Will we be electing the 45th President in 2012, or re-electing #44?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Barring any changes in administrations in mid-term, what do you think?

I personally think we will be electing the 45th.  Though, if the 40-year history cycle continues, we will be electing #46 in 2016 due to the resignation of #44.

[Reignman]

probably re-elected. the economy will be good in 2012.

[cp]

If the President is a Democrat: reelecting.
If the President is a Republican: electing.

I don't mean to sound partisan, but think about it. If the Dems win in 2008 it'll be with a nice, clean moderate (Evan Bayh, Mark Warner, etc.) who would dominate the centre, or with Rodham Clinton, who'd be more likely to serve a third term than end after her first (she's a machine, remember).

If a Republican wins, they'll never shake the Bush legacy. Unless they pull out of Iraq (a surefire way to lose in 2012), they'd be forever associated with the war and its instigator. Plus, every time since WWII one party held the Whitehouse for more than 2 terms, the incumbent was defeated.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Also, remember, that this country has not had, and correct me if I'm wrong, three consecutive 8-year Presidents since numbers 3-5 1801-1825 with Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and James Monroe.  So, history would be against the re-election bid of the 44th President.

[Jake]

Whoever is elected in 2008 will have the wonderful task of cleaning up Bush's Iraq mess, Congress'/Bush's budget mess, and prosecuting the War on Terror and whatever happens with Iran and North Korea. Based on that, I'd say the odds are not good that they'll survive their term, but a Democrat or moderate Republican is more likely to survive.