-29   Research & Polling Inc B +3
2004-10-26   Rasmussen B +4

Result B +0.8

ARG was probably better than anyone else in terms of numbers, they just picked the wrong side. But based on these numbers, one would expect a Bush victory by at least a few points assuming a truly superior GOTV operation. That didn't happen.

Minnesota

2004-10-30   Gallup K +8
2004-10-29   Mason-Dixon B +1   
2004-10-26   Strategic Vision B +2
2004-10-26   Humphrey Institute B +3
2004-10-20   Strategic Vision Tie   
2004-10-18   Mason-Dixon B +2

Result K +3.5

I'm damn proud of this. Throw out that awful last Gallup, and you'll see why. Who has the better GOTV machine here?

Plenty other states you can look at, but I have yet to see any examples that the GOP GOTV machine is so great that it can overcome massive and even double digit defecits, as some have claimed.

[TheresNoMoney]

The Democratic GOTV operation here in NH is much more organized and effective than the Republican operation.

[Sam Spade]

Who said GOTV operations can save candidates who are down double-digits?  That would be BS in my mind.  Though I would say that good GOTV helps more in mid-term elections than in Presidential ones if the people you get out to vote actually vote for you.

What changed was this:  the Dems ran the same GOTV effort in 2004 that they did in 2000.  That effort provided them wins in a number of close states in 2000, probably to the tune of adding 2%-3% to their vote.  What the GOP did in 2004 was equalize that turnout machine, so that the parties were on equal footing.

In this midterm, the Dems have not been spending the money on their GOTV effort as Republicans have.  That is what is causing people to think the Republicans may have an advantage there.  But I can't see it being more than the 2%-3% we saw in 2000.  And it might not be that if the Republicans turn out voters who won't vote for them.

On your list of races, first you should know after all these years that the polls in New Mexico and Wisconsin are never to be trusted.  The GOP GOTV operation sucked in Minnesota in 2004.  That state and Wisconsin were the two states where I know the operation underperformed.  Ohio and PA are simply examples of what I was referring to above.  Besides, the polls in those states are normal and don't act weirdly.  And they didn't in 2004.

[Deano963]

It should also be mentioned that Ohio's ballot initiative to ban gay marriage in '04 helped Bush immensely in the state. Most pollsters said it drove up overall turnout by at least 2%, which is coincidentally the margin Bush won by. Take away gay amrriage, and the state may have gone to Kerry. The repubs' gotv is definitely overrated.

Now that gay marriage is banned, and what are the republicans going to rely on in the future to get conservatives to the polls in Ohio?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Who said GOTV operations can save candidates who are down double-digits?  That would be BS in my mind.  Though I would say that good GOTV helps more in mid-term elections than in Presidential ones if the people you get out to vote actually vote for you.

I'm not going to name names as this topic will turn this thread into another 5 page bitch-fest, but here's a hint: Someone whose name begins with "S" saying that a candidate whose name also begins with "S" in one of the states mentioned above.

I've also seen some throw out this possibility for DeWine, although that was a few weeks ago when he wasn't in such bad shape.

[Deano963]

Who said GOTV operations can save candidates who are down double-digits?  That would be BS in my mind. 

Plenty of people on this forum have, actually. Every single one of them is a staunch Santorum supporter, however, so it's to be taken with a dumptruck full of salt. Just pointing out that at least a few hacks here have said as mcuh.

 But obviously every sane person here agrees with you - a superb GOTV can make up a 1-2 point gap, 3 points at the very very very most. Only delusional people believe GOTV operations can make up a Santorum-like gap.

[Sam Spade]

Who said GOTV operations can save candidates who are down double-digits?  That would be BS in my mind.  Though I would say that good GOTV helps more in mid-term elections than in Presidential ones if the people you get out to vote actually vote for you.

I'm not going to name names as this topic will turn this thread into another 5 page bitch-fest, but here's a hint: Someone whose name begins with "S" saying that a candidate whose name also begins with "S" in one of the states mentioned above.

I've also seen some throw out this possibility for DeWine, although that was a few weeks ago when he wasn't in such bad shape.

That's nice, but I wish you would keep your own personal issues off the forum.  Thanks. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Who said GOTV operations can save candidates who are down double-digits?  That would be BS in my mind.  Though I would say that good GOTV helps more in mid-term elections than in Presidential ones if the people you get out to vote actually vote for you.

I'm not going to name names as this topic will turn this thread into another 5 page bitch-fest, but here's a hint: Someone whose name begins with "S" saying that a candidate whose name also begins with "S" in one of the states mentioned above.

I've also seen some throw out this possibility for DeWine, although that was a few weeks ago when he wasn't in such bad shape.

That's nice, but I wish you would keep your own personal issues off the forum.  Thanks. 

Ooops, sorry, didn't even notice that. Wasn't referring to you.

Actually Deano just said above. I remember Soulty posting once about how the GOP's vastly superior GOTV operation could win it for Santorum.

[Stranger in a strange land]

it's interesting. A lot of ppl do seem to think GOP GOTV will pull through for them on election day, though in retrospect the 2004 result wasn't that much of a surprise (except for in NJ and PA, which were a lot closer than anyone expected, and in FL, where Bush's margin was a lot wider) but yeah in general the outcome was pretty consistent with the polls.

A lot of conservative blogs are saying Santorum will win. I can't tell if they actually believe it or if that's what they're just telling themselves to feel better and not have to face harsh reality.

[Sam Spade]

Who said GOTV operations can save candidates who are down double-digits?  That would be BS in my mind.  Though I would say that good GOTV helps more in mid-term elections than in Presidential ones if the people you get out to vote actually vote for you.

I'm not going to name names as this topic will turn this thread into another 5 page bitch-fest, but here's a hint: Someone whose name begins with "S" saying that a candidate whose name also begins with "S" in one of the states mentioned above.

I've also seen some throw out this possibility for DeWine, although that was a few weeks ago when he wasn't in such bad shape.

That's nice, but I wish you would keep your own personal issues off the forum.  Thanks. 

Ooops, sorry, didn't even notice that. Wasn't referring to you.

Actually Deano just said above. I remember Soulty posting once about how the GOP's vastly superior GOTV operation could win it for Santorum.

I understand your need to feel like you must vindicate yourself at every possible opportunity, but I would suggest that this forum is not the place to do so, at least not until Election Night.

Besides, it's rather uncouth, crass and ill-bred (to use a statement of one of my favorite former teachers).

[Keystone Phil]

I remember Soulty posting once about how the GOP's vastly superior GOTV operation could win it for Santorum.

Have you set a foot in PA and seen either campaign?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I remember Soulty posting once about how the GOP's vastly superior GOTV operation could win it for Santorum.

Have you set a foot in PA and seen either campaign?

No. I've also never been to a NASCAR event, but I can still say that no NASCAR vehicle can travel over the speed of light.

Do you think a GOTV operation that netted probably no advantage at all in 2004 is going to make up a double digit defecit? That's not a mock, just an honest question.

[Keystone Phil]

No. I've also never been to a NASCAR event, but I can still say that no NASCAR vehicle can travel over the speed of light.

Terrible comparison from a terribly moronic poster.

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Maybe they won't but you are in no place to call it an insane idea when other more experienced people have praised Santorum's team for delivering in the past. I wouldn't argue with you if you provided analysis saying Hatch's people have a terrific ground game planned for Election day because I've never seen them in action. You've not only never seen Santorum's people motivated before but you've also ignored the fact that his team has a good reputation in turning out the vote.

[Deano963]

Who said GOTV operations can save candidates who are down double-digits?  That would be BS in my mind.  Though I would say that good GOTV helps more in mid-term elections than in Presidential ones if the people you get out to vote actually vote for you.

I'm not going to name names as this topic will turn this thread into another 5 page bitch-fest, but here's a hint: Someone whose name begins with "S" saying that a candidate whose name also begins with "S" in one of the states mentioned above.

I've also seen some throw out this possibility for DeWine, although that was a few weeks ago when he wasn't in such bad shape.

That's nice, but I wish you would keep your own personal issues off the forum.  Thanks. 

 I remember Soulty posting once about how the GOP's vastly superior GOTV operation could win it for Santorum.

Yeh Soulty is who I was referring to as well. I remember the same thread you are referring to. I specifically remember him telling me that the Dems' campaign office stays open until 6 on election day making turnout calls, and that Santorum's and the republicans' will be open until 9. This was his basis for saying that Santorum's turnout would destroy Casey on the ground and close a double-digit gap.

A day or two later I saw that Pennsylvania's polls close at 8pm on Election Day.

So apparently the republicans will be phonebanking on Election Day in PA one full hour after the polls have closed. Yeh..... I'm shaking in my boots.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I do believe that Hatch and the DFL's GOTV effort will be better, but that's because we actually have performed so well in the past, as I pointed out above.

If I were to say that Tim Walz, the candidate I have done the most work for, had a ground game set up so good he was going to win by 10 points, most people no doubt would call me a delusional hack even though I actually have worked on that personally. But hey, we'll see what happens on election day.

[Nym90]

Yeah, I agree it's overrated. It is delusional to think it could make more than a 3 point difference based on past results (and in fact in PA Kerry ended up doing better than most polls were predicting), but who knows? We'll find out in 4 days.

[The Duke]

The reason people thought the GOTV was so great for Republicans was not so much that Bush outperformed the polls.  The reason people said it was so great was that everyone thought if turnout was high, Bush was dead.  Well, when over 120 million people showed up to vote and Bush won, it became pretty clear that the Republicans were a lot better at turning out the vote than people thought.

Percentages are not the only relevant number here.  Raw vote totals matter, too, especially when judging turnout efforts.  Very few people thought the GOP could get 62 million people to the polls (12 million more votes than they got in 2004), and it is the raw vote totals that impressed people so much.

Furthermore, if you look at the way this turnout program works, you'll see (BRTD's manipulating of numbers aside) that the mechanics of the program are very impressive.  The program is much more sophisticated than anything Republicans have had in the past.  I don't even know why someone would argue that Republicans have not made huge strides in the mechanics of getting out the vote in the last six years, but whatever.

Where I disagree with a lot of the praise for the GOTV machine that Republicans are heaping on is this - no, your program is not light years ahead of Democrats.  Democrats have spent forty years kicking our ass at GOTV.  The only things that is different now is that we have closed the gap so that we may actually be a little bit better (but only a little bit, if that).  Democrats have not made huge strides at GOTV in the last few years for one reason and only one reason: They were already so good at it that there was little room for improvement.

Bottom line: Republican technical skill will not erase the poll deficit they face.  The Democrats will control the House of Representatives barring a shocking reversal of fortune.